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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,848 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 8th, 2015, 08:10 PM   #991 (permalink)
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The main purpose of the market is to make fools of as many men as possible."

- Bernard Baruch

A quick trip down Memory Lane ( Courtesy of Hedgeye)


Back in October, people said there was a “price floor” because it was uneconomical for “high cost” U.S. Shale Producers to produce below $80/barrel...



In November, people said there was a price floor because OPEC was going to cut production...



Then in January, people said there was a price floor because oil rigs were being idled at a rapid pace...



The one thing clear now is that the world has learned a thing or two about oil production now that we are in the $50/barrel range:


1. U.S. shale production has become much more efficient and a breakeven cost of production for most is well below $80/barrel.
2 . Physical markets adjust to volatile financial markets on a lag (supply/demand):
a) Many producers hedge out the price of oil which eases some of the pain of shorter-term price movements
b) Producers are often tied into contracts that require them to keep delivering oil
c) Because the money to develop an oil field is spent upfront, many E&Ps will produce an incremental unit of product at an operating loss before cutting production cold turkey
3. OPEC’s main focus is to keep market share. Cutting production risks the possibility of end-user customers finding a new producer to source crude oil. Market share is key for keeping “swing producer” status. OPEC has already been consistently losing this share since its “oh-so-powerful” status during the 1970s embargo years when they had a 50%+ share in global markets.

4. Aggregate production levels can increase even with rigs coming offline at a rapid pace. Oil companies will sideline lower-producing rigs in more mature oil fields and produce more from their best rigs on the most lucrative acreage in tough times of low prices.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 8th, 2015 at 08:19 PM.
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Old April 8th, 2015, 09:23 PM   #992 (permalink)
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Old April 9th, 2015, 07:26 AM   #993 (permalink)
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Crude Oil Trading Group/Chat


Hello Guys,
I opened a free group/chat for mainly crude oil traders. More on here:
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Old April 9th, 2015, 07:49 AM   #994 (permalink)
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added to shorts 51.04 . Cover some 50.44 and stop loss on rest at 51.02. Every 30- 40 ticks bounce was a dead cat bounce and traders with upper hand loaded up on shorts on every opportunity they got. There were no longs all day worth taking with size. CL has a tendency to bounce some after evey 100 ticks move. Thinking about these bounces as a sign of buyers and getting long is not the way to win at this game.

CL failed to produce a daily and weekly C up as she has failed to do so for over 8 months. CL has not even produced a weekly A up.



Stopped out during Asian session. CL moved from 50.40 area to 51.82. Hum-- should i be looking for longs here or shorts here?
I am looking at 52 area for shorts and 50.50 area as long refrence points as a first step. So, no lngs for me at 52 area on first test after beating CL got yesterday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old April 9th, 2015, 08:12 AM   #995 (permalink)
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Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
50.40 as refrence point for long. All it means that my stop loss will be below that area for longs. So if i feel like going long at 51, stop loss will be below that area. This stop loss is too wide to try long. Thus, i will wait till it get as close to that area as much possible, otherwise no longs unless

1) Clear and massive buying shows up in an area ( i have no idea where it will be, if any) to take wide stop loss risk.

Is this based upon fundamental or technical analysis? It's always a combination of both. Sometimes fundamentals have an upper hand on a set up and sometimes technical analysis have an upper hand on a set up. Sometimes it's just SCREEN based experience.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

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Old April 9th, 2015, 09:33 AM   #996 (permalink)
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Stopped out during Asian session. CL moved from 50.40 area to 51.82. Hum-- should i be looking for longs here or shorts here?
I am looking at 52 area for shorts and 50.50 area as long refrence points as a first step. So, no lngs for me at 52 area on first test after beating CL got yesterday.

Short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 9th, 2015, 09:53 AM   #997 (permalink)
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Brightside

For Brightside. Thanks to your screen name, on my youtube search i came across a track named " Brightside". We need to have fun while trading.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 9th, 2015, 10:06 AM   #998 (permalink)
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Long 51 and out 51.42. This falls into SCREEN based experience category. At 51.80 indicators were showing buy, buy and at 50.90 sell, sell (lol). Algo's can ONLY push price so much, that's why i got out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 9th, 2015 at 10:26 AM.
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Old April 9th, 2015, 10:52 AM   #999 (permalink)
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Buyers at 5085 and sellers at 5135 -Flip Flop-charts later as always. Not too shabby 50 tick range.

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Old April 9th, 2015, 11:25 AM   #1000 (permalink)
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Long 51 and out 51.42. This falls into SCREEN based experience category. At 51.80 indicators were showing buy, buy and at 50.90 sell, sell (lol). Algo's can ONLY push price so much, that's why i got out.


No new trade since long off NY open. When there is no Edge, i try sit on hands. There is no need to muck up gains from Globex session and NY open. Real buyers and sellers do not muck around with 40 ticks range. Never confuse algo's based PRICE ACTION with Real Buyers/Sellers. My bias is still to the short side with 52 as a refrence point.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 9th, 2015 at 11:32 AM.
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