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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,089 / 1,755
Last Reply:17 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old September 10th, 2015, 02:26 PM   #1291 (permalink)
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Chinese Crude Benchmark

Like it or not, China's crude oil futures will be a global benchmark | Reuters


Quoting 
China's push to establish a crude derivatives contract has been met with early scepticism, but oil executives say the country's growing economic influence means a third global crude benchmark is inevitable.

A derivatives contract would give the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, known as INE, a slice of an oil futures market worth trillions of dollars, offering a rival to London's Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

And while others have tried and failed, China brings its might as the world's biggest oil buyer, a strong dose of political will and the alignment of its financial and banking system for a yuan-denominated contract.

This could be good for the industry - especially as China is the world's second largest consumer. One major problem I see would be that it's yuan-denominated which wouldn't bode well if the PBoC continue some of their currency rate shenanigans. Then again if they decide to float their currency and remove the peg then a Chinese 'petro-dollar' could be quite powerful.

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Old September 10th, 2015, 02:34 PM   #1292 (permalink)
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My personal opinion is that it won't become a major contract, for two major reasons. The first as @CobblersAwls says, who wants to trade a yuan denominated contract (other than the Chinese) but secondly who is going to want to deploy significant capital into a market where the government could intervene and do anything they want at any time, including manipulating the market & halting the market.

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Old September 10th, 2015, 06:06 PM   #1293 (permalink)
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US oil production is down 500,000 brls/day.
US oil imports are down 500,000 brls/day.
But US oil input to refineries is down 1,000,000 brls/day.

Input to refineries last week per day was 16,110,000.
US production plus imports per day were 16,594,000.

Inventories still growing.

Where did you find this? EIA?

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Old September 10th, 2015, 07:13 PM   #1294 (permalink)
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Where did you find this? EIA?

Yes
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Data

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Old September 10th, 2015, 10:40 PM   #1295 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Following on from my prior post ( https://futures.io/commodities-futures-trading/34295-cl-crude-oil-futures-contract-crude-analysis-thread-128.html#post518356)

Here is the latest results from the 'China Oil Balance' data. It shows that net crude oil imports fell in August to 26.37 - moving lower back towards it's annual SMA of 27.1268:

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Old September 11th, 2015, 10:07 AM   #1296 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
US oil production is down 500,000 brls/day.
US oil imports are down 500,000 brls/day.
But US oil input to refineries is down 1,000,000 brls/day.

Input to refineries last week per day was 16,110,000.
US production plus imports per day were 16,594,000.

Inventories still growing.

Worth noting that even with the production ESTIMATE drop, production is still 500,000bbl/day higher than a year ago and only back to levels seen at the beginning of this year.
Maybe more concerning is that refinery runs seasonally drop at least another 1 million bbl/day over the next 2 months.
As such crude inventories seasonally increase by 20ish million bbls in the next 2 months. If that happens it will put us close to the Apr all time stock highs.

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Old September 11th, 2015, 11:35 AM   #1297 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Worth noting that even with the production ESTIMATE drop, production is still 500,000bbl/day higher than a year ago and only back to levels seen at the beginning of this year.
Maybe more concerning is that refinery runs seasonally drop at least another 1 million bbl/day over the next 2 months.
As such crude inventories seasonally increase by 20ish million bbls in the next 2 months. If that happens it will put us close to the Apr all time stock highs.

The average drop in oil input to refineries from middle of July to middle of Oct is 1.235 for the years 2010-2014.

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Oil inventory the last 5 years has started to rise the week ending 9/09. The 5 year average rise is 10 million barrels but that is affected by the 2011 abnormal drop in inventory. 2014 was up 15 mil. In 2013 +36 mil. 2012 +19 mil. 2011 it decreased 25 mil. 2010 +10 mil. If you throw out the high and the low then the average is 15 mil.

This year the rise started 2 weeks early. Mainly because oil input to refineries has decreased this year faster than normal from the peak.

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Old September 15th, 2015, 10:47 AM   #1298 (permalink)
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random order

On my iphone logged on to my options express account after my swim
around 8:00 am CL - 44.44 +0.44+ (1.00 %)
then again while walking around 9:40 am logged on - CL - 44.44 +0.44 (1.00 %)

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Old September 15th, 2015, 11:03 AM   #1299 (permalink)
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Starting to look like a bullish flag pattern, that is probably too optimistic though. I am still holding my USO shares waiting for them to pay off LOL.

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Old September 22nd, 2015, 03:22 PM   #1300 (permalink)
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Macro Keys - The Imminent Inflation Increase (UBS)


A decent read for anyone interested.

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