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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,915 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old January 19th, 2015, 09:59 AM   #101 (permalink)
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@tigertrader

I'm content with 30 - 40 - 50 -100 ticks

Day in, day out

-Bill_M

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Old January 19th, 2015, 11:14 AM   #102 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
@tigertrader

I'm content with 30 - 40 - 50 -100 ticks

Day in, day out

-Bill_M

you're missing the point, bill

how long have you been trading?

not only do markets revert to the mean , so do p&ls

there's going to come a time when volatility reverts to the mean; and, crude becomes mired in a trading range,
and you won't be able to make 30-100 tics day-in-day-out, and then you're going to be wishing you took greater advantage of today's markets

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Old January 20th, 2015, 02:20 PM   #103 (permalink)
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And it starts: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baker-hughes-lay-off-7-152115411.html cheaper gas doesn't help if you don't have a job!

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Old January 20th, 2015, 07:35 PM   #104 (permalink)
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Colossal Oil Tankers Storing Contango Price Rebound - Business Insider

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Old January 20th, 2015, 10:22 PM   #105 (permalink)
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I'm not saying this isn't happening at all because it obviously is happening. but it's not happening as much as the media are portraying it as happening.

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Aframax while they do primarily carry crude and fuel oil, they tend to not be long distance shiips and are not that large at approx 750,000 bbls.
Suezmax are the largest tanker that can fit through the Suez canal and significantly large at approx 1,500,000 bbls but rarely if ever used as storage.
VLCC's are the real crude workhorses at approximately 2,000,000 bbls.
ULCC's are the giants of the oceans at over 3,000,000 bbls. They are more and more used as floating storage rather than as transport ships. TI Europe (in @tturner86 pictures) is a ULCC.

It should be mentioned that VLCCs and ULCCs are so large that there are very few ports (and none in the US) that are deep enough to dock one. In the US VLCCs either discharge at the LOOP offshore platform or are lightered using smaller ships (normally 500kb)

TANGENT As a tangent BBC News did a story last week on the world's largest container ship, the Globe. I found the video half way down the page gave an excellent perspective on how big these ships are. It should be noted that while container ships sit 'above' the water, VLCC's & ULCC's sit below the water. They are a lot deeper than tall.

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Old January 20th, 2015, 10:51 PM   #106 (permalink)
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Best Leveraged crude oil play??

As entirely a newbie to futures. If anyone can help me with this.

If I have a price projection for crude to reach 28 in exactly 2 months from now, March 20th.

The simplest way I know how to play that would be to buy a 1x bear crude ETF (DNO or SZO) with a cash account with no margin. The next step up would be to make the same trade on margin.

With limited experience at this, any recommendations as to making the most profitable trade possible using leverage.
Please, if recommending options, state the expiration date and which price options or if recommending futures, please be very specific.

I would like to understand the strategy behind this.

Thank you

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Old January 20th, 2015, 11:05 PM   #107 (permalink)
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I'm not saying this isn't happening at all because it obviously is happening. but it's not happening as much as the media are portraying it as happening.

I agree, plus it would take a lot of capital to hold crude like that for an extended time.

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Old January 21st, 2015, 01:05 AM   #108 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
I agree, plus it would take a lot of capital to hold crude like that for an extended time.

Capital is free. In fact in certain countries (think Switzerland) interest rates are negative. I think if you check, the company mentioned using ULCC's in the business week story you mentioned is based in... Switzerland! Funny how that works. In reality it's obviously not that simple but don't be surprised if the next article you see claims the swiss goverment is financing oil storage tankers!

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Old January 21st, 2015, 01:50 AM   #109 (permalink)
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This is mine from today

1 trade 7 contracts target the low. Added 1 more after the small pull back. In the past I traded a lot during the day, now I trade maybe three times a week. I wait for this setup. Lot's of momentum pull back to the 34EMA. Gives a great risk to reward ratio.

I take these pictures as the trade develops, because I want to remember just how close I came to being stopped out. Just how hard it was to hold through it, and what it did after the small little pull backs. I want to recall how it acted, how it came back in my face. That stuff can be very difficult to cope with if your not expecting it. It's great when it just runs away from you, but you just cant bail cause it backs up on you, you cant make any money like that!

Little yellow dot is exit. Yes it was perfect. But this is what I do, if it gets to the low or high and "stalls" even for a second or two, I'm just out. I do miss big runs sometimes, but most of the time if it's going to go through and keep going you should see that happen and a candle close below the low/high and another candle close below that one. If it doesn't do that, I'm just out.

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Old January 21st, 2015, 04:54 AM   #110 (permalink)
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Last edited by WilleeMac; January 21st, 2015 at 07:36 AM. Reason: sp, clarify
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