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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,360 / 1,754
Last Reply:7 Hours Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old May 14th, 2015, 01:27 PM   #1091 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
I think that's a function of refinery maintenance that normally happens in Mar/Apr/early May.
This year maintenance has been lower than normal though, as illustrated by the unseasonably high refinery runs numbers.
As such I'm not sure we'll see as large a drop in stocks due to increased runs - runs are already at or close to their peak - over the last 4 weeks runs are approx 250,000 bbl/day higher than last year, and only approx 300,000 bbl/day below historic highs which were set last Jul & Aug.

FundamentalAnalytics.com have a great chart showing this but unfortunately the one on their website is 6 weeks out of date.
http://www.fundamentalanalytics.com/petroleum/charts/crude-runs-smoothed.jpg
If you keep this year (black) 250-300k higher than last year (red) you'll get the picture of where we are though.

Here are up to date charts

Weekly data
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4 week rolling average data
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Looks like 2010 and 2014 the increased input started a month early, like this year. Then they leveled off until July. I suspect this year will be the same.


Last edited by ron99; May 14th, 2015 at 01:34 PM.
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Old May 15th, 2015, 02:06 PM   #1092 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -6 to 888 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 6 rigs from last week to 888, with oil rigs down 8 to 660, gas rigs up 2 to 223, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5.

U.S. Rig Count is down 973 rigs from last year at 1861, with oil rigs down 871, gas rigs down 103, and miscellaneous rigs up 1.


The U.S. Offshore rig count is 34, unchanged from last week, and down 23 rigs year over year.

Also available on their website.

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Old May 21st, 2015, 03:46 PM   #1093 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Price rigging allegations surfaced in the $3.4 trillion global crude oil market last week, with the European Commission saying May 14 that it’s investigating Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc and Statoil ASA, three of Europe’s biggest oil explorers, and Platts, owned by McGraw Hill Financial Inc.

This was in middle of an article about other things.


Quoting 
2. During the Class Period, Defendants monopolized the Brent Crude Oil market and entered into unlawful combinations, agreements, and conspiracies to fix and restrain trade in, and intentionally manipulate Brent Crude Oil prices and the prices of Brent Crude Oil futures and derivative contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (“NYMEX”) and the Intercontinental Exchange (“ICE”) in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act, as amended 7 U.S.C. § 1, et seq. (the “CEA”), the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1 and 2, and common law.

http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2015/04/29/76548/

Gotta love the website that looks like Shell's but isn't.


Last edited by ron99; May 21st, 2015 at 03:51 PM.
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Old May 22nd, 2015, 12:17 PM   #1094 (permalink)
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It's a class action lawsuit (well not really read below)
The plaintiffs provide what they describe as “concrete evidence” within the Complaint of oil price manipulation.

Against most of the industry...
This action arises from manipulations of North Sea Brent Crude Oil Market (defined herein) by Defendants Shell International Trading and Shipping Company Limited (“STASCO”), Shell Trading US Company, BP pic (“BP”), BP America, Inc., BP Corporation North America Inc., Statoil ASA (“Statoil”), Statoil US Holdings Inc. (“Statoil US”), Morgan Stanley Capital Group, Inc. (“MSCGI”), Trafigura Beheer B.V., Trafigura AG, Phibro Trading LLC (“Phibro”), Phibro Commodities Limited, Vitol, S.A. (“Vitol”), Vitol, Inc., Hess Energy Trading Company, LLC (“HETCO”), Mercuria Energy Trading S.A., Mercuria Energy Trading, Inc., (collectively, “Defendants”) since at least 2002 through the present (the “Class Period”).


Bloomberg did a story on it about 6 months ago...
Brent Crude Traders Claim Proof BFOE Boys Rigged Market - Bloomberg Business
The traders who brought it -- who include a former director of the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, one of the markets where contracts for future Brent deliveries are traded - - allege they paid “artificial and anticompetitive prices” for Brent futures.
and later
Kovel represents plaintiffs Kevin McDonnell, a former Nymex director, as well as independent floor traders Anthony Insinga and Robert Michiels, and John Devivo, who held a seat on Nymex and traded for his own account.
ie its a bunch of ex-NYMEX locals suing big oil now that they can no longer make money on the floor. Call me a cynic (or anything else) but it's a bunch of ambulance chasers.
“It is not uncommon to see these types of private U.S. lawsuits filed following investigations by governmental agencies,” Morten Eek, a Statoil spokesman, said in an e-mail. “We do not want to make further comments.”
and
Lawyers who write class-action complaints often rely on “information and belief,” legal jargon that loosely translates into allegations that don’t necessarily come with hard evidence. In such lawsuits, as with most filed in federal courts in the U.S., plaintiffs must allege sufficient facts that, if believed, would give them a plausible claim.
In this lawsuit, the plaintiffs say it is their own, expert analysis that provides proof that the fix was in.
The discussion about BFOE & Dated Brent gives an insight to the real Brent market. Physical Brent trades are indexed to 'Dated Brent" and not to futures prices. "Datad Brent" is in turn set by physical trades of Brent. Forties, Oseberg & Ekofisk, four North Sea Crudes with steeply declining production curves. It used to be set purely by Brent trades, but there are now so few Brent trades. These are very opaque markets involving very few participants.

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Old May 23rd, 2015, 02:46 PM   #1095 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
oil seems to be in pressure near sixty

whats a smart trade

buy 58 sell 61?

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Old May 25th, 2015, 06:56 PM   #1096 (permalink)
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Hi @ron99,

Where do you derive your charts and data from? I have been looking to compile some fundamental data. Is this all plotted by yourself on excel using figures from CME etc or is it easily available online?

Cheers,

Awls

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Old May 25th, 2015, 10:11 PM   #1097 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
Hi @ron99,

Where do you derive your charts and data from? I have been looking to compile some fundamental data. Is this all plotted by yourself on excel using figures from CME etc or is it easily available online?

Cheers,

Awls

My own charts using government data. EIA is one place.

CME for pricing.

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Old May 27th, 2015, 12:28 PM   #1098 (permalink)
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Bloomberg: Iraq About to Flood Oil Market in New Front of OPEC Price War
If shipping schedules are correct, a tidal wave of oil is coming.


Iraq About to Flood Oil Market in New Front of OPEC Price War - Bloomberg Business

... The additional Iraqi oil is equal to about 800,000 barrels a day ...

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Old May 27th, 2015, 10:02 PM   #1099 (permalink)
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API data suggested a surplus of 1.2 million barrels.

Looks like the delayed shipments have finally reached the port.

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Old May 28th, 2015, 10:08 AM   #1100 (permalink)
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Quoting 
The fires have forced energy companies operating in Alberta, the largest source of U.S. oil imports, to shut in 233,000 barrels per day of production, or roughly 10 percent of total oil sands output.

Canada wildfires rage on, intensify near oil sands sites | Reuters

Lower imports?

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