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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #151 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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mfbreakout View Post
" Jimmy Boy weighs in on /CL "

Jimmy Boy needs to be put in his place one more time by John Stewart. Guys like these had CL as NO TOUCH at 44 as they were looking for 32 and then buy , buy at 54 becuase CL is going to $65. When CL hit $80, for them bottom was in, then $60 and then below $50 they became bearish (lol).


My favorite Jon Stewart of all time. The full interview is even better. Almost hard to see how Cramer could ever go back onto TV after some of the things Stewart made him admit. I can't find the official full interview anywhere but "The Weeks" article "Jon Stewart's 5 most hard-hitting interviews" has it all. (They rated the Cramer interveiw #1)

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  #152 (permalink)
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important crude market analysis - real time



47.70 might give some support here

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  #153 (permalink)
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puma View Post
important crude market analysis - real time


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  #154 (permalink)
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What a day. A day to remember just like Tuesday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #155 (permalink)
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This may or may not have an affect on the price of /CL (I'm still watching the half-way-back long and/ or a solid break and hold of 4765)


Quoting 
*ECB SAYS IT LIFTS WAIVER ON GREEK GOVERNMENT DEBT AS COLLATERAL
*ECB SAYS IT CAN'T ASSUME SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION OF GREECE REVIEW

ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece - Full Statement | Zero Hedge

-Bill

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  #156 (permalink)
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CL traders, where do you get your information on fundamental analysis for daytrading?

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  #157 (permalink)
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Random Musings of A Spread Trader...

Updating yesterday's chart as it leads into some random thoughts on some back month spreads.

Early in the day H5 was down over $2 while H5/H6/H7 was unchanged, hence the relationship was reverting back to the trendline but by the end of the day H5/H6/H7 had significantly underperformed yet again. (Feb 4th green ciricle).

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When we look at the 2 day change Feb 2nd to Feb 4th, we see why H5/H6/H7 has underperformed so much. Despite a greater than $1 drop in the front, and almost a $1 drop in the back, Mar-16 is almost unchanged!

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Random Musings of A Spread Trader...

If we chart this as the change in 1 month spreads rather than the outrights we get this

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Outside of the fornt spread, the two other spreads that jump out at me in this chart are the drop in Jan16/Feb16 and the jump in May16/Jun16.
Looking at them seperately over the last 100 days, we can see that while both trending downwards they had maintained a relatively tight relationship until 2 days ago.

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Looking at the 100 day history of the Jan6/Feb6/May6/Jun6 Condor this is even more apparent.
Note that the Condor has also been steadily declining over the last 100 days.
This is to be expected as the market has been in decline and the Jan/Feb has been declining slightly faster than the May/Jun
The 20c drop of the last 2 days though significantly exceeds the previous 2 day largest move of 8c (in the last 100 days).

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Yuri57 View Post
CL traders, where do you get your information on fundamental analysis for daytrading?

Every Wednesday morning at 10.30 am Crude Oil inventory report comes. Price reaction to the report is the ONLY thing which matters, Everything else is after the fact but i look at news from Bloomberg etc.

Wednesday high is resistance and low is support till proven wrong. For example, based of yesterday report , for me 52 is resistance till proven wrong. I will short with stop loss above 52. Typically once Wednesday highs gets taken out- CL run 100-200 ticks. How much CL runs once wednesday highs gets taken out depends on the FORCE with which this level gets taken out. Pice just going above by 20 ticks etc mostly turns out to be head fakes.

For me, if today 52 is taken with FORCE out longs and longs. Till then shorts and shorts. I have a short at 49.76. Will keep covering for 40-50 ticks while staying put with shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 5th, 2015 at 08:16 AM.
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CME Group
Oil-Gold Ratio: Dial Down Deflation Concerns
3 Feb 2015
By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland
Economic Insights from Relative Value Dynamics
Comparing the relative value of two high profile commodities can often reveal interesting insights.

Our analysis of the oil-gold relative price suggests that worries of deflation may be overdone and confirms our view that the oil price collapse may be more reflective of the production boom than consumption trends.
In recent months, the exchange rate between gold and oil has experienced a very strong move, bringing the oil-gold ratio (the number of barrels of oil needed to purchase one ounce of gold) to near record highs (Figure 1). Since June, the number of barrels of WTI required to purchase one ounce of gold has more than doubled from 12.5 to 28 as oil prices plunged in dollar terms, while gold prices held relatively steady (Figure 2). During the past 30 years, the oil-gold ratio has averaged about 16 barrels of oil for one ounce of gold. That said, the oil-gold ratio is not yet at historical extremes: it achieved 28.25 in February 2009 and rose to over 30 during the 1985-86 slump in oil prices. While this recent run-up in the oil-gold ratio has ....
Read more at cmegroup.com

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  #160 (permalink)
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@Yuri57

Justmy2cents

I usually do not pay attention to the fundamentals other than reaction to

Price action, volume spread analysis, 50% retrace, participation levels (etc etc)

However back to your question - there's a whole bunch of folks here that are far more in touch with the drum beat than me

Also if you (or anybody) want I have a spreadsheet that tracks the COT Report but I can't glean any useable info from it for /CL (other products it may be/ is useful)

-Bill

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