I occasionally put up my mostly worthless comments on energy on a different forum where I hang out during the day. Crude Oil has given me some very expensive lessons in the past so I handle it with kid gloves. It taught me a life lesson several years ago that being right but having the timing wrong is just as deadly as being wrong. I say this because today was a really great day to see how this market works. We had the normal seasonal build going across the board (gitting fundamental right). For some reason the algo's apparently needed the EIA to confirm what API said yesterday. Duh, it is winter, the imports are flooding in and the refineries are building inventory before they take the winter holidays off.
Of course the masters of the media counter punched with skill. I am on record as expecting the Saudi response to the sell off before the close. Boy was I wrong, those Russians sure have Reuters on speed dial. (getting timing wrong, wait till the OPEC deal fails)
If you haven't been paying attention Da Boyz have a well proven trading plan. The usually young and inexperienced (in my imagination, because I can't visualize an old pro falling for this) hedge fund guys (the sheep for the slaughter) look at the seasonal charts like Ron has done such a wonderful job on, and they see a sure thing. Last week we read that funds were piling into shorts (COT report) and retail was going long USO and the other ETFs. OPEC members and I am guessing some major trading houses (start with Glencore) start laying the trap. All of a sudden you see more stories in the non-specialist publications about upcoming talks and long term estimates of demand. Price moves up a little. Honest folk who post charts note potentially bullish patterns. Last week we had the unusual occurrence of several tankers delaying their unloading causing an suprise 5 million barrel deficit in expected inventory. Anything negative is immediately countered, clearly being run like a political campaign. I can only guess that the insiders are quietly selling future production at the elevated prices. Fund guys end up liquidating their shorts, after all they are all on big leverage, adding to the price volatility. Eventually the negatives are overwhelming, fundamentals win out and price drops hard. The fund guys who held make money but they were sweating it out. The producers sold at a higher price than they should have and the trading house guys made bonus.
I say all this because good discussions of statistics, seasonals and other ins and outs are fundamental to understanding this market in my opinion. But so are media dis-information campaigns, purposely moving product to affect inventory reports and a long list of other actions that look real close to scams.
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