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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,131 / 1,753
Last Reply:51 Minutes Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old November 12th, 2015, 01:01 PM   #1371 (permalink)
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North Dakota

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-William

EDIT

From John Kemp

North Dakota


Last edited by WilleeMac; November 12th, 2015 at 05:07 PM.
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Old November 12th, 2015, 07:39 PM   #1372 (permalink)
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Tons of oil bulls for the oil bear to smash yet. I want to see the guy with a chart showing how the oil bear is going to last the next decade then I wouldn't mind getting long.

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Old November 12th, 2015, 11:01 PM   #1373 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 4h4 hours ago
WTI AND BRENT TIMESPREADS weaken amid fears about a build up of crude and product stocks:

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-William

What am I missing? This chart shows spreads weaking a year ago.
Spreads are significantly higher than several months ago when stocks where at similar levels.


ron99 View Post
US oil production up for 4th week in a row. Big jump in Cushing inventory. But hardly any movement in CL futures.

I wonder how many forgot when report was coming out.

Don't forget production is a guess-timate. They dont know actual product until months later and the revisions are often significant.

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Old November 12th, 2015, 11:04 PM   #1374 (permalink)
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justrandom View Post
Tons of oil bulls for the oil bear to smash yet. I want to see the guy with a chart showing how the oil bear is going to last the next decade then I wouldn't mind getting long.

Production companies are naturally long.
It is argued that the majors are naturally short the crack spread.
The end user (aka us) is naturally short the finished product.
The first two can manage their risk (at least in theory) the third can not.

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Old November 13th, 2015, 01:46 AM   #1375 (permalink)
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Then I guess we scrap Mr Kemp ??

I'm only the messenger

I'll NOT do this again

-William

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Old November 13th, 2015, 01:52 AM   #1376 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
@SMCJB

Then I guess we scrap Mr Kemp ??

I'm only the messenger

I'll NOT do this again

-William

Not at all. Appreciate the analysis. I like a lot of his stuff. Just don't like this one. Not like anybody ordained me as a God. Anyway mine is just an opinion of a small fish in a big pond.

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Old November 14th, 2015, 03:56 PM   #1377 (permalink)
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Subscribed.

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Old November 16th, 2015, 12:13 PM   #1378 (permalink)
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At this time of the year I like buying the RB - HO (Gasoline minus Heating Oil) spread.

Seasonals, according to MRCI, are consistently positive until early January.

Currently, COT data for RB is slightly more bullish than for HO.

El Nino should take care of a warmer winter in the north of the US. This results in less consumption of heating oil and more consumption of gasoline.

The spread RBZ-HOZ has come back intraday to -15. I intend to buy further spreads in the next couple of days. (I hold half of my usual lot size since middle of September.)

I would be interested in the opinion of the energy traders here.

Thanks a lot !

Best regards, Myrrdin

PS: I am aware that this question is not directly on Crude Oil. Thus, I had placed it in an own thread, but did not receive an answer.

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Old November 16th, 2015, 01:43 PM   #1379 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
At this time of the year I like buying the RB - HO (Gasoline minus Heating Oil) spread.

I am not sure if shorting ULSD this close to winter is a good idea. Maybe it is...


I do think that current news might change the price of crude though...

What "news" signal would anyone consider sufficient to go long CL/QM ?

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Old November 16th, 2015, 02:01 PM   #1380 (permalink)
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Little surprised the French attacks/news didn't have an effect on CL.

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