The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 122) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,189 / 1,756
Last Reply:4 Hours Ago (11:31 AM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old August 11th, 2015, 02:33 PM   #1211 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,587 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ron99 View Post
IMO oil will be staying here or going lower the next 3 months. Record refinery oil demand now will drop off when summer driving is done. Oil production has not dropped enough to hold prices.
image...

Refinery input peaks about now and then drops off to Nov.
image...

That means that oil inventory will start growing again.
image...

Hedge fund longs have increased the last 2 weeks. If they have to bail out then prices will drop further than expected.

Thanks @ron99. I reach similar conclusions.
I would add that imports have also been a multi-year lows for most of the last 3 months - which is probably not surprising given production is at highs - while inports have increased from the lows, the last 2 years they have increased further over the next several weeks before dropping again in Q4. Prior to that imports tended to drop in 2H more in line with runs.
Do you happen to have a chart for crude imports? (not sure on the copyright of mine)

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 11th, 2015, 02:43 PM   #1212 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 588 received


DeadCatBounced View Post
Anyone thinking about taking a swing trade on the (possible) cycle low for oil?

What has peoples experience been trading USO?

I cant comment based on an intra-day basis but for long(er) time frames I recommend either being short or avoiding it completely. I went long it in 2009 at 34 with crude at $40. I scratched (!!!) the trade some months later with crude at $60. Now with crude roughly at the same price it was when I got long back in the day USO is amazingly 14 and change. Contango just eats this product alive.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
     

Old August 11th, 2015, 03:23 PM   #1213 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received


@SMCJB Yes, the wise thing to do as I understand it with a Contango is to "buy" the spread, ( buy the deferred and sell the near). Sept-Oct up, Oct-Nov up, etc. The problem is that once the move is on, do you really want to chase it?

The spread that I believe looks good is to buy the refined = RB Sept. (currently Inversed) and sell the raw = Crude maybe Oct.

Reply With Quote
     

Old August 11th, 2015, 03:35 PM   #1214 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,330 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,910 received


SMCJB View Post
Thanks @ron99. I reach similar conclusions.
I would add that imports have also been a multi-year lows for most of the last 3 months - which is probably not surprising given production is at highs - while inports have increased from the lows, the last 2 years they have increased further over the next several weeks before dropping again in Q4. Prior to that imports tended to drop in 2H more in line with runs.
Do you happen to have a chart for crude imports? (not sure on the copyright of mine)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old August 11th, 2015, 04:22 PM   #1215 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,587 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 

DeadCatBounced View Post
Anyone thinking about taking a swing trade on the (possible) cycle low for oil?

What has peoples experience been trading USO?


Profiler View Post
I cant comment based on an intra-day basis but for long(er) time frames I recommend either being short or avoiding it completely. I went long it in 2009 at 34 with crude at $40. I scratched (!!!) the trade some months later with crude at $60. Now with crude roughly at the same price it was when I got long back in the day USO is amazingly 14 and change. Contango just eats this product alive.

Agree with @Profiler, roll yield will kill you in contango markets.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 10:15 AM   #1216 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,330 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,910 received


ElChacal View Post
The spread that I believe looks good is to buy the refined = RB Sept. (currently Inversed) and sell the raw = Crude maybe Oct.

Here is why that spread worked on Tuesday.


Quoting 
Aug 11 (Reuters) - Heavy damage to the largest crude distillation unit at BP Plc's 413,500-barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana, refinery will require at least a month to repair, sources familiar with the refinery's plans said on Tuesday.

The sources stressed that the time frame for the CDU's restart was preliminary and may change.

"I would expect longer rather than shorter," one of the sources said.


Quoting 
The Whiting crude unit outage was said to contribute to U.S. crude's fall of $1.88, or more than 4 percent, to $43.08 a barrel, the lowest settlement since March 2009, and about $1 above the 2015 contract low on March 18.

RBOB gasoline in the New York Harbor was virtually unchanged from Monday at $1.6937 a gallon, but up 7 cents a gallion from Friday's finish.

UPDATE 3-BP's main crude unit at Whiting shut for at least a month -sources | Reuters

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 11:08 AM   #1217 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received

@ron99 Thanks for the input.
I really missed the fact that RB is inverted almost all year round due to its demand (or so they say). So it was really a "guess" call.

I have an open question:

I am trying to understand how Commercials Net Position affect prices in Contango and Inverted markets? Does anybody have an input on this? I mean, it makes sense to me to see a Net Long position in Contango but maybe somebody could share a setup not only in CL but other instruments (ie grains, gold, etc).

Reply With Quote
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 01:41 PM   #1218 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,587 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Mag: (EIA) Report: Crude supply to outstrip demand through 2016

Report: Crude supply to outstrip demand through 2016 | Futures Magazine

Crude oil prices continued their slide yesterday mostly driven by the surprise devaluation of the Chinese currency. This action by the Chinese government sent a message to the world that all is not rosy in China and stimulus and monetary policy actions will continue to be the norm.

So far in early morning trading, prices are rebounding modestly on a supportive monthly oil market forecast issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA forecast showed a stronger than anticipated level of global demand as well as non-OPEC crude production moving into a modest contraction in 2016.

More...

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 02:10 PM   #1219 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,587 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,395 given, 2,362 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

As I mentioned I don't like having positions close to the front because that's when fundamentals can really distort the curve and there are companies out there that have a significant advantage in the fundamental picture. Remember CL now represents the price of crude at a constrained delivery point and is no longer the world benchmark it used to be.

The thing that would concern me about putting on any significant front end spread play currently is where the butterflys are trading. UVX is trading +27 as we speak, VXZ is trading -10 but then the next 5 flys are all around -6. That's a rather strange relationship and implies to me that something not normal is going on. Why is Sep/Oct worth 27 more than Oct/Nov when the market is apparently as weak as it is? But then Oct/Nov is worth 10 less than Nov/Dec which is maybe more what we would expect. When Sep expires, is the same dynamic suddenly going to apply to Oct/Nov, or is Sep actually holding Oct/Nov up and when it expires that spread plummets?

Saying all that .. interestingly Brent seems to have a very similar structure which might imply it's not purely a Padd II crude issue.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old August 12th, 2015, 02:23 PM   #1220 (permalink)
Patience my young padawan
Houston, TX/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker/Data: IB / IB
Favorite Futures: ES & looking into commodities
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 306 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 367 given, 182 received


@SMCJB do you take positions for the following quarter then?
Isn't that a bit risky in CL considering it lacks seasonality?

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Trading Technologies: ADL hands-on

Dec 13

Normal webinar schedule resumes after the holidays

January

Ernie Chan: Risk Management

Elite only

Dedicated Trading Servers: Advantages/Disadvantages w/sam028

Elite only

An Afternoon with FIO member Massive I

Elite only

Leo Murphy: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:21 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts
Page generated 2016-12-10 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.87.114.118