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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,908 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old May 28th, 2015, 12:33 PM   #1101 (permalink)
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purveyor View Post
API data suggested a surplus of 1.2 million barrels.

Looks like the delayed shipments have finally reached the port.

EIA says decrease of 2.8 mil. Imports were down from last week.

API data doesn't correlate well with the EIA data because it is voluntary. Be careful trading off of the API number.

The big surprise is the huge jump in US oil production. Up 3.3% over last week. 9.566 vs 9.262. That is a huge jump in one week. I wonder why.

Gasoline product supplied (week before Memorial Day) was the highest since 8/15/2008.

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Gasoline production also high.

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So huge oil and gasoline production and huge gasoline demand.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 01:15 PM   #1102 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
The big surprise is the huge jump in US oil production. Up 3.3% over last week. 9.566 vs 9.262. That is a huge jump in one week. I wonder why.

In NG I believe the production numbers are just EIA estimates. They don't publish the actuals until several months later and they are often quite different. Assume this is the same with CL but could be wrong. If so production becomes 'the fudge factor'.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 01:17 PM   #1103 (permalink)
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Just want to say that I have started checking back in on this thread and the analysis you guys are doing is great, keep up the goodwork!

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Old May 28th, 2015, 01:25 PM   #1104 (permalink)
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CL strategy

Was down $800 this morning after chasing market on big news day. Back up to where I started by following simple strategy: Buy above/Sell below 50SMA - this serves as entry point. exit point established by observing change in direction of MomentumSMA (14). Was looking for a forum on strategies to post this in order to get some feedback, couldn't find any.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 07:37 PM   #1105 (permalink)
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M1kel618 View Post
Was down $800 this morning after chasing market on big news day. Back up to where I started by following simple strategy: Buy above/Sell below 50SMA - this serves as entry point. exit point established by observing change in direction of MomentumSMA (14). Was looking for a forum on strategies to post this in order to get some feedback, couldn't find any.

Yikes ! , Unless you have some solid statistics behind your ''strategy'' i would definitely add some discretionary criteria or just focus on objective analysis. Some questions to ask yourself is

Are we moving away or towards a major POC or LVN.
Are we moving away or towards the pit session VWAP.
Are we moving away or towards the Globex open.
Are we moving away or towards the Sunday open.
Did we break threw the overnight high/low or the 60 minute opening range or are we rotating back and forth
Are we running into a major channel or trend line

PS. You should probably start your own thread or journal if you want help fine tuning your specific strategy, but when your ready to make a crude trade feel free posting it here before hand and some people can give you advice.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 11:17 PM   #1106 (permalink)
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"Crude" strategy

I said I was chasing market, had really been trying to follow a fellow in a trading room Ace Trades, loud, obnoxious, but I kept getting stopped out or missing entries, then frantically chasing markets trying to make up for missing trades, hence the -$800. Thanks for the advice though!

Waiting to get 10 days of trading in a row with at least 10 ticks of successful trading before going live. So far my best is 3 days. Today was 3rd day (again). Tomorrow will be a red letter day if I can keep an open mind and follow my simple rules. Not familiar with POC/LVN/VWAP - do you need Level II data to determine these?

Set new low for the month this morning then highly volatile from 10-12 after trading room closed. I keep thinking that perhaps CL is not the instrument for me, but between CL-ES-GC, my best profits are always with CL, biggest losses are GC and then ES. I am keeping a journal, but would be a good idea to track wins/losses by index and day of week, am/pm to identify peak performance trends of my own behavior.


Last edited by M1kel618; May 28th, 2015 at 11:20 PM. Reason: typo
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Old May 28th, 2015, 11:54 PM   #1107 (permalink)
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One more post and I can post image

My "Crude" strategy. Basically I enter short/long position as price opens below/above 50SMA. Then watch for price to peak low/high and get verification of change in direction from short to long or vice versa by watching the 14 MomentumSMA.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 11:55 PM   #1108 (permalink)
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Image of CL Chart showing entry/exit May 28, 2015

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Last edited by M1kel618; May 28th, 2015 at 11:58 PM. Reason: trouble loading image
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Old May 30th, 2015, 02:14 PM   #1109 (permalink)
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POC/LVN/VWAP are market profile / volume profile concepts. I believe Tradestation has those tools, its not level 2. It still may be a slightly more expensive package. Like it is for Sierra Chart. I don't know for Tradestation.

It really helps giving context to the market. Since the market is simply just a continuous auction. In this business you need to make contrarian decisions. There are no short cuts or secret sauce moving averages or indicators. Its really about putting in your 10,000 hours. I bet the room operator in Ace trades put in his hours in understanding market context so that's how he is able to post successful trades that he takes. He already developed that ''Gut feeling'' for when the market conditions are favourable to enter.

You as a individual have your own personality your own positive and negative traits that make you who you are. The amazing thing about the market is that once you start putting in serious hours the market will tell you who you are, Its almost like a enlightening spiritual experience. You will learn more about your self then you ever understood before. After you figure your self out , that is when you will find consistent success and your niche in the market.

To figure yourself out try as many systems that you can, The theory behind that is you may find another person with similar personality traits that you have and you'll start understanding what your comfortable with. Then make it your own with all the little bits of knowledge you gathered on the way, But always keep context and those levels I mentioned in mind.

I think CL is a great instrument and there is good enough volume to make a living from that product alone.(Especially for scalping) We as traders need to go where the volume is.

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Old May 30th, 2015, 11:46 PM   #1110 (permalink)
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Haven't updated this in several months.
Same scaling as previous charts, $5/bbl vs 2c/EUR
Charts show close of CL and 6E

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