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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,247 / 1,753
Last Reply:20 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old October 21st, 2015, 02:23 PM   #1331 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I got a laugh from reading this

Just to clarify... I didn't understand his data so sent him a private message to discuss rather than hash it out here in front of everybody. It turns out the data in the first chart is Total Crude Stocks in the US including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR"). No lecturing involved I promise.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 02:46 PM   #1332 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Just to clarify... I didn't understand his data so sent him a private message to discuss rather than hash it out here in front of everybody. It turns out the data in the first chart is Total Crude Stocks in the US including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR"). No lecturing involved I promise.

As I told @SMCJB privately, I really appreciate his input. Lecture was probably not the best term though. My english is still a little rough. (That's my excuse for everything).

But yes, big difference when you add the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. For commercial purposes is best to leave out of the equation.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 03:26 PM   #1333 (permalink)
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Here is a weekly chart. The CL price is the Tuesday settlement the day before the EIA oil inventory is released.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 03:35 PM   #1334 (permalink)
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Just eyeballing that chart really seems like prices lead the stock changes by 3 months...
  • Prices peak mid Jun-14, Stocks bottom End Sep-14, ie 3 months
  • Prices bottom Jan-15, Stocks peak Mid Apr-15, ie 3 months
  • Prices peak May-15, Stocks bottom End Aug-15, ie 3 months
  • Prices bottom mid Aug-15, Stocks currently increasing fast. Peak in November???

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Old October 21st, 2015, 04:05 PM   #1335 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Just eyeballing that chart really seems like prices lead the stock changes by 3 months...
  • Prices peak mid Jun-14, Stocks bottom End Sep-14, ie 3 months
  • Prices bottom Jan-15, Stocks peak Mid Apr-15, ie 3 months
  • Prices peak May-15, Stocks bottom End Aug-15, ie 3 months
  • Prices bottom mid Aug-15, Stocks currently increasing fast. Peak in November???

Yes seasonally inventory usually peaks in Nov. But last year it peaked at Christmas.

It is extremely rare for inventory to peak higher in Nov than the Apr-May peak. But 2 more weeks like the last two will do it. And I doubt the peak will be in 2 weeks.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 05:20 PM   #1336 (permalink)
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@SMCJB thank you very much for the info/ reply. I'm still trying to scrape my brains together on the info you provided (Slight explosion.)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

John Kemp ‏@JKempEnergy 6h6 hours ago

US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS are running high during maintenance season with surplus going into refinery/merchant storage

-William

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Old October 21st, 2015, 09:07 PM   #1337 (permalink)
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Interesting opinion article.


Quoting 
But as a build-up of oil tankers outside Chinese ports have proven in recent weeks, the spike in freight rates is not due to a ramp up in demand, but instead due to over-congestion. Wait times outside Chinese ports have lengthened considerably, although producers have the consolation that those barrels are already committed to an end-user.

The situation in the US Gulf is not much different. Over the last couple of weeks, vessels have been sitting at anchor for longer before off-loading. This has pushed the total overhang sitting off-shore in the Gulf close to 20 million barrels, double the usual volume that is waiting to discharge. To put this into perspective: This is an entire week’s worth of imports for Gulf Coast refiners.

Tanker Activity Shows Global Crude Market is Saturated | ClipperData

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Old October 22nd, 2015, 08:52 AM   #1338 (permalink)
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@SMCJB

I'm understanding what you put forth earlier, again thank you

From what research I've done it seems there are differences between option calendar's/ butterfly's and using futures with the same strategy.

The way I used calendars (I understand there's different ways/ approach) sell the front month calls or puts and buy out in the future at the same strike price. Of course depending on time decay, objective etc the front month could be two months out or more.

As of today I would consider sell NOV, buy DEC or sell DEC buy FEB etc. For butterfly's I would go to NOV buy one, sell two, buy one ie calls in SPY +1 203.5 -2 202.5 +1 201.5 (ATM call butterfly.)

In the example/ scenario you gave for a calendar in /CL it would be buy JAN sell FEB, MAR, APR etc

Anyway, thanks for the help and getting my gears turning et al

-William

EDIT

I did a little more research into a futures Butterfly and this is an example I came across

+ JUN 2010, -2 DEC 2010, + JUN 2011

Using this equation for /CL and CME settlement prices from 10-21-15

+ Z15 (45.20) -2 M16 (48.90) + Z16 (50.89) DEC, JUN, DEC respectively


Last edited by WilleeMac; October 22nd, 2015 at 05:03 PM.
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Old October 23rd, 2015, 09:20 AM   #1339 (permalink)
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It seems that CL does not have the same magnitude of response to the easing announcements from ECB (yesterday) and China ( this morning) like the stock markets.

Is this normal?

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Old October 23rd, 2015, 12:45 PM   #1340 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
It seems that CL does not have the same magnitude of response to the easing announcements from ECB (yesterday) and China ( this morning) like the stock markets.

Is this normal?

I think CL is beginning to be influenced by the large stock overhang rearing its head again. If you look at Brent, that's reacting very differently.

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