The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 123) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,309 / 1,753
Last Reply:Yesterday (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old August 12th, 2015, 02:41 PM   #1221 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Geez the long RBu short CLu spread has made $2,000 since 10am today.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 04:36 PM   #1222 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received


ElChacal View Post
The spread that I believe looks good is to buy the refined = RB Sept. (currently Inversed) and sell the raw = Crude maybe Oct.

@ron99

Good call. I just need to repeat more of these now and actually trade them. LOL.

Reply With Quote
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 05:11 PM   #1223 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



ElChacal View Post
@ron99

Good call. I just need to repeat more of these now and actually trade them. LOL.

Same here.

If only I could go back and actually trade some of the ideas I had thought about but didn't act on I would be richer.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 06:17 PM   #1224 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,351 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ElChacal View Post
@SMCJB do you take positions for the following quarter then?
Isn't that a bit risky in CL considering it lacks seasonality?

Bulk of my positions are currently in the Dec15-Dec17 window although I do still have a smaller position in Nov15 which I'm currently liquidating and some odd lots past Dec17. I'm not sure I understand your question regarding risk and seasonality? (Are you implying seasonality makes commodities less risky?)

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 06:35 PM   #1225 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 

SMCJB View Post
Bulk of my positions are currently in the Dec15-Dec17 window although I do still have a smaller position in Nov15 which I'm currently liquidating and some odd lots past Dec17. I'm not sure I understand your question regarding risk and seasonality? (Are you implying seasonality makes commodities less risky?)

Well what I meant is that I have read about Corn trading from Dec15 to Dec16 and Jul-Dec on other seasonal crops basically the common wisdom on spread patterns but I hadn't heard about sth similar with CL.
Very interesting, I'm a newbie on all this spreading stuff and futures in general. I appreciate the input. Thanks.

Reply With Quote
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 09:52 PM   #1226 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 45,539 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 28,884 given, 80,124 received

@Howardlindzon: @MktOutperform: Worst Crude Declines: '85-'86: -63% '90-'91: -51% '96-'98: -53% '08-'09: -68% '14-Today: -59%" pic.twitter.com/kdhkoWda7A

https://twitter.com/howardlindzon/status/631500985622466560

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Sent from my phone

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
     

Old August 13th, 2015, 10:45 AM   #1227 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,351 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ElChacal View Post
Well what I meant is that I have read about Corn trading from Dec15 to Dec16 and Jul-Dec on other seasonal crops basically the common wisdom on spread patterns but I hadn't heard about sth similar with CL.
Very interesting, I'm a newbie on all this spreading stuff and futures in general. I appreciate the input. Thanks.

The way I think about it, there's seasonality that's caused by supply/demand imbalance and then there's seasonality caused by specification/product differences. I personally tend to think of them as two very different factors but of course they can be related and correlated

In energies when people talk about seasonality they often mean
  • Natural Gas - Demand>Supply in Winter, Supply>Demand most of the summer - Hence Winter trades at a premium to Summer.
  • Heating Oil - Same as NatGas. Demand>Supply in Winter, Supply>Demand in summer - Hence Winter trades at a premium to Summer.
  • Gasoline/RBOB - Opposite. Demand>Supply in Summer, Supply>Demand in Winter - Hence Summer trades at a premium to Winter.
A great example of that seasonality is the March/April spread in Natural Gas. If NatGas stocks are low going into a winter, March/April (aka "The Widow Maker") will scream to prices that seem completely unrealistic. If stocks are high, March/April drops to flat.

With regards to specification or product changes the most obvious in energies is
  • Gasoline/RBOB - RVP specs in the summer are more restrictive than the Winter, so the cost to make summer grade gasoline's is higher than winter grade.
While the examples above may seem obvious there are many less obvious examples. WTI when refined yields more Gasoline than Brent, and Brent yields more Heating Oil than WTI. Hence back in the days when Brent & WTI were both world Benchmarks, WTI traded at a higher premium in the summer than winter, because of the difference in product yields.

With regards to crops I believe what you referring to is what they call old crop/new crop but i'm not a Ags trader so I'll stick to energies.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 13th, 2015, 02:26 PM   #1228 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,351 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SMCJB View Post
The thing that would concern me about putting on any significant front end spread play currently is where the butterflys are trading. UVX is trading +27 as we speak, VXZ is trading -10 but then the next 5 flys are all around -6. That's a rather strange relationship and implies to me that something not normal is going on. Why is Sep/Oct worth 27 more than Oct/Nov when the market is apparently as weak as it is? But then Oct/Nov is worth 10 less than Nov/Dec which is maybe more what we would expect. When Sep expires, is the same dynamic suddenly going to apply to Oct/Nov, or is Sep actually holding Oct/Nov up and when it expires that spread plummets?

Market down again today, contango widening significantly in the first 12 months EXCEPT for Sep/Oct!
Sep/Oct ~ -72 (-1 on day)
Oct/Nov ~ -119 (-16)
Nov/Dec ~ -99 (-9)
Dec/Jan ~ -92 (-8)
Jan/Feb ~ -84 (-7)
Means the Sep/Oct/Nov Butterfly is now trading +47 (+15 on day) while Oct/Nov/Dec ~ -20 (-7) and Nov/Dec/Jan ~ -7 (-1).
To continue my terrible timing this month I'm now pretty much flat Nov, having taken my Nov/Dec position off over the last 3 days.
Urhhh!

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 14th, 2015, 12:03 PM   #1229 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting info.


Quoting 
U.S. shale oil production amounted to just 5 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of 2014, less than 6 percent of world production and consumption.

Despite the shale sector’s small market share, it has disrupted the entire oil industry because it emerged in the middle of the cost curve and has accounted for more than half of the increase in global supplies since 2010.

Between 2010 and 2014, shale output rose by 4 million bpd, accounting for more than half of the 7 million bpd increase in global liquids production over the same period, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Oil market adjustment is about more than just shale: Kemp | Reuters

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old August 16th, 2015, 09:34 PM   #1230 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received


@SMCJB conventional wisdom states at this time of year is storage time for HO before first winter cold strikes.
What's your take on this? The Sept-Feb spread looks interesting.

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:56 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-03 in 0.19 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.166.48.3