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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,726 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old October 20th, 2015, 01:13 PM   #1321 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
Can you use this to game them into improving your fill? For example, place an improved limit on the Offer - they jump ahead of you again - you rinse and repeat until the point in which you pull your Offer and lift theirs?

That's illegal.


Quoting 
CFTC seeks civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and permanent injunctions

Washington, DC – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil Complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, charging Igor B. Oystacher and his proprietary trading company, 3 Red Trading LLC (3 Red), both of Chicago, Illinois, with spoofing and employment of a manipulative and deceptive device while trading futures on four different futures exchanges.
...
The Complaint alleges that Oystacher and 3 Red engaged in this scheme by manually placing large passive orders on one side of the market at or near the best bid or offer price, which they intended to cancel before execution – and thus are regarded as “spoof orders.” These orders were placed through accounts owned by 3 Red, to create the false impression of growing market interest to trade in a certain direction (to either buy or sell) and to induce other market participants into placing orders on the same side of the market and at similar price levels as the spoof orders. According to the Complaint, Oystacher and 3 Red would then cancel or attempt to cancel all of the spoof orders before they were executed and virtually simultaneously “flip” their position from buy to sell (or vice versa) by placing at least one aggressive order on the other side of the market at the same or better price to trade with market participants that had been induced to enter the market by the spoof orders that were just canceled.

CFTC Charges Chicago Trader Igor B. Oystacher & His Proprietary Trading Company, 3 Red Trading LLC, with Spoofing and Employment of a Manipulative and Deceptive Device while Trading E-Mini S&P 500, Copper, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and VIX Futures Cont

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Old October 20th, 2015, 01:22 PM   #1322 (permalink)
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Thanks Ron. It never even occurred to me that this could be seen as spoofing seeing as you of course have the possibility they take your order. What if you wanted to genuinely Offer that price, but then the lower it got your view changed and you thought it was too cheap so bought? Guess this is all speculation/semantics and the CFTC would decide (probably against you).

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Old October 20th, 2015, 02:05 PM   #1323 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
Can you use this to game them into improving your fill? For example, place an improved limit on the Offer - they jump ahead of you again - you rinse and repeat until the point in which you pull your Offer and lift theirs?

it's unlikely that you'd be fast enough to cancel your order and hit theirs, unless you sent both orders at the same time, which if you did would probably be the text book definition of what they are trying to stop.

Either way it's sort of irrelevant because if you put an order out there that has 1 tic margin in it somebody will take it regardless of where the shown market is. For example lets say that you have looked at Dec16, Dec16/17, Dec17/18, Dec18/19 and have calculated the inside market for Dec19 should be 5810/5830. When you look at the screen though you see a market of 5750/5850. Being a seller you offer 5840 and immediately it becomes offered at 5839. You offer 5830 and nothing happens. You offer 5820 and nothing happens. You offer 5810 and nothing happens. You offer 5809 and your offer is lifted immediately. In this example if your commission rate is >$1.25 per side you should offer 5809s but if you rate is <$1.25 side you should actually sell Dec16 and do the 16/17, 17/18 and 18/19 rolls yourself.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 11:28 AM   #1324 (permalink)
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Looks like the Crude fall is resuming despite the demand for Diesel at this time of the year...

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Old October 21st, 2015, 11:42 AM   #1325 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

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After this weeks 8kkb build crude stocks are less than 15kkb off all time highs. With probably at least a month before crude runs start increasing again, they will probably continue to build.

Interestingly when we put those storage highs in, back in April, Crude was already well off its March lows and heading higher.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 12:10 PM   #1326 (permalink)
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Ending stocks vs. price up to 7-15.

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When do we get the new Ending Stocks from EIA?

The EIA Excel Add-In works nice. I suggest whoever follows this thread to download it.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 12:18 PM   #1327 (permalink)
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@ElChacal Whats the (right) scale on that?

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Old October 21st, 2015, 12:23 PM   #1328 (permalink)
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Thousand Barrels. Let me tweak the graph and repost.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 01:10 PM   #1329 (permalink)
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After a private lecture from @SMCJB on what data to look at on an EIA report. Below the corrected graph.
Once more, thanks @SMCJB.

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Old October 21st, 2015, 01:51 PM   #1330 (permalink)
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After a private lecture from @SMCJB

I got a laugh from reading this



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