The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 118) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,460 / 1,754
Last Reply:Yesterday (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old July 5th, 2015, 01:38 PM   #1171 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Canaduh
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Broker/Data: TD Waterhouse / kinetick
Favorite Futures: spx.xo
 
Posts: 23 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 3 given, 3 received

Data Quality

Hey,

I'm having trouble with CL data. For example, every charting software I use shows data for 5/25/2015 but the CME doesn't report any for that day. This causes me a problem as I'm trading off of swing high and swing low lines and an extra day in there changes where the line is in the future. The high values are also different than CME reports on 5/26 and 5/22 as well which tells me there is a problem. I'm not too excited about risking money with incorrect data.

I'm getting historical data for CME from Quandl and I assume it's accurate. It seems to match the data for the current contract from the CME website.

Anyone else having problems establishing correct data and what's been your solution?

any help is appreciated

thanks

Reply With Quote
     

Old July 5th, 2015, 08:29 PM   #1172 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,355 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


stockgoblin View Post
For example, every charting software I use shows data for 5/25/2015 but the CME doesn't report any for that day.

May 25th was the Memorial Day Holiday here in the US. The NYMEX Pits in New York did not open and there was no official settlement price. Globex was open though, but all trades executed on Globex on the 25th count as trade day 26th.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2015-memorial-day-holiday-schedule.pdf
Energy, Metals & DME Products
Friday, May 22
1615 CT / 1715 ET / 2115 UTC Regular close
Sunday, May 24
1700 CT / 1800 ET / 2200 UTC Regular open for trade date Tuesday, May 26*
Monday, May 25
1200 CT / 1300 ET / 1700 UTC Trading halt (pre-open)
1700 CT / 1800 ET / 2200 UTC Products resume trading
Tuesday, May 26
1615 CT / 1715 ET/ 2115 UTC Regular close

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old July 5th, 2015, 09:04 PM   #1173 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,355 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



purveyor View Post
Hello @SMCJB

i remember reading one of your posts where you mentioned a lot of big players place orders at around 2 PM ET. Could you please point me to that post?

My apologies if it was not you who posted that

Don't think it was me, sorry

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old July 7th, 2015, 01:23 PM   #1174 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,355 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting parallel curve shift yesterday given the size of the move.
In the last 10 years only been 1 move bigger that had a smaller move in mth 1 vs mth 13.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old July 7th, 2015, 01:38 PM   #1175 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,903 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Interesting table showing how much EIA has raised monthly US oil production forecasts and results.

US Production raised by 300,000 b/d per month for March 2015 to Dec 2015 from what it was forecast on May 12th.

https://twitter.com/DigStic/status/618456909163724803

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old July 7th, 2015, 05:50 PM   #1176 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
LONDON UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB XTRADER Jigsaw
Favorite Futures: CL YM BUND NQ
 
Posts: 60 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 20 given, 13 received

How did yall get on with your trading today?
I was looking for the bounce all day with tight stops and caught it but it was very tricky and the commissions ate into my profit.
Personally I didnt want to short today which in hindsight was "wrong" but I was just looking at how I couldve improved my trading today.

Any thoughts?
Cheers!

Reply With Quote
     

Old July 8th, 2015, 04:58 PM   #1177 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
LONDON UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IB XTRADER Jigsaw
Favorite Futures: CL YM BUND NQ
 
Posts: 60 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 20 given, 13 received

Today I expected selling given the premarket retest of lows and obviously The EIA gave a hint of bearishness

I made a good few ticks on the downside even though I felt I was cutting my winner short as I wanted a move to $50.50. It turned out the chop made it difficult to hold a trend down so I did well by taking what I got.

I tried some tight attempts at an EOD short and made and gave back 20 ticks on a few flat trades.
I didnt have the flexibility to try it long when it got over .90 on the close but the bullishness was a surprise to me.

So good day for me today even though I feel it was a tough one.
How did yall get on?

Reply With Quote
     

Old July 8th, 2015, 05:36 PM   #1178 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,355 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


xylem View Post
How did yall get on?

Surprisingly the last few days have had little to no effect for me at all. There's been some short-lived curve flexing at times that have been nice but in the big picture the spreads have been surprisingly stable or correlated given the magnitude of the move.

Reply With Quote
     

Old July 16th, 2015, 12:18 PM   #1179 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,903 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Quoting 
Iran should have the potential to raise production and exports by between 800,000 and 1 million bpd within six to 12 months of sanctions being lifted.

COLUMN-Iran's possible oil production response post-sanctions: Kemp | Reuters

This has to be bearish long term.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old July 17th, 2015, 11:23 AM   #1180 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,583 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,393 given, 2,355 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


I would strongly agree but one of the things that I think makes CL so difficult to trade, is estimating how much of any piece of information is already priced in.

As you know I trade spreads not outrights. As i mentioned previously when crude plunged $5 nine days ago, the curve moved in a lot more parallel fashion than I would have expected. Surprisingly (at least to me) the curve has maintained that shape. The chart below shows a scatter plot of CL_02 (ie 2nd month) vs the CL-02/CL-14 spread (ie 2nd v 14th currently CLU5/CLU6). I used 2nd month rather than prompt to get out some of the severe fundamental and expiry price moves. As you can see versus the rest of this year, the last 9 days have had spread values $2 higher than previously observed. (Red cross is July 16th, the cluster of points around/slightly to the right, is July 6th-15th).

Of course thinking about the Iranian supply situation, this could be explained by the expectation of longer dated prices being effected more than short term prices.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:28 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-05 in 0.13 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.205.140.252