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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,726 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old July 28th, 2015, 01:39 PM   #1191 (permalink)
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While Contango isn't as high as it was earlier in the year, Sep/Jun Brent is still trading nearly $5 which is over 50c/month. May not pay for floating storage but that definitely covers land storage costs.

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Old July 29th, 2015, 12:55 AM   #1192 (permalink)
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CL Seasonals

I know a few people here use seasonals. I was looking at them earlier and noticed some inverse-correlation between the Jan-Feb performance. Unfortunately you can only go back to 2006 so it's just over 9 years of data but would be interesting to see if it continues to repeat.

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Old July 29th, 2015, 10:25 AM   #1193 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
I know a few people here use seasonals. I was looking at them earlier and noticed some inverse-correlation between the Jan-Feb performance. Unfortunately you can only go back to 2006 so it's just over 9 years of data but would be interesting to see if it continues to repeat.

The down in Jan usually ends when the Feb contract expires.

Up in Feb is usually very strong.

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Old July 30th, 2015, 01:38 PM   #1194 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Working storage capacity at refineries, tank farms and underground storage facilities in the United States has increased by 85 million barrels, almost 19 percent, since 2011.

More than 45 million barrels of extra working capacity has been added in just the last two years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
...
In the same period, the amount of crude needed to fill pipelines and in transit by barge, tanker and rail has also jumped by 17 million barrels, as new oil pipelines and oil trains were added.


Quoting 
The oversupply in oil markets during the first half of 2015 was real, but the profitability of storage plays probably exaggerated the change in the overall stock situation in the short term.

COLUMN-U.S. oil storage becomes big business: Kemp | Reuters

This explains why I was off somewhat on predicting CL dropping earlier this year. They added much more capacity.

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Old August 2nd, 2015, 12:42 PM   #1195 (permalink)
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More Random Musings of a Spread Trader...

Significant curve shape change this month in the prompt 12 months, which was significantly amplified by Friday's move

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But September is prompt and distorting that chart... maybe slightly but the picture is still the same when we move back a little...

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Disclaimer: While I don't have any of these positions on exactly I do have on something resembling the XFH-HKN fly spread on

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Old August 3rd, 2015, 12:02 AM   #1196 (permalink)
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Sorry forgot the 3rd and potentially most important chart
XFH Butterfly is currently 3-5-7, HKN is 7-9-11 and the H-N spread is 3-11 spread.
Data is all of 2015, Red Triangle is 7/31
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Old August 3rd, 2015, 09:11 PM   #1197 (permalink)
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My 2 cents:
Day down, OVX up & Commercials still buying at good prices. We might still need to wait to see that bottom.

I can assure you construction of new CL storage has not slowed down this year.

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Old August 3rd, 2015, 11:02 PM   #1198 (permalink)
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@CobblersAwls on seasonality, would you rather look at Percentage of Up/Down Years or Avg. Percentile Change of that month?
I understand the latter is more valuable but when I plot it against price looks like another delayed indicator. Maybe it is not a timing signal I don't know...

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Old August 4th, 2015, 09:45 PM   #1199 (permalink)
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@MktOutperform: Crude trading below its 200-day moving average for over a year now, 2nd longest streak in history. $CL_F $USO pic.twitter.com/O4o5nxzlXK

https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/628646527297191936

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Old August 5th, 2015, 05:55 PM   #1200 (permalink)
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@MktOutperform: Crude trading below its 200-day moving average for over a year now, 2nd longest streak in history. $CL_F $USO pic.twitter.com/O4o5nxzlXK

https://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/628646527297191936

Attachment 189012

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mike,

is there anywhere on the forum where i can find harmonic rotation studies of CL? i apologize if this seems lazy

thanks.

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