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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,289 / 1,753
Last Reply:Yesterday (02:57 PM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 10th, 2015, 02:53 PM   #1011 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
What is interesting, total change in puts OI for the front month was soaring all the week long while for calls it was quite stable or negative. See screenshots for the last 2 days.

I'm surprised they are adding new positions at sub 40 prices this close to expiration. <10 DTE.

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Old April 10th, 2015, 02:54 PM   #1012 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
I'm surprised they are adding new positions at sub 40 prices this close to expiration. <10 DTE.

Yes, exactly what I noticed too. Does it say us anything?

And opposite observations for M.

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Old April 13th, 2015, 05:04 AM   #1013 (permalink)
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Interesting piece from Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia's Plan to Extend the Age of Oil - Bloomberg Business

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Old April 13th, 2015, 11:06 AM   #1014 (permalink)
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Excuse the blatant self promotion but I think many of you will find some analysis I did and posted to another futures.io (formerly BMT) thread Why you should add to winners and never add to losers very interesting and potentially helpful to your trading. Got over a dozen likes already ... [/selfpromotion]

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Old April 14th, 2015, 05:20 PM   #1015 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
If someone missed it, here is EIA Drilling Productivity Report from yesterday
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)


and EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - Energy Information Administration

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Old April 14th, 2015, 05:48 PM   #1016 (permalink)
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"The U.S. rig count has historically troughed (about) 25 weeks after exploration and production companies decided to
lay down rigs (we are currently 13 weeks in)," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note, attempting to forecast
the timing of a likely revival of the oil-services industry in the U.S.

"This has proven true in all major energy downturns over the past 20 years in which U.S. oil and gas prices fell by over 40%. We see this consistent time frame driven by the amount of time it takes to (i) finish committed work and (ii) renegotiate service pricing."

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Old April 14th, 2015, 06:51 PM   #1017 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
"The U.S. rig count has historically troughed (about) 25 weeks after exploration and production companies decided to
lay down rigs (we are currently 13 weeks in)," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note, attempting to forecast
the timing of a likely revival of the oil-services industry in the U.S.

"This has proven true in all major energy downturns over the past 20 years in which U.S. oil and gas prices fell by over 40%. We see this consistent time frame driven by the amount of time it takes to (i) finish committed work and (ii) renegotiate service pricing."

This is a good piece. And it is right, except 1999 downturn when it took much longer (while production in 1998-1999 was falling).

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Old April 15th, 2015, 06:35 PM   #1018 (permalink)
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Morgan Stanley has reportedly been offered $1 billion for its oil-trading business

Read more: Castleton offers to buy Morgan Stanley oil - Business Insider

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Old April 15th, 2015, 06:45 PM   #1019 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Morgan Stanley has reportedly been offered $1 billion for its oil-trading business

Read more: Castleton offers to buy Morgan Stanley oil - Business Insider

Can't open the link.
Is that the same unit they were offered to buy by Russians last year?

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Old April 15th, 2015, 06:52 PM   #1020 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
Can't open the link.

That's wierd I can. It's actually a Financial Time story but I couldn't be bothered to register for the FT

Alphachase View Post
Is that the same unit they were offered to buy by Russians last year?

Yeap the one and only. That deal feel thru because of the Russia/Ukraine issues.

Morgan Stanley have an amazingly profitable commodities group and have had for decades.
They've been one of the biggest and best for a long time.

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