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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,388 / 1,754
Last Reply:11 Hours Ago (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 18th, 2015, 06:35 AM   #1031 (permalink)
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HD = Hidden Divergence

Momentum is putting in lower low, but the price is not.....a sign of strength to the upside.

There were several on the 5min chart as well today.

Please keep posting about your trades when you have time invaluable.

I don't trade CL so don't post plus it wouldn't be worth reading.

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Old April 18th, 2015, 07:40 AM   #1032 (permalink)
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Forecasting

I attach a document of ECB about how to forecasting Brent Crude Oil price, maybe it can be an interesting lecture also for CL, for who have the math skills.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1735.pdf

P.s. In this paper the authors say that Brent Crude Oil is currently considered to be the global oil pricing benchmark and is therefore monitored and forecasted by many central banks and international institutions.

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
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Last edited by LukeGeniol; April 18th, 2015 at 08:06 PM. Reason: P.s.
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Old April 18th, 2015, 09:27 AM   #1033 (permalink)
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regards ,oil is moved to the upper range ..zona 54 -64,, long game comes

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Old April 18th, 2015, 09:46 AM   #1034 (permalink)
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June contract


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regards ,oil is moved to the upper range ..zona 54 -64,, long game comes

I have already switched to june contract, yesterday there was more volume... and it's to 58 area.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_volume_voi.html

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Old April 18th, 2015, 06:15 PM   #1035 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
this is for the VP/MP guys. i have got conflicting answers on this subject which leads me to looking at multiple things and it can be confusing at times. i know the ON session should be respected, highs and lows and how it developed, but what is the 'norm' used in this space with regards to looking at a combined Globex/RTH vs separating Globex/RTH and all the thing MP/VP entails(VPOC, VAH/VAL, etc). what about the last part of the session from the pit close to the ETH close. should this be counted?

it makes perfect sense as to why someone would keep them separate for trading the indexes and such as those have to balance with the equities/options mkts. the crude doesnt carry this same attribute but on the other hand the majority of the volume takes place during the pit session even though it feels like it is more of a 'true' 24h mkt. i know the perfect answer is its all subjective and what works for you and what you can interpret from all scenarios, but i want to get a feel as to what the majority are doing.

i am going back through the ES thread as there is so much amazing info in this area that i have missed over the years and maybe even some of those guys like @Big Mike, @josh, @tigertrader can comment even though its not their primary mkt.

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Old April 18th, 2015, 08:11 PM   #1036 (permalink)
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................... it feels like it is more of a 'true' 24h mkt................

For CL I use only one 24h (to be precise 23.15h) session...

Take your Pips, go out and Live.
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Old April 18th, 2015, 09:50 PM   #1037 (permalink)
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Do you guys think oil has bottomed out?

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Old April 18th, 2015, 10:23 PM   #1038 (permalink)
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Do you guys think oil has bottomed out?

Hah, that is anyone's guess. It is very hard to see what oil will do in the long term. News from the middle east affects it strongly. There are many different suppliers with different overheads competing right now, and many of them have been hedged months ahead. I do suspect there is still not much upside, at least until we get some sort of supply interruption or a producer is forced out of the game. But please don't misconstrue that as my having any sort of long-term bias, or crystal ball - I don't. Something could happen Monday morning that would move it $30 either way. Now is not a time where I would touch oil beyond an intraday time frame.

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Old April 20th, 2015, 03:47 PM   #1039 (permalink)
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Futures Magazine:- Low prices curing low prices

Futures Magazine:- Low prices curing low prices

Crude oil prices rallied after China cut interest rates and U.S. rig counts continued to fall. This comes after hedge funds put on the biggest bull position in 8 months. more...
Low prices curing low prices | Futures Magazine

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Old April 20th, 2015, 04:08 PM   #1040 (permalink)
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I'm not seeing the big long by hedge funds. While Flynn is correct that if you subtract net shorts from net longs you get the highest number in 8 months,

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if you look at it on a percentage basis then they aren't very long right now. 76.7% now (bottom chart). Funds have on about 120,000 more positions now than 8 months ago.

Funds have on more shorts than any time since Sep 2010. But they have decreased from where they were 3 weeks ago.

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FYI I once talked to someone who worked a desk right across from Phil Flynn 15 years ago. He called Phil a clueless jerk. Said he was full of BS.

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