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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1641 (permalink)
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CL vs USD

I put this together last night. Over the last 5 years WTI and the USD index have been pretty highly correlated. There is a lot of talk about the fundamentals of s/d in oil and it's distillates being a large factor in moving price, but could the biggest factor be the strength of the US dollar?

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Not /CL related but very important for what we do

These Tax Errors Will Cost Professional Traders Dearly - Robert A Green

Forbes Welcome

Webinar registration AUG 23 for above These Tax Errors Will Cost Professional Traders Dearly | GreenTraderTax

His website https://www.greentradertax.com/

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Nat Gas stocks have fallen during what is usually an injection period as it's used for power generation which remains at the top of the 5 year range. This is likely linked to high air-con consumption.

High natural gas-fired generation leads to rare summer net national weekly storage draw - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

----------------

We have several nat gas turbine sites in this neck of the woods. Some are an addition to existing coal fired power plants, others are stand alone

When they hit the go button on the turbines, big profit dollars

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  #1644 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
could the biggest factor be the strength of the US dollar?

$70/bbl drop in oil prices * 8million bbbl/day = $200B/year change in US imports.
If you say the import/export deficit is $40B/month this equates to a 40%ish drop in the deficit.
So is USD leading CL or CL leading the USD?

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So in 8 weeks we've added back 90 rigs, jumping from 316 to 406.

Business Insider - Oil rig count climbs for 8th straight week

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$70/bbl drop in oil prices * 8million bbbl/day = $200B/year change in US imports.
If you say the import/export deficit is $40B/month this equates to a 40%ish drop in the deficit.
So is USD leading CL or CL leading the USD?

I was thinking on this point for a while and I settled on USD leading CL. I think the high correlation between equities and oil has been really down to USD strength too. This is speculation but I'll look into doing some proper analysis after my holiday.

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About Morningstar® Research
Morningstar Research provides independent, fundamental research differentiated by a consistent focus on sustainable competitive advantages, or Economic Moats. Visit our website to learn more about Commodities Research at Morningstar.

Gulf Coast Refiners Enjoy Higher Margins From Processing Heavy Crude
Talk of lower margins is relative

By: Sandy Fielden, Director Oil and Products Research


All Refineries Are Not Created Equal
Although U.S. refining margins in general have declined in 2016 compared with historic highs seen during the shale oil boom in 2013 and 2014, regional refinery performance varies considerably with crude feedstock and plant configuration. Our analysis shows refining margins at Gulf Coast complex refineries that process heavy crude averaged $5.60/barrel higher than margins for refineries configured to process lighter crude over the past 3 years. Almost all of that margin difference is accounted for by lower prices for heavier crude. Because refineries with over 80% of Gulf Coast crude processing capacity have the coking units needed to fully process heavy crude, the spread between heavy and light crude prices (known as the sweet-sour spread) is a critical factor determining regional refinery performance.

To continue reading, please click on the link below.

http://www.morningstarcommodity.com/Research/Gulf_Coast_Refiners_Enjoy_Higher_Margins-final.pdf

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Oil slides as signals stay confused on output freeze

Oil closed in on its first weekly fall since July, dropping below $50 a barrel, following mixed signals from Opec countries about possible action at next month’s producer meeting.

Iran’s oil minister said this week he would attend the meeting of Opec ministers at an industry conference in Algeria, building hopes of co-operation given he had declined to attend the last co-ordinated attempt to agree a production freeze in April.

But Bijan Zanganeh again emphasised Iran’s production cannot be restricted as it raises output and tries to recover customers after struggling under western sanctions in previous years.

Khalid al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, who has voiced cautious support for the meeting, said on Thursday he did not believe “significant intervention” in oil markets was needed at this time, damping expectations of a deal now.

Full article on FT

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I'm sure this scale model cost more than a dollar or two - what's the price tag on the real McCoy?

@JKempEnergy Spotted this mammoth in the lobby of Shell's office in Perth

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Thu Sep 1, 2016 3:32am EDT

Saudi minister says OPEC moving to common position on oil output changes

Saudi Arabia's minister of foreign affairs said on Thursday that it would be reasonable for the kingdom to go along with other producers in changes to oil production.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said this week that OPEC's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia would support a decision to freeze oil output to prop up prices, although the country's oil minister has said it wants to continue to ramp up production.

Saudi minister says OPEC moving to common position on oil output changes | Reuters

But we also have this


September 1, 2016 — 5:01 AM EDT

Russia Says Oil Output Freeze Not Needed With Price Around $50

Russia sees no need for talks with other major oil exporters on freezing output with prices at around $50 a barrel, according to the Energy Ministry in Moscow.

The comments from Russia’s government come before OPEC nations and other oil producers meet for talks in Algiers later this month. Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, was a key negotiator in talks on an oil-output freeze with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers in April. That proposal failed after Iran declined to attend the meeting in Doha and Saudi Arabia refused to proceed with the deal without the participation of its Persian Gulf rival.

...Algiers talks, starting Sept. 26.

Russia Says Oil Output Freeze Not Needed With Price Near $50 - Bloomberg

Looks like more of the same bullshit, he said she said

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