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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1751 (permalink)
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Side comment about volatility products.

The VIX index is not the same product as VIX options. You cannot trade the VIX index itself, but people naturally think you can because VIX option product happens to exist and it has the same name. It's very confusing.

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  #1752 (permalink)
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Exactly. VX options and futures are a derivative of the VIX index but not the actual index.
Just like ES is a derivative of the S&P500 Index.
With regards to Oil Vol, I believe OVX is the index, and that there aren't any tradable derivatives, but I could be wrong.

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  #1753 (permalink)
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Redhouse View Post
There might be some exploitable edge tracking OVX but only for HFT. To the human eye they are effectively lockstep.


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Never mind, OVX just gapped down. It will be interesting to see what follows.


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  #1754 (permalink)
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Baker Hughes rig count, December 2, 2016 - Business Insider

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With $53 oil, how long till this goes exponential again.

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SMCJB View Post
Exactly. VX options and futures are a derivative of the VIX index but not the actual index.
Just like ES is a derivative of the S&P500 Index.
With regards to Oil Vol, I believe OVX is the index, and that there aren't any tradable derivatives, but I could be wrong.

So I just listened to this week's Volatility Views podcast and they did discuss OVX and also OIX, which tracks WTI. Also TYVIX. There are about 30 different volatility indexes. They are even trying to create a social media sentiment volatility index now. People have tried to create products on some of them but mostly failed. VXX is the king.

Extremely valuable podcast, worth listening to, even if you don't trade "the only asset class that matters."

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  #1756 (permalink)
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Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, December 9, 2016 - Business Insider

The US oil rig count jumped this week by 21 to 498, the biggest increase since July 2015 according to driller Baker Hughes.

Hmmm... $50 oil again....

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  #1757 (permalink)
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Non-OPEC #NOPEC to cut ~~ 600K BD

More Monday fun for your viewing pleaseure

-William

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SMCJB View Post
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, December 9, 2016 - Business Insider

The US oil rig count jumped this week by 21 to 498, the biggest increase since July 2015 according to driller Baker Hughes.

Hmmm... $50 oil again....

Drill baby drill. Shale narritive is that their costs keep plunging. They claim they can make money at 50. Certainly rig count turned around this summer. Press says half the rigs are running in the Permian Basin, in the sweet spot. Media says Da Boyz locked in a lot of 2017 production over this month of OPEC jaw boning prices higher.

My thesis is that they jerk higher on this Saturday deal. Media is already turned negative. Cuts don't happen until January so there is plenty of time for some really ugly inventory. Once cuts start media will be flooded with cheating stories. Saudi needs the shorts to pile in. Then, when the seasonals are ready they cut like crazy and use short covering to trigger an epic rally leading to them collecting billions from the western capital markets. After that the deal fails, the market goes to hell. Shale guys limp into 2018 then once again the re-orgs start wiping out the gulable debt holders.

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Bloomberg :- Saudis Signal Deeper Cuts After Deal With Non-OPEC Countries

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Morningstar Commodities Research :- OPEC and NOPEC Cuts to Benefit U.S. Crude Exports

Export Volumes Down Slightly Despite Lift of Ban
A year after the export ban was lifted, the volume of U.S. shipments overseas is slightly down compared with 2015. Export volumes depend on premiums for international crudes based on Brent over domestic grades based on West Texas Intermediate. If OPEC and NOPEC production cuts materialize in 2017, then higher prices will encourage new shale production. As soon as increased supplies of shale crude exceed domestic refinery demand, then the Brent premium over WTI will widen to encourage exports. This note reviews 2016 crude exports and prospects for increased shipments during 2017.

To read the complete note, please click here.

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