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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,518 / 1,754
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 4th, 2016, 10:19 AM   #1481 (permalink)
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boze man View Post
oil volatility is the highest its been since 2008-9

Have to remember volatility is measured on a percentage basis. There have been times when crude has moved more on a $ perspective but that was a lower % perspective. As such margins are lower than they have been previously but as a % basis they are higher, which is the same as saying you get (significantly) less leverage trading crude today than you did a year ago

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Old February 4th, 2016, 11:03 AM   #1482 (permalink)
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Oil bears closing of $600 million triple-short fund bet seen adding to tumult | Reuters


Quoting 
Some 1.8 million shares worth more than $602 million were redeemed on Tuesday, the largest outflow from the ETN in the past year, according to data from FactSet Research


Quoting 
To unwind alone may have amounted to upwards of 40,000 futures contracts on Tuesday, according to estimates by analysts.

40k contract trade size... i'd love to press that button


and before someone says something.. yes i know it wasn't a single trade... but you get the idea.

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Old February 4th, 2016, 11:20 AM   #1483 (permalink)
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While the person writing the article has a different understanding to me as to how redemption's work, and how a market maker would arb the ETN vs Futures, it's still a very interesting article.

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Old February 4th, 2016, 11:26 AM   #1484 (permalink)
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Where do you get this kind of information on a given ETN? Looking at price and volume?

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Old February 4th, 2016, 04:15 PM   #1485 (permalink)
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ElChacal View Post
Where do you get this kind of information on a given ETN? Looking at price and volume?

maybe it was inferred from ...


Quoting 
The net asset value of the fund - one of a handful of exchange funds that allows investors to trade oil without the complexity of a futures exchange - fell from close to $1 billion to $417 million on Tuesday and to $322 million on Wednesday, according VelocityShares' website.


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Old February 5th, 2016, 11:13 AM   #1486 (permalink)
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I understand this is an oil thread, however I thought I would put forth some truth in advertising on the employment numbers

Cheers

-William

https://market-ticker.org/post=231086

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Old February 5th, 2016, 11:36 AM   #1487 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
I understand this is an oil thread, however I thought I would put forth some truth in advertising on the employment numbers

Cheers

-William

https://market-ticker.org/post=231086

Sorry but his analysis is ignoring what happens seasonally. Every Jan there is a huge drop in employed people on the NSA number. It's 2.8 to 3.0 million every Jan the last 4 years.

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Old February 5th, 2016, 12:34 PM   #1488 (permalink)
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I'm not clear on your assertion

Karl Denninger wrote


Quoting 
Now to be fair, last year, same month, it was also down four ticks. It's called "seasonal firing" in January, and it happens every year. This year the household numbers say that while the population went up about 461,000 people the number of people actually employed went down by 666,000.

Yes, you read that right -- negative 666,000.

Oh, and the unadjusted unemployment rate was up from 4.8% last month to 5.3% -- a huge jump.

Who got screwed the worst? Women and teens; teens saw their unemployment rate fly higher by 2.3% (!) from 14.2 -> 16.5%.

But, this is expected in January as seasonal employees are fired.

Perhaps I'm missing something

-William

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Old February 5th, 2016, 12:46 PM   #1489 (permalink)
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Quoting 
What? There were 2.99 million jobs reported lost in the establishment survey with over 2 million of those in services. In other words the "gain" was due to "seasonal adjustment" and it was utterly monstrous; if reported on the establishment survey without same it would have been a ruinously bad print.

.


ron99 View Post
Sorry but his analysis is ignoring what happens seasonally. Every Jan there is a huge drop in employed people on the NSA number. It's 2.8 to 3.0 million every Jan the last 4 years.


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Old February 6th, 2016, 07:10 PM   #1490 (permalink)
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Looking at COT data
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last time Money Manager Shorts this high prices had a steep decline

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*note time scale for both charts doesn't line up exactly but you get the idea.

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