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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,908 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 17th, 2016, 09:29 PM   #1581 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Just to note last 2 OPEC meeting w/ no agreement resulted in a $7 (in 1 day) and $6 (in 2 days) drop respectively

Maybe not $6/7 (at least yet) but at 730pm Central, 2.5 hours into the Globex CL night session, CL -$2.27 -6.34%
Gotta say I'm a little surprised. I would have thought no agreement was priced in and that the potential shock would be to the upside.

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Old April 17th, 2016, 09:30 PM   #1582 (permalink)
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Maybe not $6/7 (at least yet) but at 730pm Central, 2.5 hours into the Globex CL night session, CL -$2.27 -6.34%
Gotta say I'm a little surprised. I would have thought no agreement was priced in and that the potential shock would be to the upside.

ya. we are also into a roll now so we have that to contend with..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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Old April 18th, 2016, 09:52 AM   #1583 (permalink)
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Some PO'd folks out there - not sure of the duration

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Old April 18th, 2016, 02:10 PM   #1584 (permalink)
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Quoting 
The Houston Ship Channel remained shut Monday morning due to ongoing severe thunderstorms in the Houston area that began Sunday night.

"The Houston Ship Channel was shut at 21:36 on Sunday. It's still shut," a Houston Pilots dispatcher said Monday. "Currently there are 17 inbound vessels and 16 sailings in the vessel queue."

He said the severe weather was producing winds in excess of 30 knots and three to four feet waves.

Houston Ship Channel remains shut due to severe storms; 33 vessels in queue - Shipping | Platts News Article & Story

This could mean lower imports for next week's inventory report (Apr 27) which would be bullish.

That report is the 16th of the year. There has been a build in the 16th week of the year the last 16 years in a row. So a decline in oil inventory would be a surprise.

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Old April 18th, 2016, 02:39 PM   #1585 (permalink)
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We're having some pretty serious flooding in Houston (500 year Flood Plain events in some locations) and all the bayous and rivers all eventually flow into the Ship Channel. I believe the Channel is currently approximately 3ft higher than usual.

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Old April 19th, 2016, 09:48 AM   #1587 (permalink)
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Interesting article worth a scan, or peruse

After Doha: 5 Reasons An Oil Freeze Was Only A Distraction | Investing.com

1) Saudi Arabia acted in its best interests
2) Iran is politically isolated
3) A freeze is not a cut
4) The global glut is – gradually – resolving anyway
5) Venezuela and Russia are still unresolved questions


Quoting 
In truth, the Doha meeting was a distraction from much more compelling issues like growing demand in China and India, the state of Iran’s foreign oil contracts, the role of Aramco in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic restructuring, and Saudi Arabia’s recent threat to dump U.S. assets if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudis to be held liable for the September 11, 2001 attacks.

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Old April 20th, 2016, 10:34 AM   #1588 (permalink)
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Apparently as of today (?) Russia is not on the production cut wagon

"The policy of certain countries regarding diversification of energy sources aimed at supporting local production is sometimes implemented inefficiently as it creates extra costs for consumers and changes the oil and gas market balance. From our viewpoint, the situation is not transparent enough as not the whole information is provided to consumers," he said.

Crude Slides After Russia Warns Of Production Increase: "Was Never Ready To Cut Output" | Zero Hedge

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Old April 20th, 2016, 02:56 PM   #1589 (permalink)
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Leading up to the Doha talks oil goes up
Doha talks fall through, no agreement is reached to cutback output, oil goes up
Kuwait oil workers stop strike , increasing oil supply, oil goes up
Oil Inventory numbers come out today, inventory is up, oil goes up


i think i'm pretty close to identifying a pattern here....

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Old April 20th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #1590 (permalink)
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To me this smacks of a short squeeze, will need to see some capitulation before we return to normalcy. The thing with commodities is that you can only fight the fundamentals for so long though. Away from BB but will check to see how put option premiums are trading later - could be some value there if cheap enough.

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