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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started: by tturner86 Views / Replies:136,588 / 1,832
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1151 (permalink)
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Reuters
Saudi Arabia ready to raise oil output further to meet demand

Saudi Arabia is ready to increase its oil output in the coming months to a new record to meet a rise in global demand, despite increased domestic use, a senior state oil company official said on Thursday.

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  #1152 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
Yes, that's right. Imports down, inputs up, draw in stocks. The question is what happens when demand dries up (e.g. seasonally).

I was wondering the same thing, but demand/refinery runs don't normally peak for about 3 more weeks and last year actually remained at these levels through mid-september.


Alphachase View Post
Cush will be running out of capacity at some point in the future. I think that is where fun starts.

I think that was a fear a few months back, which is why we had such steep contango, but would think that looks less likely now, at least until Q4.

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  #1153 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I was wondering the same thing, but demand/refinery runs don't normally peak for about 3 more weeks and last year actually remained at these levels through mid-september.

Demand is certainly higher this year, but if prices spike it can easily give up.


SMCJB View Post
I think that was a fear a few months back, which is why we had such steep contango, but would think that looks less likely now, at least until Q4.

It wasn't my concern that time b/c of upcoming driving season but now I'm thinking about Sep or Oct as an overflow point. If current prices hold or go higher, production shouldn't drop.

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  #1154 (permalink)
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If you use Twitter then follow John Kemp on Twitter. Excellent fundamental info.

https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

Or just keep going to this link if you don't Twitter.

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  #1155 (permalink)
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  #1156 (permalink)
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Meanwhile it looks like we got a build in Cush stocks again.

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  #1157 (permalink)
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From the chatbox...

@tturner86 : I would think a storm in the gulf would cause CL to raise, but hey what do I know...

Couple of things
i) I think this was a little bit of a storm that never was. I saw Shell evacuated non-essential personnel but I suspect off shore production was barely effected. (On a side note being in Houston, schools, business's all announced yday that they would be shutting today, and then today we barely even got any rain never mind winds.)
ii) With the Shale boom (all onshore), offshore production is far less significant than it used to be
iii) While storms/canes in the Gulf used to be very bullish I believe that they are now often viewed as bearish as the last several big storms we have had all destroyed more demand than they did production.

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  #1158 (permalink)
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Something I just posted in the Why you should add to winners and never add to losers thread that is probably more relevant here...


SMCJB View Post
To put this in perspective below are two slides from a presentation I gave a few months back.
CL01 refers to the prompt month for outrights, and to the CL01-CL02 spread for spreads and to the CL01-CL02-CL03 Butterfly for Butterflys.
Other than that I think they are self explanatory.
Remember that vol scales proportionally to the square root of time. So if the 1 day standard deviation of CL01 price change is $1.37 we would expect the 1 month/20 Day standard deviation to be $1.37 * SQRT(20) = $6.12. On the other hand we would expect the 1 Month standard deviation of the CL10-11-12 Butterfly to be $0.05!
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  #1159 (permalink)
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Inventories

Just curious if anyone has statistics on Crude price direction from the NY Open vs Inventory release (ie crude opened @xx.xx went higher and upon inventories reversed down to xx.xx) or percent trend continuation vs reversal

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Hello @SMCJB

i remember reading one of your posts where you mentioned a lot of big players place orders at around 2 PM ET. Could you please point me to that post?

My apologies if it was not you who posted that

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