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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,568 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old December 18th, 2015, 09:29 AM   #1431 (permalink)
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Crude oil's secret driver?

Crude oil's secret driver?
What’s behind the tight relationship between Treasury spreads and crude oil? Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management and Rich Ross of Evercore ISI discuss with Brian Sullivan

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Old December 18th, 2015, 02:13 PM   #1432 (permalink)
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They lifted the US Crude Oil Export Ban? WOW!

Congress Passes U.S. Spending Bill to End Crude Oil Export Ban - Bloomberg Politics

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Old December 18th, 2015, 02:23 PM   #1433 (permalink)
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What is your opinion on how this will affect CL?

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Old December 18th, 2015, 02:31 PM   #1434 (permalink)
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What is your opinion on how this will affect CL?

My opinion is that this might cause the final blowout low in crude. May not take it too long to recover back up though...

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Old December 18th, 2015, 02:38 PM   #1435 (permalink)
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What is your opinion on how this will affect CL?

Just thinking out loud, nothing solid to base this upon ... The US is obviously a very large importer of crude, so for every barrel of crude we do export, we will have to import an additional barrel somewhere else. I suspect that there are certain grades of crude in certain geographical locations that are surplus. These will now get exported and the places we need the crude will import more. The price of the crudes exported will obviously increase. I guess this means that the system will become more efficient than it currently is, as refineries get to optimize their crude runs further, rather than just have to use what is available locally.

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Old December 21st, 2015, 07:32 AM   #1436 (permalink)
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My working sell trade from today. Did anyone take this one with me.
Comments and questions welcomesd....

I am not expecting much from that trade since i dont expect crude will leave this value area before todays Inventories realese. I will be managing this trade tight over the news realease since durring the news liquidity is taken off the market and price can fly fast and volatile..

....Storage news came out as a expected miss on the news and we got a good push in to our trade direction. Trade closed with +82 ticks.

Good setup, but would like to warn that this is very risky for day trade keep positions on inventories release, if you are on the wrong side it can jump your stop and you loose more than you can think.

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Old December 21st, 2015, 12:13 PM   #1437 (permalink)
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DJ Genscape Reports Still-Rising Crude in Cushing -- Market Talk

10:37 ET - Can the oil industry build storage tanks fast enough to meet demand? That's the question as the latest
twice-weekly report from Genscape shows crude inventories at the commercial storage hub in Cushing, Okla., hit 63.7M
barrel Friday, up 1.6M from a week earlier, according to a market participant who saw the report. Cushing has been
building new tanks all year and had working capacity of 73M barrel as of September, versus 71M in March and 48M in
2011. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

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Old December 22nd, 2015, 01:03 PM   #1438 (permalink)
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In my experience, when the large trading houses call for extreme lows after a large run down it is a great signal to start looking for buys.
Goldman was reiterating a call for sub $30 cl this week.

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Old December 23rd, 2015, 11:53 AM   #1439 (permalink)
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CL vs BRENT

CL feb passed the BRENT feb price.

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Old December 23rd, 2015, 11:59 AM   #1440 (permalink)
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US oil inventory down mainly because imports were down.

I see that the Houston shipping channel was closed partially on 12/14/15. That may have affected imports unloading but it doesn't look like the shutdown was very long.

Any other ideas on why imports were down? I do see in past years that imports drop slightly in Dec. Probably to keep inventories low for year end tax purposes.

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