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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:126,089 / 1,755
Last Reply:17 Hours Ago (02:44 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old June 8th, 2015, 02:20 PM   #1121 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Andrew Weismann of EBA analytics says that on Tuesday June 9, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) – the branch of Department of Energy responsible for providing energy statistics – is likely to significantly increase its estimate of U.S. crude oil production for 2015 and 2016. Weisman says that while the magnitude of this increase is not yet known, an increase of 150,000 –200,000 barrels a day is possible. The International Energy Agency is likely to announce similar increases later in the week.

You can sign up for a free version of Andrew Weismann's report at http://user.ebwmarketpro.com/report/oil
In my experience Wesimann's stuff is pretty good although I have not read this report.

DOE Likely to Significantly Increase U.S. Crude Oil Production Estimates Tuesday

On Tuesday June 9th, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) – the branch of DOE responsible for providing energy statistics – is likely to significantly increase its estimate of U.S. crude oil production for 2015 and 2016.

While the magnitude of this increase is not yet known, an increase of 150,000–200,000 barrels/day is possible. The International Energy Agency is likely to announce similar increases later in the week.

These revisions directly contradict EIA’s earlier view that production in major U.S. tight oil plays would decline rapidly in May, with the potential to drop by as much as 400,000 barrels/day by September. Instead, estimated May production could be raised to as much as 9.5–9.6 million barrels/day, surpassing the previous all-time record.

This shift, coming on the heels of OPEC’s decision on Friday not to curb output, could significantly affect oil prices.

To get the entire analysis free, please click here.

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Old June 8th, 2015, 02:51 PM   #1122 (permalink)
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Thanks SMCJB. That is an excellent report. I'm afraid to find out how much they want to subscribe.

I didn't know 300,000 b/d were shutdown in Canada due to wildfires.

He makes the point that this fall when gasoline demand decreases and the shutdown oil in Canada comes back online that inventory will greatly increase.

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Old June 8th, 2015, 08:44 PM   #1123 (permalink)
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update


just posting what I see, I could only look at things like I said for a half an hour early, price was still holding under 59.00 so I went short @ 58.70. Practicing my position trading rather than scalping I stay short with a stop @ 59.25 ( my max I could stand to loose, and if price hits up there I know I'm probably wrong and buyers will probably grab it) So I sit short until I see price start holding from going down. For now lows keep being made. I'll check it again tomorrow morning....enjoy

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Old June 9th, 2015, 01:11 PM   #1124 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
This matches the sudden jump in weekly US oil production to 9.6 mil from 9.3-9.4 two weeks ago. Kinda explains the sudden jump.

Here's a link to tomorrow's Short-Term Energy Outlook report. It comes out between 12:00-12:15 pm ET.
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Report is out. EIA raised 2015 oil production from 9.2 mil to 9.4 mil. Said May is 9.6 mil.


Quoting 
Total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.6 million b/d in May, but it is
expected to generally decline from June 2015 through early 2016 before growth resumes.
Projected U.S. crude oil production averages 9.4 million b/d in 2015 and 9.3 million b/d in
2016. The forecast is 0.2 million b/d and 0.1 million b/d higher for 2015 and 2016,
respectively, than in last month's STEO, primarily because of revisions to actual production
data from the first quarter of 2015.

Futures haven't moved yet.


Quoting 
Global liquids production continues to exceed consumption, resulting in inventory builds. Global
oil inventory builds are projected to average 2.2 million b/d through the first half of 2015 and
average 1.6 million b/d during the second half of the year, with the reduction in builds reflecting
rising demand and slowing production growth outside of the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC), particularly in the United States. The expected inventory builds in
2015 are on top of an estimated average 1.1 million b/d increase in 2014.



Last edited by ron99; June 9th, 2015 at 01:17 PM.
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Old June 9th, 2015, 02:45 PM   #1125 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
OK I'm confused.

Yesterday's Drilling Report showed a projected drop in shale production and CL is up big.

Today's more important total US oil production forecast is increased and showed that May was the highest in decades and the market is up since report.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 02:59 PM   #1126 (permalink)
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I believe there is no "black and white" in short-term price action. People are currently awaiting fresh draw in Cush (in today's APIs and EIA report tomorrow). And also some fat but weak short stops yet to be harvested

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Old June 9th, 2015, 03:42 PM   #1127 (permalink)
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Recommended sources of new information for crude oil

Can anyone recommend websites or other information on oil news? I have really only been looking at the weekly inventory reports but I am a novice in this market (or any other market for that matter).

Thanks for your help in advance.

Ned

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Old June 9th, 2015, 04:10 PM   #1128 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Report is out. EIA raised 2015 oil production from 9.2 mil to 9.4 mil. Said May is 9.6 mil.

Quoting 
Total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.6 million b/d in May, but it is
expected to generally decline from June 2015 through early 2016 before growth resumes.
Projected U.S. crude oil production averages 9.4 million b/d in 2015 and 9.3 million b/d in
2016. The forecast is 0.2 million b/d and 0.1 million b/d higher for 2015 and 2016,
respectively, than in last month's STEO, primarily because of revisions to actual production
data from the first quarter of 2015.

Futures haven't moved yet.

Reuters say 2016 is now lower not higher

Reuters: EIA lowers 2016 U.S. oil production forecast
(Reuters) - The U.S. government lowered its 2016 U.S. oil production forecast on Tuesday, as it expects output declines to start in the second half of this year through early 2016 before it resumes.

The forecast saw production falling in 2016 overall, compared with the increase for next year foreseen in the EIA outlook last month, as the oil industry reels from the worst rout in oil prices since the financial crisis.

In its short-term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2015 U.S. crude oil production growth forecast to 720,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 530,000 bpd, but lowered its 2016 U.S. production by 160,000 bpd vs a 20,000 bpd growth previously.

Meanwhile, it raised its 2015 U.S. oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd vs 340,000 bpd seen last month, and left unchanged its 2016 demand growth forecast to 70,000 bpd.

UPDATE 1-EIA lowers 2016 U.S. oil production forecast | Reuters

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Old June 9th, 2015, 04:22 PM   #1129 (permalink)
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Nedster View Post
Can anyone recommend websites or other information on oil news? I have really only been looking at the weekly inventory reports but I am a novice in this market (or any other market for that matter).

Thanks for your help in advance.

Ned

Below are FREE sources of oil fundamentals and news:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
IEA - International Energy Agency - affordable clean energy for all | iea.org
OPEC : Home
Oil report News Headlines for Today | Reuters

IEA Monthly report should be out this Friday and Highlights of this report are available for free at the moment of release
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

But the best sources of news and fundamentals are certain subscriptions that are way too expensive for retail traders.

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Old June 9th, 2015, 04:43 PM   #1130 (permalink)
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Reuters headline, EIA lowers 2016 U.S. oil production forecast, is wrong.

EIA didn't lower its' 2016 forecast. It raised it. It just made 2015 160k bpd higher than 2016.

The new forecast is 9.43 for 2015 and 9.27 for 2016. That's the 160K difference. Not a 160k lower forecast.

Reuters is wanting a new oil reporter. I'm serious. After this flub I can see why.
https://toc.taleo.net/careersection/2/jobdetail.ftl?lang=en&job=JREQ043784


Last edited by ron99; June 9th, 2015 at 04:57 PM.
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