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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,360 / 1,754
Last Reply:7 Hours Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 4th, 2015, 11:07 AM   #141 (permalink)
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" What is really strange that the Saudis and other OPEC's members have kept absolute silence over past couple of weeks about the matter."


That's why i am willing to short. Bigger the bounce= Bigger the opportunity.

The day offical announcement comes out of OPEC etc on production cut etc- CL will not look back. Till then bounces are shortable.



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Last edited by mfbreakout; February 4th, 2015 at 12:19 PM.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 11:51 AM   #142 (permalink)
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That's why i am willing to short. Bigger the bounce= Bigger the opportunity.

Agree with that.

So, API's gestimates were very close this time

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Old February 4th, 2015, 12:15 PM   #143 (permalink)
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Covered shorts around 50.30 . gave 30 minutes to see if 50 area is broken but no go. Sitting on hands. There is no new selling or buying going on. Tough to figure out stop loss either for long or shorts. Per my way of trading in both the cases stop loss will be too wide to do anything.

If CL rips above 51.20 area with FORCE- may try long.



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Old February 4th, 2015, 01:46 PM   #144 (permalink)
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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:08 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Covered shorts around 50.30 . gave 30 minutes to see if 50 area is broken but no go. Sitting on hands. There is no new selling or buying going on. Tough to figure out stop loss either for long or shorts. Per my way of trading in both the cases stop loss will be too wide to do anything.

If CL rips above 51.20 area with FORCE- may try long.

51.20 area did not get taken out, so no longs for me. Took a short at 50.21, Covered some 49.54. Till buyer shows up, down an down. I have to admit even i am surprised of complete fall out in 2 days. I was expectong we will get here in couple of days.

My short of 93.92 from yesterday looks like a distant memory. Value areas, Vwap, fibs, high volume node, low volume nodes etc you name it- everything out of the door. Of course at some point some level will hold this down move before complete fall out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:13 PM   #146 (permalink)
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If you don't mind, what software do you use for the regression charting?

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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:19 PM   #147 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
If you don't mind, what software do use for the regression charting?

Those charts are just Excel 2013 but I use the Morningstar Commodity Add-In for Microsoft® Excel® as my data source.
Their Commodity Query is also very good and can be used to run some powerful analysis once you learn the scripting.

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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:24 PM   #148 (permalink)
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Jimmy Boy weighs in on /CL


Quoting 
1. U.S. Dollar

Oil is denominated in dollars. When the dollar is strong compared to other currencies, oil prices fall.

No doubt, the strongest U.S. dollar rally of the 21st century put enormous pressure on oil prices.

After a 21% gain, the dollar was due for a correction. There is a strong case for a euro rally. Due to their inverse relationship, a euro rally inevitably leads to a dollar correction, which in turn would lift oil prices.

The multi-month euro rally may have started, which should buoy oil prices

2. Seasonality

Looking back at 31 years of historic price patterns, oil has some seasonal price patterns. Seasonality doesn't always pan out, but it certainly help to put the odds in your favor.

3. Technical Analysis (long-term)

The crude oil futures monthly bar chart shows major support around $46.

Short-term technical analysis looks bullish. Last week saw a new price low against weakening down side momentum

Short-term technical analysis shows an overbought condition. Key resistance is around 55.

Summary

After a 60% waterfall decline since June 2014, oil is due for a bounce. This bounce appears to have started, and, based on seasonality, it should continue.

Sustained trade above 55 will unlock further up side potential.

3 Reasons Crude Oil Will Continue Its Massive Winter Rally - TheStreet

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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:41 PM   #149 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Those charts are just Excel 2013 but I use the Morningstar Commodity Add-In for Microsoft® Excel® as my data source.
Their Commodity Query is also very good and can be used to run some powerful analysis once you learn the scripting.

Thank you.
There is no pricing info on their website. The Add-In is probably for free but how much do they charge for subscriptions?

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Old February 4th, 2015, 02:53 PM   #150 (permalink)
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" Jimmy Boy weighs in on /CL "

Jimmy Boy needs to be put in his place one more time by John Stewart. Guys like these had CL as NO TOUCH at 44 as they were looking for 32 and then buy , buy at 54 becuase CL is going to $65. When CL hit $80on the way down last year, for them bottom was in, then $60 and then below $50 they became bearish (lol). At $80 it was just a pulback within a bullish trend.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; February 4th, 2015 at 03:13 PM.
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