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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1551 (permalink)
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IEA says /CL oil prices may have bottomed

Draghi is going to purchase corporate bonds, who/ which ones ?

-William

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CL

$40 a barrel seems like the target next week. I would like to see a close above $39 today going into the weekend. That should have the shorts sleeping with one eye open all weekend.

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  #1553 (permalink)
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US rig count falls 6 to the lowest level on record!

Baker Hughes oil rig counts, March 11 - Business Insider

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  #1554 (permalink)
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John Kemp -- NORTH DAKOTA's oil production is falling year-on-year for the first time since the shale oil boom began

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Once all the big banks git rid of the bad Oil & Gas debt (reason for the current run up in their stock prices) - oil will lose it's support again, and Saudi Arabia and their allies will not let oil to get too high when they are so close to funally crushing US shale.. or at least pushing a high percentage of US Oil & Gas companies into formal bankruptcy

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I tried to find more info on their website, perhaps a feeble attempt on my part

Global Corporate Research - S&P Ratings

Standard & Poor's ‏@standardpoors 29m29 minutes ago

#Metals & #Mining #capex fell by 22% in 2015 and is likely to drop by another 20% this year

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EDIT

Another link that may have some useful info


Quoting 
OVERVIEW

Cuts to commodity-related capex have reached a crescendo. We were already pessimistic about the broader capex outlook because of likely retrenchment in this area, but the severity of recent cuts has been remarkable. We estimate that global oil and gas capex fell by 24% in 2015 and will shrink a further 15% this year. Metals and mining capex appears to have fallen by 22% in 2015 and is likely to drop by another 20% this year.

Global capex spending continues to contract as a result. On current estimates it fell 10% in 2015, and is likely to shrink by a further 4% this year and 2% next. If these projections are realized, the real term value of global corporate capex in 2017 will have slipped back to where it was in 2006. Forecast momentum also remains poor. Of the 32 companies in our Global Capex 2000 universe that were expected to invest more than $10 billion in 2016, 25 have seen estimated spending fall in the past six months. Their total expected capex outlay has fallen by $58 billion from $549 billion to $491 billion.

One crumb of comfort is that capex growth excluding energy and materials remains likely to return to positive growth (+2%) this year. Capex expansion is expected in the IT, consumer discretionary (autos and media), and health care sectors. But, taken as a whole, this is thin gruel given renewed concerns about the fragility of the global economy and questions about the efficacy of central bank efforts to trigger investment.

Why is capex still so weak? In addition to the slump in commodity capex, global overcapacity remains a problem for industries such as steel and shipping. More broadly, poor revenue and EBITDA trends explain much of the paucity of capex growth.

https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1598...p_date=20260317-19:54:45


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Fanfare....



The Baker Hughes rig count report shows U.S. oil rig count increased by 1 in the latest week to 387.

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There has been talk about India consuming a fair amount of gasoline recently with data showing gasoline imports have been increasing steadily. We are also in the period in which refiners will being to focus on summer grade gasoline which has seen prices rise recently. I have been looking at wti, gasoline and heating oil prices and was wondering:

If demand for gasoline continues to outsrip demand for heating oil, what is the best way to play such fundamental shifts?

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Quoting 
Some U.S. shale oil producers, including Oasis Petroleum (OAS.N) and Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N), are activating drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in a reversal in strategy that threatens to bring more crude to a saturated market and dampen any sustained rebound in prices.

When oil prices started their long slide in mid-2014, many producers kept drilling wells, but halted expensive fracking work that brings them online, waiting for prices to bounce back.

But now, with crude futures hovering near multi-year lows and many doubting recent modest gains that brought oil prices near $40 a barrel CLc1 can hold, the backlog of DUCs is already shrinking in some areas.


Quoting 
In the Wolfcamp, Bone Spring and Eagle Ford, the combined backlog of excessive wells remains around 600, Beeker estimates.

About 660 wells could be the equivalent of between 100,000 and 300,000 barrels per day of potential new supply, according to Ed Longanecker, president of Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO).


Quoting 
With service costs down, now is a good time to bring a well online if a company has hedged its production and covered its costs, said Jonathan Garrett, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie.


Quoting 
Oasis has 70 percent of its oil production for 2016 hedged above $50 a barrel and roughly 20 percent of its 2017 production hedged at about $47 a barrel.

Similarly, Pioneer has locked in a minimum price for 85 percent of this year's production.

Dreaded 'stealth' supply becomes reality as U.S. drillers turn on 'ducks' | Reuters

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SMCJB View Post
The Baker Hughes rig count report shows U.S. oil rig count increased by 1 in the latest week to 387.

Well that didnt last long.... Rig Count Down 15 to a new all time low...

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