The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started: by tturner86 Views / Replies:131,188 / 1,812
Last Reply: Attachments:459

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 459  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1351 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received



Yes, ~56M bbl more in the market now from the SPR stock. I wonder at what price they bought, or used to buy.

I would go short on the retail bus if I had the cash now.

Bad timing and there is no real need I guess (or "act of god") to justify it.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1352 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,635 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,434 given, 2,459 received

Doesn't start until 2018 and it's only 5mil/year initially. That's only 13.7kb/day.

Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #1353 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,374 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 650 given, 4,029 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Cushing inventory tends to have dips about now and then rise through end of year.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #1354 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,374 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 650 given, 4,029 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

But refineries did increase input early this year.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #1355 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,374 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 650 given, 4,029 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO
OIL VOLATILITY has surged in 2015. WTI has been more volatile than at any time since 2008/9 and before that 1991.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/659695813220769793

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #1356 (permalink)
Elite Member
australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: -
 
Posts: 300 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 123 given, 135 received

CL is basically tracking ES this morning session.

went up $1 and now it have dropped $1

There seems to be relatively large orders bought at 46.70 but CL still went down with ES as it falls from 2084 to 2076

Reply With Quote
 
  #1357 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 650 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 294 given, 529 received

Mr Kemp chimes in on volatility OCT 30 2015


Quoting 
The chief of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned a conference last week the oil market had already experienced 35 "flash events" since the start of the year.

CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad defined flash events as occasions on which prices moved by at least 200 basis points within an hour but returned to within 75 basis points of the starting position within the same hour ("Evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market" Oct. 21).

The definition, which Massad acknowledged was "somewhat arbitrary", was derived from the significant round-trip move in the price of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds in October 2014.

The large move and retracement in Treasury prices between 0933 ET and 0945 ET on Oct. 15, 2014, had only been exceeded on three times since 1998 ("Joint Staff Report on the U.S. Treasury Market," July 2015).

COLUMN-Volatility and flash events in the oil market: Kemp | Reuters

Below is a PDF with some vol charts etc

-William

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-oil-market-volatility-measures.pdf

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #1358 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 650 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 294 given, 529 received

John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 2h2 hours ago

HEDGE FUND oil bears refuse to give up: establish largest gross short position in WTI last week since start of Sep:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


-William

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #1359 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 650 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 294 given, 529 received

Digging through some old files I came across this

The attached is from Forex Factory thread trading supply and demand

The cheat sheet is something that Sam Seiden (?) put together

Anyway thought it may be of use

-William

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-sseidentrade-cheat-sheet.pdf

EDIT

Here's a scan I did from Open Office (website won't upload an OO doc)

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-seidensupdem0001.pdf


Last edited by WilleeMac; November 4th, 2015 at 04:41 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to WilleeMac for this post:
 
  #1360 (permalink)
Chief Bottle Washer
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: /CL
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 
Posts: 650 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 294 given, 529 received


Various tid bits in the article


Quoting 
OPEC oil ministers meet on Dec. 4 to decide whether to extend the strategy of allowing prices to fall to slow higher-cost rival supply. Since November 2014, when the group adopted that policy, OPEC production has risen but prices have deepened their collapse, hurting oil revenue.

The report sees only a gentle recovery over the next few years in oil prices LCOc1, which have more than halved to $50 a barrel since June 2014 due to plentiful supply.

OPEC's basket of crude oils is assumed in the report at $55 in 2015 and to rise by $5 a year to reach $80 by 2020.

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-opec-report-idUSKCN0ST20620151104#AYiBU4AaFd7BichB.99

Exclusive: OPEC confidential report sees market share squeeze to 2019 | Reuters

-William

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures.io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

« Seasonal Trades | - »
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

2016 True Edge Awards: Voting is open until Jan 21!

Now
 

An Afternoon with FIO member Massive l

Elite only
 

Anthony Drager: Pulling the trigger with confidence

Elite only
 

Leo Murphy: The Art and Science of Technical Analysis

Elite only
 

FuturesTrader71: Ask Me Anything

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:24 PM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-01-18 in 0.12 seconds with 21 queries on phoenix via your IP 174.129.78.73