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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1721 (permalink)
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Lee Saks ‏@Lee_Saks 3m3 minutes ago

#EIA CRUDE STOCKS
PADD1 17.282mb -0.843
PADD2 141.012mb +1.054
PADD3 255.407mb +4.939
PADD4 24.353mb -0.137
PADD5 52.229mb +0.261
#OOTT #OIL

Today I learned

PADD regions enable regional analysis of petroleum product supply and movements - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/transportationfuels/padd5/

PADD Maps: What Are They And Why Are They Important? - Kendrick Oil

-William

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  #1722 (permalink)
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Padd 4 is of course the Rockies and tends to be tiny.
Padd 5 is the west coast and is effectively a separate market.
Hence what people really look at are 1+2+3.

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  #1723 (permalink)
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PADD 1 East coast oil imports last week were the highest week since 2012. The last 15 weeks they have been above average.

Here is a link to my charts. Energies-Weekly Data & Weekly Change are the charts for the weekly EIA report. I added PADD oil imports by region.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/


Last edited by ron99; November 16th, 2016 at 11:00 AM.
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  #1724 (permalink)
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PDF PADD map

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-paddmap-1.pdf

-William

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  #1725 (permalink)
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Impressive Ron

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  #1726 (permalink)
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I occasionally put up my mostly worthless comments on energy on a different forum where I hang out during the day. Crude Oil has given me some very expensive lessons in the past so I handle it with kid gloves. It taught me a life lesson several years ago that being right but having the timing wrong is just as deadly as being wrong. I say this because today was a really great day to see how this market works. We had the normal seasonal build going across the board (gitting fundamental right). For some reason the algo's apparently needed the EIA to confirm what API said yesterday. Duh, it is winter, the imports are flooding in and the refineries are building inventory before they take the winter holidays off.

Of course the masters of the media counter punched with skill. I am on record as expecting the Saudi response to the sell off before the close. Boy was I wrong, those Russians sure have Reuters on speed dial. (getting timing wrong, wait till the OPEC deal fails)

If you haven't been paying attention Da Boyz have a well proven trading plan. The usually young and inexperienced (in my imagination, because I can't visualize an old pro falling for this) hedge fund guys (the sheep for the slaughter) look at the seasonal charts like Ron has done such a wonderful job on, and they see a sure thing. Last week we read that funds were piling into shorts (COT report) and retail was going long USO and the other ETFs. OPEC members and I am guessing some major trading houses (start with Glencore) start laying the trap. All of a sudden you see more stories in the non-specialist publications about upcoming talks and long term estimates of demand. Price moves up a little. Honest folk who post charts note potentially bullish patterns. Last week we had the unusual occurrence of several tankers delaying their unloading causing an suprise 5 million barrel deficit in expected inventory. Anything negative is immediately countered, clearly being run like a political campaign. I can only guess that the insiders are quietly selling future production at the elevated prices. Fund guys end up liquidating their shorts, after all they are all on big leverage, adding to the price volatility. Eventually the negatives are overwhelming, fundamentals win out and price drops hard. The fund guys who held make money but they were sweating it out. The producers sold at a higher price than they should have and the trading house guys made bonus.

I say all this because good discussions of statistics, seasonals and other ins and outs are fundamental to understanding this market in my opinion. But so are media dis-information campaigns, purposely moving product to affect inventory reports and a long list of other actions that look real close to scams.

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  #1727 (permalink)
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I'm seeing a bunch of OPEC news coming across the Twitter Sphere this morning SAT 11-19 +/- 1030amET

SUN MON should prove interesting

#OOTT

Cheers

-William

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  #1728 (permalink)
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Perhaps of use, Twitter for WTI News etc

#OOTT

Go here

Tabs at top

Top -- Latest -- News

Latest is best for finding WTF was that

https://twitter.com/hashtag/oott?vertical=news&src=hash&lang=en

-William

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WilleeMac View Post
Perhaps of use, Twitter for WTI News etc

#OOTT

Go here

Tabs at top

Top -- Latest -- News

Latest is best for finding WTF was that

https://twitter.com/hashtag/oott?vertical=news&src=hash&lang=en

-William

Thx for the tip.

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Hot tip today from twitter handle, oil merchant @ energy Rosen

He suggests that in these news heavy OPEC sessions you can not trade oil. So he suggests instead trading volatility products.

Not what the technical traders want to hear, but with a crazy market like CL it could make sense to just bet on the intensity of the insanity.

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