The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:159,364 / 1,978
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:503

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 503  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1731 (permalink)
Webinar Host
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,727 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,805 given, 10,957 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

OPEC deal could push crude oil to $60?commentary

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
  #1732 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,931 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,626 given, 2,938 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Cold Water: An OPEC Cut Can't Fix Oil's Structural Issues
Short-term production cuts won't change the fact the industry has too much low-cost supply for oil prices to head sustainably higher.

By: Stephen Simko, CFA, Director Energy

To read the complete note, please click here.

Executive Summary
The imminent decision by OPEC to either cut production or maintain its current strategy of maximizing market share is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices. Whatever the outcome of today's meeting, this brief report aims to address what we believe are the key supply aspects underpinning 2017-18 fundamentals, whatever OPEC chooses to do. Our aim is to assist longterm investors with making sense of the implications of whatever supply strategy OPEC ultimately decides to pursue. Whatever strategy OPEC decides upon, the short-term nature of any production cuts and the long-term problem for oil prices that is U.S. shale means our bearish $55/barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, long-term price outlook will not be changing.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #1733 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,629 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 5,534 given, 3,818 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Interesting opposite views in the last two articles posted.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1734 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 681 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 301 given, 601 received

2017 OPEC Chart courtesy of John Kemp

-William

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


EDIT

I think this will work for download etc

EDIT2

A little fuzzy but gets the point across - second image is PDF

Attached Thumbnails
The CL Crude-analysis Thread-opec4cdeal11302016.jpg   The CL Crude-analysis Thread-opecdeal2017.pdf  

Last edited by WilleeMac; November 30th, 2016 at 01:10 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #1735 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boise, Idaho/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage, Schwab
Favorite Futures: TF, ES
 
Posts: 38 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 8 given, 46 received



If you want another view of the deal
Oil Going To $70 By July (Video) | EconMatters

He is looking at the big mouth shale operators like Harold Hamm, you know the guy who sold all his hedges so he could divorce his wife. We know they have all been selling future production at $50, I assume with the "encouragement" of the bankers. Well if this guy is correct and the deal gets us to $70 in July (not unreasonable given $60 last year), then the shale guys are going to be eating 15 to 20 a barrel on their hedges. That should put a lot of extra buying into the market.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1736 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,931 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,626 given, 2,938 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Trailer Guy View Post
If you want another view of the deal
Oil Going To $70 By July (Video) | EconMatters

He is looking at the big mouth shale operators like Harold Hamm, you know the guy who sold all his hedges so he could divorce his wife. We know they have all been selling future production at $50, I assume with the "encouragement" of the bankers. Well if this guy is correct and the deal gets us to $70 in July (not unreasonable given $60 last year), then the shale guys are going to be eating 15 to 20 a barrel on their hedges. That should put a lot of extra buying into the market.

I can't unequivacally say that's false for crude but it definitely would be for Natural Gas. With the evolution of Dodd-Frank, and due to previous hedging cash flow disasters, most producers now hedge directly with the banks on their revolving credit lines. As such they are never out of pocket the cash for underwater hedges, it just counts against their revolvers. They learnt that lesson the hard way.

In my opinion, if we do get to $60, never mind $70 the US will drown in crude oil as the shale plays all ramp production.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1737 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boise, Idaho/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage, Schwab
Favorite Futures: TF, ES
 
Posts: 38 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 8 given, 46 received

Well the point he was making is when we hit peak summer demand there are a lot of contracts out there in that 50 to 55 range so the odds of them being losers have gone up big time. So a lot of deceisons are going to get made this winter, do we sell it at less than market or do we borrow from the bank to buy back our contracts. It seems reasonable that some will be buying back. At the same time I would guess that the refiners and airlines are going to be upping their own hedging if it looks like the cuts stick. And really, if OPEC Russia and Brazil see the light that they make more by producing less then this thing makes sense short term.

