The CL Crude-analysis Thread (Page 109) - Commodities Futures Trading | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading


The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,162 / 1,753
Last Reply:5 Hours Ago (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 450  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old May 9th, 2015, 11:04 AM   #1081 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,346 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ron99 View Post
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Just eye-balling that chart it looks like the correlation between "Managed Money" & "Price" is very high, except for the last $40 of this year's $60 puke.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old May 9th, 2015, 12:04 PM   #1082 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SMCJB View Post
Just eye-balling that chart it looks like the correlation between "Managed Money" & "Price" is very high, except for the last $40 of this year's $60 puke.

Yep. Almost the same for every other major commodity.

Here's another chart of Managed Money expressed as their percent long of their total of longs and shorts (spread trades are not included in these charts). I like this one better.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old May 9th, 2015, 12:27 PM   #1083 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Here's the same chart with data from 2009 till now. The correlation between spec longs and prices is strong.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old May 11th, 2015, 03:11 PM   #1084 (permalink)
Elite Member
granada
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: ninjatrader
 
Posts: 2 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

CL 1min bar data

I need CL bar data on 1 min from IQfeed . Continuous contract for at least 4 years. Even better for the Globex session and not only for RTH.

Thanks for your help!!!

Reply With Quote
     

Old May 12th, 2015, 02:16 PM   #1085 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Current prediction?
Quoting 
The OPEC report predicted that oil prices will be about $76 a barrel in 2025


Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old May 14th, 2015, 12:00 PM   #1086 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,346 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

Reply With Quote
     

Old May 14th, 2015, 12:10 PM   #1087 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: X_Trader Pro, TWS, CQG, Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers, Data: CQG, TTNEt
Favorite Futures: crude arbitrage, spreads, energy, grains
 
Posts: 191 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 28 given, 103 received


SMCJB View Post
Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

It looks like a line going downward starting this week...

Reply With Quote
     

Old May 14th, 2015, 12:10 PM   #1088 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

CL pricing is not only about US drilling rigs and supply.


Quoting 
Despite a certain slowdown in U.S. oil output growth, global crude supply was up by a staggering 3.2 million bpd in April year-on-year, the IEA said.


Quoting 
"Bucking the global trend, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are all raising their rig count and expanding their drilling programs. Iraq and Libya, meanwhile, continue to raise production against all odds. And Iranian supplies hit their highest since July 2012," it said.

Oil glut worsens as OPEC market-share battle just beginning: IEA | Reuters

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old May 14th, 2015, 12:23 PM   #1089 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,900 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SMCJB View Post
Another very low import number but runs still seasonally very very high.
Wonder what the maintenance schedule looks like going forward

Oil demand last week was huge.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Oil inventory the last 5 years has peaked mid May and dropped after that for several weeks.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


But price hasn't always gone up when inventories dropped. It's been a mixed bag in May and June.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     
The following 5 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old May 14th, 2015, 01:00 PM   #1090 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,346 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



ron99 View Post
Oil inventory the last 5 years has peaked mid May and dropped after that for several weeks

I think that's a function of refinery maintenance that normally happens in Mar/Apr/early May.
This year maintenance has been lower than normal though, as illustrated by the unseasonably high refinery runs numbers.
As such I'm not sure we'll see as large a drop in stocks due to increased runs - runs are already at or close to their peak - over the last 4 weeks runs are approx 250,000 bbl/day higher than last year, and only approx 300,000 bbl/day below historic highs which were set last Jul & Aug.

FundamentalAnalytics.com have a great chart showing this but unfortunately the one on their website is 6 weeks out of date.
http://www.fundamentalanalytics.com/petroleum/charts/crude-runs-smoothed.jpg
If you keep this year (black) 250-300k higher than last year (red) you'll get the picture of where we are though.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Commodities Futures Trading > The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC bobarian Commodities Futures Trading 1806 July 17th, 2015 03:39 AM
CL Crude-nalysis indextrader7 Commodities Futures Trading 227 November 5th, 2014 12:47 AM
Why crude oil (CL) trades mostly 1 contract? fyd49 Commodities Futures Trading 8 May 22nd, 2014 04:27 PM
Miscellaneous Statistical Analysis (the big thread) trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 29 July 15th, 2013 01:51 PM
Big move on crude analysis josh Commodities Futures Trading 4 March 11th, 2011 10:07 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:18 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-02 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.204.130.177