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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1441 (permalink)
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  #1442 (permalink)
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Looks like Saudi Arabia is also losing in this game of chicken.

Saudi posts record $98 bn deficit in 2015

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klemenlogar View Post
Saudies have a huge cash balance to cover the gaps wich is not true for the american companies that are in debt. Saudies can withstand this war much longer that US.


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Saudi Arabia is scaling back energy and water subsidies in an effort to rein in a $98 billion budget deficit resulting from low oil prices. The kingdom also said it would seek to privatize a range of business activities and implement a plan to introduce a sales tax across six Arab Gulf states.

The first reforms will be effective from Tuesday, including an increase in gasoline prices, a rise in electricity tariffs for the wealthiest consumers, a modest increase in water costs for all, and changes to all energy prices for industrial users.

Saudis unveil radical austerity program

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Quoting 
Oil output in Russia, one of the world's largest producers, hit a post-Soviet high last month and in 2015 as small- and medium-sized energy companies cranked up the pumps despite falling crude prices, Energy Ministry data showed on Saturday.

The rise shows producers are taking advantage of lower costs due to rouble devaluation and signals Moscow's resolve not to give in to producer group OPEC's request to curb oil output to support prices.

But the rise will contribute to a global oil supply glut and exert continued downward pressure on oil prices which hit an 11-year low near $36 per barrel last month, having fallen almost 70 percent in the past 18 months.

For the whole of 2015, Russian oil and gas condensate output rose to more than 534 million tonnes, or 10.73 million barrels per day (bpd) from 10.58 million bpd in 2014.

In December, Russian oil output rose to 10.83 million bpd from 10.78 million bpd in November. In tonnes, oil output was 45.782 million last month versus 44.115 million in November.

The increase in production defied many expectations of a fall in Russian oil output which has been on a steady rise since 1998 apart from a small decline in 2008.

The Energy Ministry had expected output to fall to 525 million tonnes in 2015 due to the exhaustion of mature oilfields in Western Siberia, which account for over a half of the country's total oil production.

Russian oil output hits post-Soviet record high in December, 2015 | Reuters

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U.S. Oil Exports Could Narrow WTI-Brent Spread - CME Group

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  #1447 (permalink)
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Somebody please chime in/ comment.

EIA (Energy Information Administration) says Cushing inventories rose 917K BBL

DOE (Department of Energy) says crude oil inventories fell 5.09 MLN BBL

Which number is important as far as price action in /CL is concerned ?

Also on a gas related note. I was told that the current price at the pump is not so much related to /CL as it is with the limited amount of storage for gas. Meaning we need storage drop the price, we now have storage raise the price,,,, something to that effect. (sp)

Thank you

-William

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  #1448 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post

Which number is important as far as price action in /CL is concerned ?


To answer your question...

The headline API/DOE inventory number (actual vs expected) would influence price action more

Cushing inventory number would drive the front spread (/CL1-/CL2) and overall term structure

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  #1449 (permalink)
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BIG PICTURE

Wow what a Ride we have had with Crude over the years...
Is it Possible that we will get near the Low of 1998 ?
It is Not far fetched to think that it could get close before it is all over.
I remember Gas was at .71 cents during that time
We just Broke Low of 2008 at 33.20

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  #1450 (permalink)
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My cycle analysis indicates that the CL market should churn sideways here for the next 2 weeks to 1/21, then move higher for 2 weeks after that to 2/5. I'm short strangles in March CL (31 P / 40.5 C) for the time being, looking for significant theta decay and volatility crush.

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