I still think it is part of the Saudi long game to do what ever it takes to move price before the Aramco IPO next year. After all that cash trades hands they will be able to punish the crap out of who ever cheats on their quotas.

Morning Star article was decent. The point they are missing is that shale is down roughly 10% from peak output. But the current activity is concentrated in the lowest cost areas. So I just don't see how they can duplicate record output with such a reduced acreage where they can afford to drill.

I will bet that this deal and the reaction to it will cause a big spike in the media commentary and bring a bunch of long only amatures into the market who will be plucked clean by the pro's at least a couple of times between now and July.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Trailer Guy for this post:
 
  #1738 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,931 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,626 given, 2,938 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Trailer Guy View Post
Well the point he was making is when we hit peak summer demand there are a lot of contracts out there in that 50 to 55 range so the odds of them being losers have gone up big time. So a lot of decisions are going to get made this winter, do we sell it at less than market or do we borrow from the bank to buy back our contracts. It seems reasonable that some will be buying back.

I understand but after the last 2 years I don't think there is a bank out there that is loaning shale producers money so that they can unwind underwater hedges. In fact I think the opposite will be true. There will be a lot more hedging done.

Trailer Guy View Post
At the same time I would guess that the refiners and airlines are going to be upping their own hedging if it looks like the cuts stick.

Refiners are long crack spreads not short crude. Airlines I agree but as we know they are often more worried about locking in unfavorable prices that put them at a disadvantage than they are interested in getting an advantage. If your an airline you should have been buying before now.

Trailer Guy View Post
And really, if OPEC Russia and Brazil see the light that they make more by producing less then this thing makes sense short term.

Agree also, but that's often been the case but rarely holds true. Also as long as there is a replacement barrel out there, the strategy fails. Can shale replace any OPEC cut?

Trailer Guy View Post
Morning Star article was decent. The point they are missing is that shale is down roughly 10% from peak output. But the current activity is concentrated in the lowest cost areas. So I just don't see how they can duplicate record output with such a reduced acreage where they can afford to drill.

FWIW Morningstar are a data provider rather than an independent analyst. I only posted it as I thought it was an interesting perspective.

Trailer Guy View Post
I will bet that this deal and the reaction to it will cause a big spike in the media commentary and bring a bunch of long only amateurs into the market who will be plucked clean by the pro's at least a couple of times between now and July.

Agree as well with the exception of the July part.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1739 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 567 since May 2016
Thanks: 1,056 given, 438 received


Trailer Guy View Post
Hot tip today from twitter handle, oil merchant @ energy Rosen

He suggests that in these news heavy OPEC sessions you can not trade oil. So he suggests instead trading volatility products.

Not what the technical traders want to hear, but with a crazy market like CL it could make sense to just bet on the intensity of the insanity.

What does he mean by volatility products?

You can trade oil volatility with options/futures......?

Apols if misunderstood.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
 
  #1740 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boise, Idaho/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: IB, NinjaTrader Brokerage, Schwab
Favorite Futures: TF, ES
 
Posts: 38 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 8 given, 46 received



DaxyMcDaxFace View Post
What does he mean by volatility products?

You can trade oil volatility with options/futures......?

Apols if misunderstood.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

There is an oil version of VIX and I assume a bunch of other derivatives. I posted the comment as I thought it may keep some lambs away from the slaughter, as in a real pro saying stay away from price, just look at volatility.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Trailer Guy for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

July Journal Challenge w/$1100 in prizes from TopstepTrader

July
 

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap

Elite only

Battlestations: Show us your trading desks and win $750 in prizes

August
 

Extended Ask Me Anything w/Brett Steenbarger

Elite only

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 3) w/Ran Aroussi

Elite only

Brannigan Barrett w/Axia Futures

Elite only

Introduction to Phillip Capital futures brokerage services

Aug TBD

How Monte Carlo Analysis Can Help Your Trading w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 02:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 4th, 2014 11:47 PM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 03:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 12:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 09:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:54 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-07-21 in 0.07 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.144.36.228