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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,726 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 10th, 2016, 11:46 AM   #1501 (permalink)
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US Oil imports last week dropped in a similar way compared to 2014.

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Could this mean larger imports next week and a drop in oil futures?

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Old February 11th, 2016, 04:18 PM   #1502 (permalink)
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@ron99

Today, talking about headline risk

/CL +1.20


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-William

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Old February 11th, 2016, 04:25 PM   #1503 (permalink)
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The UAE minister came out and said OPEC are ready to cooperate on production cuts.

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Old February 12th, 2016, 02:51 PM   #1505 (permalink)
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Interesting tid-bit from Carley Garner @decarleytrading

US oil rig count down 28 to 439, LY +/- 1300 and 2LY +/- 1700

Wowzers

-William

EDIT

Found this

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Last edited by WilleeMac; February 12th, 2016 at 03:05 PM.
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Old February 12th, 2016, 03:34 PM   #1506 (permalink)
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@WilleeMac my brother is in the business, things are getting really skimpy. Operating budgets in his area (New Mexico/Colorado/Texas) are running about 20% to 25% of a few years ago, and those are the "healthy" firms (the unhealthy didn't make it). Pink slips and panic! My guess is that it has probably run its course though, all the weak hands should be out. It has been really rough on the economies in "oil towns"

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Old February 12th, 2016, 04:17 PM   #1507 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Interesting tid-bit from Carley Garner @decarleytrading

US oil rig count down 28 to 439, LY +/- 1300 and 2LY +/- 1700

Wowzers

-William

Short term, rig counts don't matter because US oil production is still pumping strong. This is from the more accurate EIA monthly reports.

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Nov production was the same as last June and the same as last Jan.

Below is from the a little less reliable weekly reports.

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Current production is only 4.4% less than the peak.

The weekly report had Sep at an average of 9,121 per day. The more accurate monthly report said it was 9,449 per day.

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Old February 12th, 2016, 04:24 PM   #1508 (permalink)
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decarleytrading View Post
my brother is in the business, things are getting really skimpy. Operating budgets in his area (New Mexico/Colorado/Texas) are running about 20% to 25% of a few years ago, and those are the "healthy" firms (the unhealthy didn't make it). Pink slips and panic! My guess is that it has probably run its course though, all the weak hands should be out. It has been really rough on the economies in "oil towns"

I think there's a lot more pain to come in the oil sector in the next several months, I do think we will see companies go out of business. On a related note I gather there are several large war chests being put together all with the intention of buying the distressed assets when they become available.

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Old February 12th, 2016, 04:29 PM   #1509 (permalink)
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More oil coming.


Quoting 
Helms said (ND) producers are finishing previously drilled wells to meet a one-year state completion deadline. That surge had been expected, and Helms said another bump is likely in late 2015 and early 2016, as other wells reach their deadlines.

Uncertain outlook as North Dakota tops 10,000 shale oil wells - StarTribune.com

I did read in another article that ND wasn't enforcing the requirement to hookup wells within one year of drilling.

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Old February 12th, 2016, 05:22 PM   #1510 (permalink)
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It bothers me when folks put crap like this in print. All one has to do is go to a chart that uses settlement price and see this is wrong


Quoting 
Oil futures soared on Friday. West Texas Intermediate crude registered its best one-day percentage gain in about seven years.

8-26 settle 38.60, 8-27 42.56 = 3.96 higher. Technically on a percentage basis today is higher.

You gotta love statistics

4 reasons oil scored its best one-day gain in 7 years - MarketWatch

-William

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