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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1761 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
In my opinion, if we do get to $60, never mind $70 the US will drown in crude oil as the shale plays all ramp production.

They are already starting. This is from weekly data.
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  #1762 (permalink)
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IMO John does an excellent job of modeling the /CL market. He can be found at Topstep Trader Utube channel

Today 12-14-16



-William

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  #1763 (permalink)
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Baker Hughes Rig Count, December 16, 2016 - Business Insider

Oil rig count jumps for 7th straight week


Up 12 more... grounds getting wet, is that rain or oil.

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  #1764 (permalink)
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saying that... I believe todays Commitment of Traders report, shows the largest Non-Commercial Net Long position for at least 6 years, and I think ever.

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  #1765 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
saying that... I believe todays Commitment of Traders report, shows the largest Non-Commercial Net Long position for at least 6 years, and I think ever.

I remember what happend last time when the Net Short positions were at their maximum and everybody was saying "there could not be a deal".

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  #1766 (permalink)
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Can I ask a stupid newbie CL question here?

(apologies in advance for not reading the whole thread up to here)

1. Do you all look at sentiment?

1. If so what kind of indicators do you follow?

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  #1767 (permalink)
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Good place to start is the video I posted above

- William


suko View Post
Can I ask a stupid newbie CL question here?

(apologies in advance for not reading the whole thread up to here)

1. Do you all look at sentiment?

1. If so what kind of indicators do you follow?


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  #1768 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
saying that... I believe todays Commitment of Traders report, shows the largest Non-Commercial Net Long position for at least 6 years, and I think ever.

Well they are sounding a trumpet for the big trading houses to take things down, aren't they. Those big old alligators can see when everyone is on the same side of the boat.

If it was me I would be looking at the seasonal chart. Oh guess what the refiners stop buying right now so they don't have to pay year end inventory tax. Then January and February we fall off a cliff as winter driving is reflected in production numbers. Remember last year when the smart guys managing other people's money put on a huge short. It was a money maker until the Niger Delta Avengers shut down Nigerian production and Libya or Angola or somebody else stopped shipping also. Then the big boys said now (insert Trading Places film clip) and they squeezed the living daylights out of those CMF's and people like us.

Media has an unlimited number of stories on tap about failed OPEC quota's and cheating. The "cuts" don't start until January. How many boats above last year are headed for Singapore, Rotterdam and the Gulf Loop right now from that pre-deal record production. You know they are going to end up in the weekly number just as the refiners cut back.

If they pull off a short then they can always reverse to a squeeze later this winter when the cuts do actually show up along with more jaw boning out of Saudi sources protecting the value of their IPO.

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  #1769 (permalink)
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@1Week1Trade I don't trade fixed price, but my opinion is very similar to yours.

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  #1770 (permalink)
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@1Week1Trade

Headline risk

OPEC Cleaning Lady Cuts Finger

/CL jumps + five (5) US clams

Other than that you should be Ok

-William

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