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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1511 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Saw this on Linkedin, didn't verify the source...
Presume bubble size is market cap.

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  #1512 (permalink)
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And This...

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  #1513 (permalink)
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ND wells actually producing is only 0.5% less than peak in Oct 2015. Plus new wells are coming online. 76 in Dec.

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https://twitter.com/DigStic/status/700036876980350976

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oil just gapped up.. i have no idea why..

either way i'm happy i am long (for the moment)

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  #1515 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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API Report

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This is the reason oil spiked. The report always comes out the day before the EIA report and is issued at 4:30 ET.

From ZeroHedge: Against expectations of a 3.5mm build (following a small draw last week), API reports total crude oil inventories shockingly drew down by 3.3 million barrels. Meanwhile Cushing inventories also drew down (by 175k versus expectations for a 700k build and 523k build last week), but we note that Gasoline inventoriers rose (by 750k) for the 14th week in a row.

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  #1516 (permalink)
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Aufidius View Post
oil just gapped up.. i have no idea why..

either way i'm happy i am long (for the moment)

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I think that gap is due to contract rollover from March to April.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
Luke.
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  #1517 (permalink)
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Yes

Depending on the platform you use contract roll was at lockout (1700 - 1800ET). ToS does it automatically, Sierra will (should) do it tonight (midnight) unless I make the change or turn off contract roll etc

There's a +2.32 difference between MAR (H) and APR (J) using yesterday settlement price

-William


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 18th, 2016 at 06:16 AM. Reason: clarify/ add
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  #1518 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Yes

Depending on the platform you use contract roll was at lockout (1700 - 1800ET). ToS does it automatically, Sierra will (should) do it tonight (midnight) unless I make the change or turn off contract roll etc

There's a +2.32 difference between MAR (H) and APR (J) using yesterday settlement price

-William

SC can have it roll on volume change too

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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  #1519 (permalink)
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michaelleemoore View Post
This is the reason oil spiked. The report always comes out the day before the EIA report and is issued at 4:30 ET.

From ZeroHedge: Against expectations of a 3.5mm build (following a small draw last week), API reports total crude oil inventories shockingly drew down by 3.3 million barrels. Meanwhile Cushing inventories also drew down (by 175k versus expectations for a 700k build and 523k build last week), but we note that Gasoline inventoriers rose (by 750k) for the 14th week in a row.

And the DOE says they built 2.1 slightly below expectations but completely different to the API.

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  #1520 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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API/EIA



SMCJB View Post
And the DOE says they built 2.1 slightly below expectations but completely different to the API.

Indeed! API usually spins the report to the positive if possible, while EIA seems to just crunch the numbers. From a trading perspective, I don't really care, as long as it moves CL. On the other hand, holding a position into a report you don't know is coming isn't a great idea, unless you have a long-term perspective.

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