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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,568 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old October 27th, 2015, 05:13 PM   #1351 (permalink)
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Yes, ~56M bbl more in the market now from the SPR stock. I wonder at what price they bought, or used to buy.

I would go short on the retail bus if I had the cash now.

Bad timing and there is no real need I guess (or "act of god") to justify it.

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Old October 27th, 2015, 06:11 PM   #1352 (permalink)
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Doesn't start until 2018 and it's only 5mil/year initially. That's only 13.7kb/day.

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Old October 28th, 2015, 12:16 PM   #1353 (permalink)
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Cushing inventory tends to have dips about now and then rise through end of year.

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Old October 28th, 2015, 12:18 PM   #1354 (permalink)
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But refineries did increase input early this year.

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Old October 29th, 2015, 11:10 AM   #1355 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
OIL VOLATILITY has surged in 2015. WTI has been more volatile than at any time since 2008/9 and before that 1991.

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https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/659695813220769793

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Old October 29th, 2015, 11:55 AM   #1356 (permalink)
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CL is basically tracking ES this morning session.

went up $1 and now it have dropped $1

There seems to be relatively large orders bought at 46.70 but CL still went down with ES as it falls from 2084 to 2076

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Old October 30th, 2015, 09:37 AM   #1357 (permalink)
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Mr Kemp chimes in on volatility OCT 30 2015


Quoting 
The chief of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned a conference last week the oil market had already experienced 35 "flash events" since the start of the year.

CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad defined flash events as occasions on which prices moved by at least 200 basis points within an hour but returned to within 75 basis points of the starting position within the same hour ("Evolving structure of the U.S. Treasury market" Oct. 21).

The definition, which Massad acknowledged was "somewhat arbitrary", was derived from the significant round-trip move in the price of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds in October 2014.

The large move and retracement in Treasury prices between 0933 ET and 0945 ET on Oct. 15, 2014, had only been exceeded on three times since 1998 ("Joint Staff Report on the U.S. Treasury Market," July 2015).

COLUMN-Volatility and flash events in the oil market: Kemp | Reuters

Below is a PDF with some vol charts etc

-William

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-oil-market-volatility-measures.pdf

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Old November 2nd, 2015, 08:38 AM   #1358 (permalink)
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John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 2h2 hours ago

HEDGE FUND oil bears refuse to give up: establish largest gross short position in WTI last week since start of Sep:

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Old November 4th, 2015, 10:50 AM   #1359 (permalink)
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Digging through some old files I came across this

The attached is from Forex Factory thread trading supply and demand

The cheat sheet is something that Sam Seiden (?) put together

Anyway thought it may be of use

-William

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-sseidentrade-cheat-sheet.pdf

EDIT

Here's a scan I did from Open Office (website won't upload an OO doc)

The CL Crude-analysis Thread-seidensupdem0001.pdf


Last edited by WilleeMac; November 4th, 2015 at 04:41 PM.
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Old November 4th, 2015, 12:54 PM   #1360 (permalink)
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Various tid bits in the article


Quoting 
OPEC oil ministers meet on Dec. 4 to decide whether to extend the strategy of allowing prices to fall to slow higher-cost rival supply. Since November 2014, when the group adopted that policy, OPEC production has risen but prices have deepened their collapse, hurting oil revenue.

The report sees only a gentle recovery over the next few years in oil prices LCOc1, which have more than halved to $50 a barrel since June 2014 due to plentiful supply.

OPEC's basket of crude oils is assumed in the report at $55 in 2015 and to rise by $5 a year to reach $80 by 2020.

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-opec-report-idUSKCN0ST20620151104#AYiBU4AaFd7BichB.99

Exclusive: OPEC confidential report sees market share squeeze to 2019 | Reuters

-William

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