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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1451 (permalink)
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Saudi Arabia oil giant could be going public

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  #1452 (permalink)
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Random Musings....

Back end getting smashed, potentially even more than the front on a relative basis.

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  #1453 (permalink)
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Slightly different time frame, rather than last 2 years, starting 20-Jun-14 which was the $107.26 peak close before the sell off. R^2 improves from 94.4 to 96.3 but current month 30 prices still uncharacteristically low.

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  #1454 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Random Musings....

Back end getting smashed, potentially even more than the front on a relative basis.

This implies "lower for longer"?

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  #1455 (permalink)
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This implies "lower for longer"?

That's my interpretation.

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  #1456 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Prospect of the Islamic Republic (Iran) pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin

Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sanctions-middle-east-stock-102835505.html

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  #1457 (permalink)
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Quick rundown on /CL, current conditions etc

Oil Under $28: Counting the Cost - Bloomberg Business

-William

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  #1458 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Oil derivatives traders have bid U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to a premium versus global market Brent for the first time since the shale boom began in 2010, a rally that emerged after the abrupt end of an export ban that producers said had forced them to sell domestic oil at below-market rates.

As a result of the inversion, which is now evident in every contract out to August 2017, importing light, sweet crude to the United States has become economical for the first time in years. Vessels carrying up to 500,000 barrels of day of Norwegian and Nigerian crude are expected to arrive at U.S. ports in the coming weeks.

While the economics may work today, some traders in the cash market for domestic U.S. crude worry that it is sowing the seeds of a further slump in prices that could emerge this spring.

U.S. oil import binge: distorted derivatives or shale bust? | Reuters


Quoting 
The chief concern of physical traders is Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest U.S. storage hub. Inventories here have risen to record highs at just 9 million barrels shy of their theoretical limit, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show, and filling to the brim could trigger another leg down in the 18-month price rout.

"After you build stocks for 10 weeks in a row, we all know what path we're on. March looks to be a good litmus test," said John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston.

The builds in Cushing will likely be exacerbated by BP Plc conducting two weeks of planned work on its 250,000 barrel-per-day crude unit in Whiting, Indiana, starting in early March.


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  #1459 (permalink)
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Thanks Ron.
The move in Brent-WTI is very surprising to me.

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  #1460 (permalink)
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Listening to @FuturesTrader71 this morning, Morad mentioned Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associattes saying "China is no longer the engine behind growth ... the world no longer has a locomotive." (indirect quote)

FT seems to have high regard for Mr Dalio

Ray Dalio: There is no engine to drive global growth - Business Insider

There is also this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/if-assets-remain-correlated-theyll-be-depression-ray-dalio-says-qe4-just-around-corn

-William


Last edited by WilleeMac; January 21st, 2016 at 11:54 AM. Reason: add, clarify
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