The CL Crude-analysis Thread - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:178,291 / 2,076
Created: by tturner86 Attachments:534

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 534  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1151 (permalink)
Elite Member
Colorado
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker/Data: IB & Iqfeed
Favorite Futures: ES , CL
 
sptrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 525 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 1,078 given, 663 received

Reuters
Saudi Arabia ready to raise oil output further to meet demand

Saudi Arabia is ready to increase its oil output in the coming months to a new record to meet a rise in global demand, despite increased domestic use, a senior state oil company official said on Thursday.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to sptrader for this post:
 
  #1152 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,077 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,722 given, 3,278 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Alphachase View Post
Yes, that's right. Imports down, inputs up, draw in stocks. The question is what happens when demand dries up (e.g. seasonally).

I was wondering the same thing, but demand/refinery runs don't normally peak for about 3 more weeks and last year actually remained at these levels through mid-september.


Alphachase View Post
Cush will be running out of capacity at some point in the future. I think that is where fun starts.

I think that was a fear a few months back, which is why we had such steep contango, but would think that looks less likely now, at least until Q4.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1153 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 104 received



SMCJB View Post
I was wondering the same thing, but demand/refinery runs don't normally peak for about 3 more weeks and last year actually remained at these levels through mid-september.

Demand is certainly higher this year, but if prices spike it can easily give up.


SMCJB View Post
I think that was a fear a few months back, which is why we had such steep contango, but would think that looks less likely now, at least until Q4.

It wasn't my concern that time b/c of upcoming driving season but now I'm thinking about Sep or Oct as an overflow point. If current prices hold or go higher, production shouldn't drop.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1154 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,717 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 792 given, 4,759 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

If you use Twitter then follow John Kemp on Twitter. Excellent fundamental info.

https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

Or just keep going to this link if you don't Twitter.

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #1155 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,077 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,722 given, 3,278 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Bloomberg:- The World Is Facing Its Longest Oil Glut in at Least Three Decades

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


The World Is Facing Its Longest Oil Glut in at Least Three Decades - Bloomberg Business

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #1156 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 104 received

Meanwhile it looks like we got a build in Cush stocks again.

Reply With Quote
 
  #1157 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,077 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,722 given, 3,278 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

From the chatbox...

@tturner86 : I would think a storm in the gulf would cause CL to raise, but hey what do I know...

Couple of things
i) I think this was a little bit of a storm that never was. I saw Shell evacuated non-essential personnel but I suspect off shore production was barely effected. (On a side note being in Houston, schools, business's all announced yday that they would be shutting today, and then today we barely even got any rain never mind winds.)
ii) With the Shale boom (all onshore), offshore production is far less significant than it used to be
iii) While storms/canes in the Gulf used to be very bullish I believe that they are now often viewed as bearish as the last several big storms we have had all destroyed more demand than they did production.

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #1158 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,077 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,722 given, 3,278 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Something I just posted in the Why you should add to winners and never add to losers thread that is probably more relevant here...


SMCJB View Post
To put this in perspective below are two slides from a presentation I gave a few months back.
CL01 refers to the prompt month for outrights, and to the CL01-CL02 spread for spreads and to the CL01-CL02-CL03 Butterfly for Butterflys.
Other than that I think they are self explanatory.
Remember that vol scales proportionally to the square root of time. So if the 1 day standard deviation of CL01 price change is $1.37 we would expect the 1 month/20 Day standard deviation to be $1.37 * SQRT(20) = $6.12. On the other hand we would expect the 1 Month standard deviation of the CL10-11-12 Butterfly to be $0.05!
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #1159 (permalink)
Capt. Johnny Jameson
Fort Lauderdale
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Devil Man's Avatar
 
Posts: 624 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 1,823 given, 852 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Inventories

Just curious if anyone has statistics on Crude price direction from the NY Open vs Inventory release (ie crude opened @xx.xx went higher and upon inventories reversed down to xx.xx) or percent trend continuation vs reversal

Reply With Quote
 
  #1160 (permalink)
Always Learning
Tampa, FL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Ninja/ Continuum
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 24 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 61 given, 17 received


Hello @SMCJB

i remember reading one of your posts where you mentioned a lot of big players place orders at around 2 PM ET. Could you please point me to that post?

My apologies if it was not you who posted that

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Dec 7

Linda Bradford Raschke: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:09 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-11-17 in 0.11 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.80.227.189