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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1561 (permalink)
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Happy Easter

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-William

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John Kemp sent this out via email earlier today - though that it may perhaps be of use

Grouped twitter list

https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/lists/best-in-energy

PDF of Twitter handles

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-who-follow-twitter.pdf

-William

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  #1563 (permalink)
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Another bit of JK's finest reporting. Saudis Monetary Authority monthly bulletin shows deep pain from low oil prices. However, one chart caught my eye which showed that the reserves have actually started to recover a little which is likely due to the recent bounce we have seen in oil prices.

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The SAMA monthly stats are found here:Monthly Statistics

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It should be interesting to see what this will do etc - if anything

Jameson Berkow ‏@crudereporter 2h2 hours ago

Saudi Arabia just confirmed it WILL take Aramco public. World's largest oil producer will become world's largest stock ($2.5-TRILLION)


-William

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Why Are Oil Prices Tanking 2 Weeks Before Potential Global Production Freeze Agreeme

Oil investors had high hopes for this months international meeting of leading OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, who will reportedly be discussing a plan to freeze global oil production. Rumors surrounding the meeting have been driving a huge rally in crude oil prices after they hit their lowest point in more than 10 years in early 2016. However, in a new interview, Saudi Arabian Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that theres still a major hurdle standing in the way of a production freeze agreement: Iran. When asked if any global production freeze would need to include Iran for Saudi Arabia to participate in the deal, he said Iran would definitely need to be included. Without a doubt. If all countries including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, OPEC countries and all main producers decide to freeze production, we will be among them, Salman explained. Related Link: Macquarie: Oil Will Fall To Low $30s Again While Irans oil minister will be attending the April 17 oil meeting in Doha, he has been adamant that Iran will not agree to a production freeze. Shares of the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE: USO) are down 6.5 percent this week, as investors seem to be realizing that a global production freeze deal could be far less likely than it seemed just weeks ago. Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned. Image Credit: Public Domain (TS:BZETF;BZCommodities;BZForex;BZTradingIdeas;USO)

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asyx View Post
Oil investors had high hopes for this months international meeting of leading OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, who will reportedly be discussing a plan to freeze global oil production. Rumors surrounding the meeting have been driving a huge rally in crude oil prices after they hit their lowest point in more than 10 years in early 2016. However, in a new interview, Saudi Arabian Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that theres still a major hurdle standing in the way of a production freeze agreement: Iran. When asked if any global production freeze would need to include Iran for Saudi Arabia to participate in the deal, he said Iran would definitely need to be included. Without a doubt. If all countries including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, OPEC countries and all main producers decide to freeze production, we will be among them, Salman explained. Related Link: Macquarie: Oil Will Fall To Low $30s Again While Irans oil minister will be attending the April 17 oil meeting in Doha, he has been adamant that Iran will not agree to a production freeze. Shares of the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE: USO) are down 6.5 percent this week, as investors seem to be realizing that a global production freeze deal could be far less likely than it seemed just weeks ago. Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned. Image Credit: Public Domain (TS:BZETF;BZCommodities;BZForex;BZTradingIdeas;USO)

Also not attending is the Unites States of America, the 3rd largest world producer. Hmmm... sounds a bit like price fixing.

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US / OPEC Crude Oil Production

A bit late to post as this was released last week, but here are the latest monthly stats on US and OPEC production. US prod. fell slightly whilst OPEC rose slightly, with Saudi also higher MoM.

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I thought Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on this happy crap FEB 16

However, don't forget this weekend - APR 17

-William

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CL Volatility

Mapped out the IV and HV for the Generic CL contract (CL1) to get a feel of where we stand at the moment in relation to the Historical Volatility over the last year. IV is currently around the 1YR average, however HV for periods measuring across 3/6/12 months are nearer their highs:

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Quoting 
Huge traffic jams of tankers have formed around the world with some 200 million barrels of oil either waiting to be loaded or delivered as ports struggle to cope with record volumes in perhaps the most visible sign of the global oil glut.

Cool map included showing ships exact location.
Crude congestion

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