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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,376 / 1,754
Last Reply:9 Hours Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old June 9th, 2015, 05:11 PM   #1131 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Reuters headline, EIA lowers 2016 U.S. oil production forecast, is wrong.

EIA didn't lower its' 2016 forecast. It raised it. It just made 2015 160k bpd higher than 2016.

The new forecast is 9.43 for 2015 and 9.27 for 2016. That's the 160K difference. Not a 160k lower forecast.

Exactly.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/compare.pdf

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:13 PM   #1132 (permalink)
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The young person has rewritten the article and corrected the mistakes.

UPDATE 2-U.S. sees longer oil output decline into early 2016

UPDATE 2-U.S. sees longer oil output decline into early 2016 | Reuters

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:16 PM   #1133 (permalink)
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I don't understand why to read Reuters if everything is available in the STEO?

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:24 PM   #1134 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
I don't understand why to read Reuters if everything is available in the STEO?

Because that is what many lazy traders are using for their news. You have to know what other traders are thinking.

Or should I say computer bots read headlines and make trading decisions on possible faulty headlines.

I bought puts before report and got out at 1 cent profit when market didn't move. Watch CL be down by end of week. But since I am not positive, I am not risking slight profit for 50-50 chance of making more or losing money.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:33 PM   #1135 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Well said about lazy traders LOL

"Smart" Algos don't use Reuters feeds AFAIK...

Meanwhile large draw in APIs gestimates (seems to be)

Upd. 6.7M draw, it's huge comparing to anything over last few month


Last edited by Alphachase; June 9th, 2015 at 05:48 PM.
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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:43 PM   #1136 (permalink)
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I don't know why market trades off of API number. The correlation between API and EIA is poor.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:48 PM   #1137 (permalink)
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I don't know why market trades off of API number. The correlation between API and EIA is poor.

Right, except Cush #. Over past 2 years API was very close to EIA on Cush.
Market trades because there is good liquidity on one of the sides. It's an ultra short-term trading.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 05:49 PM   #1138 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
The young person has rewritten the article and corrected the mistakes.

UPDATE 2-U.S. sees longer oil output decline into early 2016

UPDATE 2-U.S. sees longer oil output decline into early 2016 | Reuters

Amazing. That' sort of a large headline to get wrong.
Thanks @ron99

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Old June 9th, 2015, 06:01 PM   #1139 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
I don't understand why to read Reuters if everything is available in the STEO?


ron99 View Post
Because that is what many lazy traders are using for their news. You have to know what other traders are thinking.

Because back in the days, when trading floors were dominated by big cathode ray tube televisions hanging from the ceilings in huge metal brackets, Reuters was pretty much the only game in town. As far back as the 1990's Reuter's had an electronic FX dealing system. Old legacies die hard.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 06:02 PM   #1140 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
Right, except Cush #. Over past 2 years APIs was very close to EIA on Cush.
Market trades because there is good liquidity on one of the sides. It's an ultra short-term trading.

Correct on Cushing. Good correlation.

Good thing I took my penny profit because now I would be losing 10 cents each.

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