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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,698 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old August 31st, 2015, 09:24 PM   #1271 (permalink)
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Random Musings of a Spread Trader...

Almost exactly one month later, same price - much steeper curve

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Which leads to...

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Disclaimer :- No CLV5 positions - Long CL-Z5M6Z6 Butterfly.

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Old September 1st, 2015, 02:13 PM   #1272 (permalink)
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Big Move Today.
V ~ 4560 & ZMZ ~ -110
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Old September 1st, 2015, 08:43 PM   #1273 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Big Move Today.
V ~ 4560 & ZMZ ~ -110
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Nice trading!

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Old September 1st, 2015, 09:34 PM   #1274 (permalink)
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Nice trading!

I wish. Didn't have enough on. My models start scaling me out of my positions 100 days DTE so position was smaller than it might have been.

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Old September 2nd, 2015, 06:57 AM   #1275 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Something that might be of interest

You can email John Kemp to get on his mailing list for

"Best in Energy News" and his notes

John.Kemp@thomsonreuters.com

-William

EDIT

One of the articles in his email

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/01/oil-caribbean-storage-idUSL1N10U1SD20150901

Full disclosure

I am not affiliated with this service, only a free FYI


Last edited by WilleeMac; September 2nd, 2015 at 08:28 AM.
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Old September 2nd, 2015, 10:57 AM   #1276 (permalink)
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Interesting article on LNG and a new export facility in Louisiana

A little lengthy (?) to peruse but certainly worth a scan


Quoting 
And pretty much like that, he was a self-appointed energy executive. Armed with the technology, Souki looked into exploring for oil in the shallow waters of the Louisiana coast. Major companies had moved on to deeper waters, yet tiny pockets of oil and gas remained. Drilling for it would take tens of millions of dollars. Souki figured the best way to raise that kind of money was to sell shares to the public. Rather than start his own company, he bought a dead one. In 1996 he took over the shell of a defunct film-colorization company whose shares still traded. He changed the name to Cheniere—Cajun for “high ground looking over a swamp”—opened an office in Houston, hired a bunch of geologists and engineers, and became the founder and chief executive of a publicly traded energy company.

America?s Most Unlikely Energy Project Is Rising From a Louisiana Bayou - Bloomberg Business

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Old September 2nd, 2015, 11:34 AM   #1277 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Front-month Brent crude futures rose by more than 10 percent on Thursday, 5 percent on Friday and 8 percent on Monday, before plunging by more than 8 percent on Tuesday.

To put that in context, the percentage daily price movements were 4.6 standard deviations away from the mean on Thursday, 2.4 standard deviations on Friday, 3.7 on Monday and 3.8 on Tuesday.

If price changes followed a normal distribution, a move of 3.5 standard deviations should occur only once every eight years and a move of greater than 4.5 standard deviations should happen once every six centuries.

COLUMN-Oil market takes a walk on the wild side (again): Kemp | Reuters

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Old September 2nd, 2015, 12:29 PM   #1278 (permalink)
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It looks like folks here enjoy charts and graphs

The attachment was sent to me because of being on Kemp's email list

The pdf contains "selected indicators"

I do not know if he sends this out every week or not, I recently asked to be added. However I do follow him on twitter

-William

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread-eia-weekly-petroleum-status-report.pdf  
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Old September 2nd, 2015, 01:16 PM   #1279 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Something that might be of interest

You can email John Kemp to get on his mailing list for

"Best in Energy News" and his notes

John.Kemp@thomsonreuters.com

I follow him on twitter, if you use it check him out, he posts good charts and some analysis: @JKempEnergy

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Old September 2nd, 2015, 10:11 PM   #1280 (permalink)
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Some charts of interest


Image 1:

Despite some claims in the news, Chinese demand for crude oil doesn't seem to be waning. Although its demand for refined products has decreased, this has been gradual as the country began to develop its own refining technology. It's demand for crude oil hasn't suffered yet with the latest report from 31st July showing it's highest peak (30.3755).

The next report is due on the 8th Sept for the month of August so it will be interesting to see if things change drastically there.

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Image 2:

Iran coming back on the scene was another major concern for oil producing nations and was also mentioned as a reason for the decline in oil prices. Iran's output is currently 2,780 bpd - but even in its peak (March 2008) it was producing 4,020 bpd so the potential increase in supply is only 44% to it's peak. I suppose the short term issue could be mass storage volumes that are ready to ship which could increase production volumes.

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Just thought I would add something to the interesting conversations members were having last week regarding Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.

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