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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1631 (permalink)
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Oil rig count rises for 3rd straight week

Baker Hughes Rig Count, July 15 - Business Insider

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Turkey's coup attempt and potential Oil impact

Given the current coup attempt developments in Turkey I thought I'd post this from Javier Blas of Bloomberg

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Turkey reopens key route for oil, grains transit after coup attempt


Following up on the earlier post

"Turkish maritime authorities have reopened Istanbul's Bosphorus Strait to transiting tankers after shutting it earlier on Saturday for several hours following what the government said was an attempted coup by a faction in the military.

The Bosphorus is one of world's most important chokepoints for the maritime transit of oil with over three percent of global supply - mainly from Russia and the Caspian Sea - passing through the 17-mile waterway that connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It also ships vast amounts of grains from Russia and Kazakhstan to world markets.

On Saturday, forces loyal to the Turkish government fought to crush the remnants of a military coup attempt, following violence and clashes in Ankara and Istanbul.

Shipping agent GAC said traffic had reopened after being shut for several hours for security reasons and ships were now being able to travel again through the Bosphorus which divides Istanbul into European and Asian sides.

A spokesman for Russia's pipeline monopoly Transneft said the main Black Sea port of Novorossiisk was operating normally and had enough tankers near the port to continue loading operations uninterrupted until July 25 regardless of what happens in the Bosphorus.

Reuters ship tracking data showed that around 10 oil tankers were anchored off the coast of Istanbul on the southern side of the strait, still waiting for instructions to sail through the narrow passage."


Full article on Reuters

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John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 19m19 minutes ago

US REFINERY THROUGHPUT surged +320,000 b/d to 16.9 million b/d last week and basically back to 2015 level

John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 18m18 minutes ago

LOTS OF TALK about "economic run cuts" but so far no sign of them in the weekly stats

-William

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Good analysis of the current oil markets

The Daily Shot - 28th July 2016:

The Daily Shot; July 28 - Global Macro Currents

It also reinforces that you can't just look at the weekly oil report in isolation to determine if it is likely to be bullish or bearish on oil prices as other energy stockpiles have an impact as well eg gasoline and natural gas stocks.

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist
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Hmm. Don't look now but crude's sub $40 again!

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About Morningstar® Research
Morningstar Research provides independent, fundamental research differentiated by a consistent focus on sustainable competitive advantages, or Economic Moats. Visit our website to learn more about Commodities Research at Morningstar.

Gulf Coast Refiners Penalized for Running the Lights
Falling Eagle Ford production jeopardizes processing investments.

By: Sandy Fielden, Director Oil and Products Research

Promise of Higher Margins Fading

Investments in refinery upgrades and specialized condensate splitters along the Texas Gulf Coast over the past three years have created nearly 1 million barrels/day of feedstock demand for crude and condensate from the Eagle Ford Basin in South Texas. These multimillion-dollar investments anticipated a higher margin from processing abundant Eagle Ford crude that, because it was not every Texas refiner’s cup of tea, was discounted versus more conventional supply. Much of this processing capacity is now on line, and another 175 thousand barrels/day, or mb/d, is on the way, but the crude price crash in 2014 slashed drilling in the Eagle Ford and reduced production by 40%. As a result, the price of Eagle Ford crude is now level with other Gulf Coast grades, and the promise of higher margins has faded. More available....
http://www.morningstarcommodity.com/Research/Gulf-Coast-Refiners-Penalized_Final.pdf

Houston Lateral Thinking Lacks Canadian Barrels
New TransCanada pipeline from Cushing to Houston faces uphill challenge.

By: Sandy Fielden, Director Oil and Products Research

New Pipeline Lacks Canadian Supplies

TransCanada's new Houston Lateral pipeline comes on line this month to deliver crude from Cushing, Oklahoma, to Houston. The pipeline is an extension of the Cushing Marketlink that represents the southern leg of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that was expected to deliver heavy crude from western Canada to the Gulf Coast. Since the U.S. denied the Keystone XL pipeline a presidential permit in November 2015, shippers on the southern leg are hard-pressed to source Canadian heavy crude. That constraint undermines the purpose of the Houston Lateral—leaving committed shippers likely delivering light sweet barrels into a Houston market already saturated with light shale crude. More available....
http://www.morningstarcommodity.com/Research/Houston%20Lateral%20Thinking%20Lacks%20Canadian%20Barrels_FINAL.pdf

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Tight Range in a Sweet Crude Glut
Little demand pull or supply push for Gulf Coast Light Crude.

By: Sandy Fielden, Director Oil and Products Research


Price Spreads Driven by Hangover of Infrastructure Commitments
Price spreads between light sweet crude grades at different delivery locations along the U.S. Gulf Coast have traded in a narrow $4/barrel range so far in 2016. At the same time, outright prices for benchmark light sweet crude West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, have bounced around in a more volatile 24-dollar range between $27 and $51/barrel, driven by jittery market sentiment about the domestic and international supply/demand balance. With a continuing market surplus and historically high inventory levels, crude price spreads at the Gulf Coast are being driven more by a hangover of pipeline shipper commitments than by demand pull or supply push. More available....
http://www.morningstarcommodity.com/Research/Tight%20Range%20In%20A%20Sweet%20Crude%20Glut_Final.pdf

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Nat Gas stocks have fallen during what is usually an injection period as it's used for power generation which remains at the top of the 5 year range. This is likely linked to high air-con consumption.

High natural gas-fired generation leads to rare summer net national weekly storage draw - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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11:11amET 8-10-16

John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 3m3 minutes ago

US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS have topped 8.4 million b/d in four of last eight weeks -- before that imports hadn't hit this level since Jun 2013


-William

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