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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,131 / 1,753
Last Reply:54 Minutes Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old August 24th, 2015, 11:56 AM   #1251 (permalink)
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I did one thing right today. Got out of my long CLx5p30 at 0.40. Bid at 0.29 now. Bought at 0.12.

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Old August 24th, 2015, 06:49 PM   #1252 (permalink)
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God help us, $32 coming!
@zerohedge: Gartman: "we are this morning turning bullish of crude oil"

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/634720000327184384

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Gartman on CNBC. "I made a mistake, I was too early, I'm now on the sidelines"

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Old August 24th, 2015, 07:07 PM   #1253 (permalink)
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Gartman on CNBC. "I made a mistake, I was too early, I'm now on the sidelines"

Why the media keeps bringing out these clueless analysts with poor track records just amazes me.

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Old August 24th, 2015, 08:25 PM   #1254 (permalink)
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Why the media keeps bringing out these clueless analysts with poor track records just amazes me.

They've always done that. The track record doesn't matter, just that they say something to fill up air time, and that they say it with excitement and conviction.

It sells soap (or whatever the sponsor is.)

Bob.

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Old August 24th, 2015, 08:49 PM   #1255 (permalink)
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@MktOutperform: All the focus on equities while Crude quietly continues lower. Largest 5-quarter decline in history: 63.5%. $CL_F pic.twitter.com/EaBSV2H0sv

https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/635887202560425985

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Old August 25th, 2015, 01:07 PM   #1256 (permalink)
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BP restarted Whiting refinery today. Should mean builds in oil inventory will decrease or become withdrawals for a short time.

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Old August 25th, 2015, 04:06 PM   #1257 (permalink)
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For Saudi Arabia, The Music Just Stopped: Scramble To Slash Spending Begins As Oil Math Reveals Dire Picture | Zero Hedge

What do you guys make of the Saudi situation? I was under the impression they purposely were leading oil prices lower some time ago, in order to cause some capitulation of all the new rigs in the US (and globally), believing they could "out last" the rest of the world and wanted to force their hands to regain a larger percentage of the sales.

But in recent months headlines suggest they are in dire economic straits, which is contrary to my earlier belief.

Thoughts?

Mike

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Old August 25th, 2015, 04:10 PM   #1258 (permalink)
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For Saudi Arabia, The Music Just Stopped: Scramble To Slash Spending Begins As Oil Math Reveals Dire Picture | Zero Hedge

What do you guys make of the Saudi situation? I was under the impression they purposely were leading oil prices lower some time ago, in order to cause some capitulation of all the new rigs in the US (and globally), believing they could "out last" the rest of the world and wanted to force their hands to regain a larger percentage of the sales.

But in recent months headlines suggest they are in dire economic straits, which is contrary to my earlier belief.

Thoughts?

Mike

Almost a year ago I talked to a hedge guy for an oil company in Houston and he talked about the Saudi's trying to kill the competition with lower prices. He seemed pretty sure they could survive a long term down turn in price. So that article seems surprising.

But on the other side, they might not have fully anticipated the damage to themselves they would cause. I can't say I feel sorry for them.

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Old August 25th, 2015, 05:25 PM   #1259 (permalink)
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It is not that simple like described in the ZH article. As well they used very basic scenarios that did not assume oil prices fluctuations, flexibility in the military spending, spending cuts magnitude, changes in geopolitical situation and alternative sources of income. Saudi still have very large reserves and they will spend them wisely. The situation with oil prices/supply/demand is much more complicated than it seems to be. There is also "demand destruction" factor which is yet to be realized by many oil-revenue-dependent countries. Alternative energy is already everywhere and expanding but the odd is that all alternative energy companies (from industrial solutions to Tesla to PV panel makers) need higher oil prices to retain and increase their market share, to be profitable and to be able to invest further into technology. If Saudis were convinced in the long term oil market stability, they would slightly cut production a year ago. They didn't. There are much bigger things at stake for the big oil game than just a transitory budget deficit.

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Old August 25th, 2015, 06:36 PM   #1260 (permalink)
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I'm not a fundamental's expert but as I see it production is not going down any time in the next 6 months, infact with Iran it may be going up. Add in the fact that US refinery runs/inputs are probably about to drop 1.5+kkb/day in the next 2 months and I can foresee stocks increasing significantly. The Big question is, how much of that is priced in with this plunge below $40. Obviously a lot of the selling the last few days is probably liquidation/risk off type selling, but crude has been going down for longer than a few days.

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