The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 167) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,908 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old September 14th, 2016, 09:18 PM   #1661 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7
Favorite Futures: CL, RB, LE
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 102 given, 166 received

Something doesn't smell right in the oil markets. Cannot put my finger on it. It "feels" undervalued. I keep seeing in my head... ~$55 per bbl by the spring of 2017. I hope I am wrong on this, and OPEC's waffling is not helping. *sighs*

Reply With Quote
     

Old September 15th, 2016, 01:35 PM   #1662 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker/Data: Bloomberg
Favorite Futures: Energies
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 
Posts: 253 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 800 given, 308 received

Hi @SMCJB

Previously you mentioned being open to questions about spreads on this thread. Seeing as discussion has been a lot slower on this thread than in previous months I thought I would ask some questions that you could answer in your own time. I would also love to hear from others that trade energy spreads.


I have heard people say that spreads should be thought of as their own distinct market, separate from outrights, with Joseph Choi also describing it as a way to trade the 'second order derivative'. If you agree with this sentiment, could you suggest ways to start thinking about this area? Both from a contextual and analytical viewpoint?

In Eurodollars I understand that most people will use calendar spreads to express an opinion about the pace of interest rate rises between two points, and use butterfly spreads as a way to take a view on fed 'lift-off' and 'landing' (again taken from Choi). What about in the energy markets? Are you just focused on the current contango/backwardation regime and it's steepness/flatness? Are there other things to consider?

How do fundamentals factor into your decision making process?

I have read many discussions on how best to execute fly's/condor's etc. Using a fly as an example, some state that it's best to use an autospreader to leg into 2 cals as you can capture a tighter spread than you'd pay trading an exchange traded fly. However, others argue that this leaves you open to legging risk and slippage and that it's better to just trade the exchange listed fly. What is your opinion on this and does it vary depending on your level of infrastructure and how price sensitive your strategy is?

Many thanks.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to CobblersAwls for this post:
     

Old September 19th, 2016, 02:50 PM   #1663 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker/Data: Bloomberg
Favorite Futures: Energies
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 
Posts: 253 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 800 given, 308 received

Gasoline vs Heating Oil Spread


Reading about the issues with the colonial pipeline as well as additional refinery issues in LA (PBF Energy) and Indiana (BP Plc) I was thinking this could be bearish for oil and bullish for distillates in the US.

However, with ongoing OPEC talks I think it would best to focus on distillates. That lead me to look at the RBOB vs HO spread. I think there is some room for RBOB to rally further vs HO but what I found most interesting was the strength of the spread based on seasonal cycles. Normally the RBOB - HO spread would be negative around this time of year but we see continued strength. Based on this, if the pipeline came back online soon enough then would we likely see a sharp sell-off?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by CobblersAwls; September 19th, 2016 at 03:42 PM. Reason: chart
Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to CobblersAwls for this post:
     

Old September 19th, 2016, 05:28 PM   #1664 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 616 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 288 given, 463 received

@CobblersAwls

Something that may perhaps be of use

ARA Gasoil Stocks Reach Record High | Genscpe

-William

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
     

Old September 20th, 2016, 07:32 PM   #1665 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,586 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
@CobblersAwls I saw your post and will reply soon. I moved this weekend so was offline for four days. I'm back online now but one of my main computers seems to have suffered a hard drive failure, and my wifi isn't working well so difficult for me to use the laptop.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old September 20th, 2016, 07:36 PM   #1666 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,586 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting story...

Mothballing the World's Fanciest Oil Rigs Is a Massive Gamble

Bloomberg:- Mothballing the World's Fanciest Oil Rigs Is a Massive Gamble

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old September 20th, 2016, 08:16 PM   #1667 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker/Data: Bloomberg
Favorite Futures: Energies
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 
Posts: 253 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 800 given, 308 received


SMCJB View Post
Interesting story...

Mothballing the World's Fanciest Oil Rigs Is a Massive Gamble

Bloomberg:- Mothballing the World's Fanciest Oil Rigs Is a Massive Gamble

I read that article earlier - great read. Although nowhere near enlightened enough to know how risky this really is, it seems that for now Transocean made the right call, cutting costs to still turn a profit for the year whilst rivals are spending anywhere from 200% to 333% more per day to keep these 'warm-stacked', but if oil prices remain depressed for an extended period of time like we have seen in the past then this could soon get very costly.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to CobblersAwls for this post:
     

Old September 28th, 2016, 05:10 PM   #1668 (permalink)
Market Wizard
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
xplorer's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,538 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 2,611 given, 1,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Wall Street rallies as OPEC reaches output deal

Wall Street moved higher on Wednesday after an OPEC agreement to limit crude output fueled a rally in oil and more than offset nervousness about a tight race for the U.S. presidency.

The energy index jumped 4 percent and was set to have its best day since January after OPEC sources said the group has reached a deal to limit crude output at its policy meeting in November. Oil prices rallied as much as 6 percent.

"The energy sector has been the biggest drag on earnings for the past year and a half or two years, and if you can get some stability there, all of a sudden earnings start to look a lot better," said Mark Kepner, managing director at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

Chevron climbed 2.66 percent and Exxon Mobil gained 3.56 percent. Shares of Caterpillar Inc, which sells heavy equipment to energy companies, jumped 3.79 percent.

Investors for months have shrugged off the Nov. 8 presidential election, but uncertainty about the election's outcome has taken center stage since Monday's first debate between candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

"There is this uncertainty that you don't know which way the election is going to go," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Financial Partners.

U.S. stocks reversed earlier losses and moved higher following news of the OPEC agreement.


Full article on Reuters

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to xplorer for this post:
     

Old September 29th, 2016, 05:37 AM   #1669 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 616 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 288 given, 463 received


Quoting 
The decision at this week’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algiers to cut production was necessitated by Saudi Arabia’s tattered finances. The kingdom has the highest budget deficit among the world’s 20 biggest economies, may delay its first international bond issue and now faces fresh legal uncertainty after the U.S. Congress voted Wednesday to allow Americans to sue the country for its involvement in 9/11.

In U-Turn, Saudis Choose Higher Prices Over Free Oil Markets - Bloomberg

They have assets that can be frozen here in the US

-William

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
     

Old October 1st, 2016, 09:38 AM   #1670 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 616 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 288 given, 463 received


Nice analysis, thank you

Side note - blows my mind why folks use ToS when it comes to doing anything with futures



-William

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: ADL hands-on

Dec 13

Normal webinar schedule resumes after the holidays

January

Ernie Chan: Risk Management

Elite only

Dedicated Trading Servers: Advantages/Disadvantages w/sam028

Elite only

An Afternoon with FIO member Massive I

Elite only

Leo Murphy: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:31 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts
Page generated 2016-12-09 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.161.128.52