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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1081 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ron99 View Post
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Just eye-balling that chart it looks like the correlation between "Managed Money" & "Price" is very high, except for the last $40 of this year's $60 puke.

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  #1082 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Just eye-balling that chart it looks like the correlation between "Managed Money" & "Price" is very high, except for the last $40 of this year's $60 puke.

Yep. Almost the same for every other major commodity.

Here's another chart of Managed Money expressed as their percent long of their total of longs and shorts (spread trades are not included in these charts). I like this one better.

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  #1083 (permalink)
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Here's the same chart with data from 2009 till now. The correlation between spec longs and prices is strong.

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  #1084 (permalink)
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CL 1min bar data

I need CL bar data on 1 min from IQfeed . Continuous contract for at least 4 years. Even better for the Globex session and not only for RTH.

Thanks for your help!!!

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  #1085 (permalink)
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Current prediction?
Quoting 
The OPEC report predicted that oil prices will be about $76 a barrel in 2025


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  #1086 (permalink)
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Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

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  #1087 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

It looks like a line going downward starting this week...

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  #1088 (permalink)
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CL pricing is not only about US drilling rigs and supply.


Quoting 
Despite a certain slowdown in U.S. oil output growth, global crude supply was up by a staggering 3.2 million bpd in April year-on-year, the IEA said.


Quoting 
"Bucking the global trend, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are all raising their rig count and expanding their drilling programs. Iraq and Libya, meanwhile, continue to raise production against all odds. And Iranian supplies hit their highest since July 2012," it said.

Oil glut worsens as OPEC market-share battle just beginning: IEA | Reuters

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  #1089 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

Oil demand last week was huge.
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Oil inventory the last 5 years has peaked mid May and dropped after that for several weeks.
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But price hasn't always gone up when inventories dropped. It's been a mixed bag in May and June.
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  #1090 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Oil inventory the last 5 years has peaked mid May and dropped after that for several weeks

I think that's a function of refinery maintenance that normally happens in Mar/Apr/early May.
This year maintenance has been lower than normal though, as illustrated by the unseasonably high refinery runs numbers.
As such I'm not sure we'll see as large a drop in stocks due to increased runs - runs are already at or close to their peak - over the last 4 weeks runs are approx 250,000 bbl/day higher than last year, and only approx 300,000 bbl/day below historic highs which were set last Jul & Aug.

FundamentalAnalytics.com have a great chart showing this but unfortunately the one on their website is 6 weeks out of date.
http://www.fundamentalanalytics.com/petroleum/charts/crude-runs-smoothed.jpg
If you keep this year (black) 250-300k higher than last year (red) you'll get the picture of where we are though.

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