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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,055 / 1,755
Last Reply:12 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old February 3rd, 2015, 06:16 PM   #131 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Agree some very strange curve gyrations today!

CLH5/CLH6 spread strengthened just 42c today or 3.5/c month while
CLH6/CLH7 spread strengthened $1.43c today or nearly 12c month
To exaggerate the point even more
The 5 month spread CLJ5/CLU5 spread narrowed just 9c today or less than 2/c month while
the 5 month spread CLN6/CLZ6 spread narrowed 69c just under 14/c month while

What am I babbling about? Take a look at this...
Today is the red cross in the bottom right hand corner.
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Thanks. What does this mean? How can one use this to put on a trade?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 3rd, 2015, 06:38 PM   #132 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Agree some very strange curve gyrations today!

CLH5/CLH6 spread strengthened just 42c today or 3.5/c month while
CLH6/CLH7 spread strengthened $1.43c today or nearly 12c month
To exaggerate the point even more
The 5 month spread CLJ5/CLU5 spread narrowed just 9c today or less than 2/c month while
the 5 month spread CLN6/CLZ6 spread narrowed 69c just under 14/c month while

What am I babbling about? Take a look at this...
Today is the red cross in the bottom right hand corner.

Apart from the obvious side of your chart (and I'm still not convinced by recent price action), I think markets are slowly implying upcoming drop in production and trying to re-position accordingly at the mid and end of curve. Current oil prices can't last forever.

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Old February 4th, 2015, 06:35 AM   #133 (permalink)
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Anyone know what happened at 21:28 GMT in CL today? I saw an iceberg order soak up around 60 contracts or so I think at 51.10, not that significant, and then all of a sudden it surges all the way up to 51.77 (literally in around 2 or 3 seconds) and then comes back down to 51.37 all within a minute. Fat finger?

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Old February 4th, 2015, 08:05 AM   #134 (permalink)
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Added to shorts 52.24 area . Out flat 51.62.

Shorts with stop loss above 53.40 area and longs around 49 area provided exhausation bar to the downside shows up. In between , no trades for me. Also, if 53.40 area gets taken out, will look for longs.


Elevator up and elevator down type of moves. Expanded Volatility, massive bets from both sides ( bulls vs bears) requires stop loss to be adjusted to avoid whip saws.

Out flat 51.25.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 08:10 AM   #135 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
Anyone know what happened at 21:28 GMT in CL today? I saw an iceberg order soak up around 60 contracts or so I think at 51.10, not that significant, and then all of a sudden it surges all the way up to 51.77 (literally in around 2 or 3 seconds) and then comes back down to 51.37 all within a minute. Fat finger?

I could not find any news realted item to cause this. Crude up around 15% in 2 days from bottom to top- lot of massive bets in play from both sides is causing this is all i can think off.

Before a deep bearish trend is over- these kinds of moves are typical till one side gives up.



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Old February 4th, 2015, 08:37 AM   #136 (permalink)
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TickedOff View Post
Anyone know what happened at 21:28 GMT in CL today? I saw an iceberg order soak up around 60 contracts or so I think at 51.10, not that significant, and then all of a sudden it surges all the way up to 51.77 (literally in around 2 or 3 seconds) and then comes back down to 51.37 all within a minute. Fat finger?

APIs readings were released on 4:30 PM Eastern time (9:30 PM London time). Those data releases usually ignite some slight activities in late hour CL price movements.

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Old February 4th, 2015, 09:37 AM   #137 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Thanks. What does this mean?

Nothing other than the fact that the curve moved in a very strange and non-normal way yesterday.
I suspected that somebody was doing something in CLM6 (hedging Cal16 swaps, rolling hedges etc) and that when they were finished the curve would gradually revert but even with the market down this morning that's not happening.


mfbreakout View Post
How can one use this to put on a trade?

You could look at some back month butterfly spreads that would profit if the curve shifted back to its more traditional position. Unfortunately its difficult to know when we are just deviating from the mean and when we are entering a new paradigm. The curve was already a little strange before yesterday so anybody who already had that trade on took some pain yesterday.
FYI - I definitely wouldn't recommended anything involving H5 (like the H5/H6/H7 fly I illustrated). When looking at relative value and mean reversion trades I would avoid contract months that are very fundamentally driven. I used the H5/H6/H7 purely as it made a great and easy to understand visualization of what happened.


Alphachase View Post
I think markets are slowly implying upcoming drop in production and trying to re-position accordingly at the mid and end of curve. Current oil prices can't last forever.

That actually could explain some of the curve shift we've seen in the last few days.

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Old February 4th, 2015, 09:45 AM   #138 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Nothing other than the fact that the curve moved in a very strange and non-normal way yesterday.
I suspected that somebody was doing something in CLM6 (hedging Cal16 swaps, rolling hedges etc) and that when they were finished the curve would gradually revert but even with the market down this morning that's not happening.

I think it's too early for the curve to revert, at least until floor trading opens later today.



According to what I can see in my screens (overnight movements), I suggest the EIA report which is due in 2 hrs might be somewhat disappointing for those initiated recent massive short squeeze in CL. Just sayin' Not an investment advise.
What is really strange that the Saudis and other OPEC's members have kept absolute silence over past couple of weeks about the matter.


Last edited by Alphachase; February 4th, 2015 at 09:50 AM.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 10:36 AM   #139 (permalink)
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Another interesting chart.
Crude (blue) vs 1-month spread (green) vs 6-month spread (red) vs 12-month spread (magenta). All front.
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Old February 4th, 2015, 10:59 AM   #140 (permalink)
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Short cover here, long cover there

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