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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1681 (permalink)
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U.S. crude oil storage is filling up with unaccounted-for oil. There is a lot more oil in storage than the amount that can be accounted for by domestic production and imports.

Forbes Welcome

-William

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  #1682 (permalink)
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Key World Energy Statistics

Courtesy of International Energy Agency

International Energy Agency

PDF

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-keyworldenergystats2016.pdf

-William

EDIT

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-energy_statistics_manual.pdf


Last edited by WilleeMac; October 8th, 2016 at 09:14 AM.
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  #1683 (permalink)
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The Billion Barrel Oil Swindle:


80% Of U.S. Oil Reserves Are Unaccounted-For based on this information.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/billion-barrel-oil-swindle-80-230000526.html

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  #1684 (permalink)
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Thursday is going to be a messed-up day, what with the EIA putting out a report without the leased-land inventories in the mix. *clucks* Fun times.

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For the folks that use Twitter as one of their sources/ feeds for news, look into #OOTT

-William

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  #1686 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Today's market report shows the problem for #OPEC: they can't even agree on how much #oil key members are pumping | OPEC Faces Half-Million-Barrel Dispute With Members on Cuts - Bloomberg


#OOTT

H/ T

@samir_Madani
@wenkennedy

-William

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  #1687 (permalink)
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Something I just stumbled across

Futures Radio Show
Episodes related to oil: 81, 82, 92

Episode 74 "Does the Fed Have a Clear Vision?"

Futures Radio Show

-William

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How to profit as Opec throws in the towel

From MoneyWeek

Oil cartel Opec has given up on hoping that US shale oil producers will go bankrupt before its members do.

The world’s oil producers have managed to endure two years of fighting for market share, leaving oil prices to find their own level in a semblance of a “free market”.

But the pain has been too great. Saudi civil servants aren’t used to taking pay cuts of 20%. There’s only so much of that sort of thing a society can tolerate.

So now they’ve called time on the war of attrition. They’re determined to keep oil prices above $50 a barrel.

And with Russia chumming up with the cartel, they might just manage it…

The world’s oil producers have thrown in the towel

Earlier this month, contrary to what everyone (including me) expected, oil cartel Opec managed to come to a sketchy deal to curb output.

Opec agreed to cap their output at 32.5 million barrels of oil a day, starting from next month. From current estimates, that’d be a cut of nearly a million barrels a day. That would be the first production cut in eight years.

That surprising level of agreement triggered a surge in the oil price. And yesterday, at another energy meeting in Istanbul, Russia decided to keep the momentum going. The country – a non-Opec oil producer – said it is ready to join the oil cartel in a deal to trim output.

Quoth Russian president Vladimir Putin: “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join.”

The oil price hit its highest level since this time last year. Both Brent crude (the European benchmark) and WTI (the US one) are above $50 a barrel now.

They will of course, have to deliver on the production cuts to keep this going. But they’d have to be pretty stupid not to. And given the efforts it has taken to get to this point, it would be strange to fall at the last hurdle.

Won’t a higher oil price just encourage US shale producers to ramp up production? Not necessarily, according to respected oil market analyst Gary Ross of US-based PIRA. He tells Reuters that “the timing of this is quite deliberate. Opec is doing this heading into winter and at a time when supply from non-Opec producers is down.”

In short, demand will go up as the cold weather sets in. At the same time, low prices have forced shale producers to cut investment and shed workers over a prolonged period. It’ll take them time to come back from that – enough time to allow Opec to take advantage of higher winter fuel demand.

“The policy to push for market share is over. It’s a matter now of going back to managing the market.”

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Kashagan Filed starts exports

Will it have any effect (sp) on /CL ?

Oil From $50 Billion Kashagan Field Starts Flowing to Export - Bloomberg

-William

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Quoting 
By John Kemp

LONDON, Oct 14 U.S. natural gas prices have surged to the highest level for more than 18 months as stocks continue to build more slowly than normal despite the warm weather.

The price for gas delivered to Henry Hub in March 2017 has risen by 11 percent since the end of September and is up by almost 44 percent since hitting a low back in February

The structure of futures prices has also shifted from a big contango to a small backwardation, with near-term contracts rising much further than prices for deferred deliveries

Futures markets are sending an urgent signal to gas producers about the need for more drilling and to electric utilities to run gas-fired plants for fewer hours this winter to conserve stocks.

Gas stocks typically rise between April and October and then draw down between November and March. But stocks have increased much more slowly than usual this year.

Stocks have risen by less than the five-year average every week since the start of May, a total of 23 consecutive weeks, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

COLUMN-U.S. natural gas prices surge amid supply fears: Kemp | Reuters

Icing on the cake would be a very cold winter (pun intended)



-William

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