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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,558 / 1,754
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 15th, 2016, 06:35 PM   #1511 (permalink)
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Saw this on Linkedin, didn't verify the source...
Presume bubble size is market cap.

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Old February 15th, 2016, 06:36 PM   #1512 (permalink)
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And This...

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Old February 17th, 2016, 03:44 PM   #1513 (permalink)
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ND wells actually producing is only 0.5% less than peak in Oct 2015. Plus new wells are coming online. 76 in Dec.

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https://twitter.com/DigStic/status/700036876980350976

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Old February 17th, 2016, 09:07 PM   #1514 (permalink)
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oil just gapped up.. i have no idea why..

either way i'm happy i am long (for the moment)

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Old February 17th, 2016, 09:10 PM   #1515 (permalink)
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API Report

Futures Edge on FIO
This is the reason oil spiked. The report always comes out the day before the EIA report and is issued at 4:30 ET.

From ZeroHedge: Against expectations of a 3.5mm build (following a small draw last week), API reports total crude oil inventories shockingly drew down by 3.3 million barrels. Meanwhile Cushing inventories also drew down (by 175k versus expectations for a 700k build and 523k build last week), but we note that Gasoline inventoriers rose (by 750k) for the 14th week in a row.

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Old February 18th, 2016, 04:54 AM   #1516 (permalink)
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Aufidius View Post
oil just gapped up.. i have no idea why..

either way i'm happy i am long (for the moment)

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I think that gap is due to contract rollover from March to April.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
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Old February 18th, 2016, 06:11 AM   #1517 (permalink)
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Yes

Depending on the platform you use contract roll was at lockout (1700 - 1800ET). ToS does it automatically, Sierra will (should) do it tonight (midnight) unless I make the change or turn off contract roll etc

There's a +2.32 difference between MAR (H) and APR (J) using yesterday settlement price

-William


Last edited by WilleeMac; February 18th, 2016 at 06:16 AM. Reason: clarify/ add
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Old February 18th, 2016, 10:11 AM   #1518 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Yes

Depending on the platform you use contract roll was at lockout (1700 - 1800ET). ToS does it automatically, Sierra will (should) do it tonight (midnight) unless I make the change or turn off contract roll etc

There's a +2.32 difference between MAR (H) and APR (J) using yesterday settlement price

-William

SC can have it roll on volume change too

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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Old February 18th, 2016, 12:14 PM   #1519 (permalink)
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michaelleemoore View Post
This is the reason oil spiked. The report always comes out the day before the EIA report and is issued at 4:30 ET.

From ZeroHedge: Against expectations of a 3.5mm build (following a small draw last week), API reports total crude oil inventories shockingly drew down by 3.3 million barrels. Meanwhile Cushing inventories also drew down (by 175k versus expectations for a 700k build and 523k build last week), but we note that Gasoline inventoriers rose (by 750k) for the 14th week in a row.

And the DOE says they built 2.1 slightly below expectations but completely different to the API.

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Old February 18th, 2016, 12:28 PM   #1520 (permalink)
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API/EIA



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And the DOE says they built 2.1 slightly below expectations but completely different to the API.

Indeed! API usually spins the report to the positive if possible, while EIA seems to just crunch the numbers. From a trading perspective, I don't really care, as long as it moves CL. On the other hand, holding a position into a report you don't know is coming isn't a great idea, unless you have a long-term perspective.

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