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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,712 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old January 18th, 2015, 04:42 PM   #91 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Just my style- five here, 10 - 20 there

-Bill_M

my point is, you have a market that has gone almost straight down from 107.68-44.20; and could arguably be classified as a once-in-a-lifetime move, that may never be repeated again in your lifetime, and you are happy with a little bit here and little bit there? you can't take markets like these for granted. you have to take the greatest advantage of them as possible, because they are golden opportunities, that don't come along too often. when cl is going sideways for 9 months and is choppy as hell and whipping everybody around, and it will revert to this kind of trade again, you will wish you took greater advantage of this market. just something to consider....


Last edited by tigertrader; January 18th, 2015 at 04:48 PM.
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Old January 18th, 2015, 05:00 PM   #92 (permalink)
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While I agree completely with your comment regarding the effect of Contango on ETFs it should be noted that the negative effect on returns applies to long positions. For short ETFs (short ETF or long inverse ETF) the effect should in theory be the opposite, ie positive yield roll in a contango market.

that's true in practice

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Old January 18th, 2015, 06:38 PM   #93 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
i just don't get it...

why would you want to be flat at the end of the day if you have a big lead on a trade; and, you are right the market ?

Would have been good to be flat for the Swissy traders on the wrong side the other day....

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Old January 18th, 2015, 06:53 PM   #94 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Would have been good to be flat for the Swissy traders on the wrong side the other day....

shit happens...during the rth session, also. so should you always be flat?

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Old January 18th, 2015, 07:02 PM   #95 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
shit happens...during the rth session, also. so should you always be flat?

For the record I agree for the most part. There are times when I expect a better (re)entry the next day on a continuing move but of course the risk is having it take off without you, ergo you will not get an argument from me.

I was being a bit of a wiseguy.

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Old January 18th, 2015, 07:06 PM   #96 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
For the record I agree for the most part. There are times when I expect a better (re)entry the next day on a continuing move but of course the risk is having it take off without you, ergo you will not get an argument from me.

I was being a bit of a wiseguy.

Must be a Chicago thing?

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Old January 18th, 2015, 07:09 PM   #97 (permalink)
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SEATTLE!!!!

hating greenbay, is a chicago thing...

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Old January 18th, 2015, 08:08 PM   #98 (permalink)
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I attended a Rational Trader dot com (Shane Handy) webinar yesterday on /CL order flow, 11amET to 3pm and he did a damn good job. Especially since it was zero clams to attend. Full disclosure - I'll be taking the seven day trial

The platform he uses is Sierra Chart 10 tick bid x ask bars, volume profile and various form(s) of a moving average (IMO they are all MA's) two or three - mostly to measure standard deviation.

He doesn't sell anything other than monthly trade room fee (99?)

His primary focus is price action and bid ask volume - who, what, when and where

Pretty much the proverbial teach a guy/ gal to hunt.........


@tigertrader

LulZZZZ you say that, or what did the market do today?

Me, typical reply "I don't no, down in the morning (Frankfurt/ London/ New York) up in the afternoon, that's about all I know."

Nonetheless yes sir I'd love to see this getting back to trading

Make money, minimize losses, move on and flat at the end of each day - the earlier the better

Ride safe

-Bill

EDIT

It put me on to this (thread post I did at thinkscripter)



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I've been reading this thread here & there, and, though it's really been all over the place, just thought I'd jump in due to that footprint snippet of Friday morning. Footprint charts are a huge component of my trading, and, that 47.16 bid print was a gift, and sign. The one you mentioned occurred 50min before pit open. Prior to that there were viable textbook signs from the overnight (London) session that buying was the true intention.

That 540 x 0 print and the clear price directional push up after that (along with a big and ask gap created above it) are typically a sign of a specific price defence and intent.

Expecting those pre-pit bid x ask prints to be revisited/retested/refilled is often reasonable, as is even more reasonable to watch and expect further determined and size-based bidding to occur at that level, which, is exactly what the big boys did on pit open, printing 382 x 0 and then 252 x 0 across the 2 5min bars on my chart. Their willingness to soak up every last seller with a zero-ask side print is often a sign of their determination. These types of prints used to occur a bit more frequently, when CL had smaller week ranges, and, had not basically one-wayed from that $95 range, to where we are; the last time I remember a similar such print was Dec 1, where the bottom printed with a massive seller exhaustion down into the $60 area, right at London open, and then uplifted $7 that day. (Yes, that ~$67 price then marked the peak, and, it of course hasn't been back there since.)

Apologies if this is perhaps too detailed for the thread, but that chart snippet I thought deserved more of a follow-up write-up. Given that the next pit open test about 90 minutes later held, there were very good odds that CL would make some deserved price recovery; buying ensued through the CL day, with a lifting of the offer, and decent buy flows. IMHO CL(March) was further helped along due to the post-February contract roll, and general indexes recovery that ensued into Friday afternoon.

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Old January 18th, 2015, 10:00 PM   #99 (permalink)
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Actually SZO, not SCO

SCO seems to be what you want.

Thanks for the link (I was able to find what I wanted through your link), However, actually you are wrong. SCO is -2X short. It is SZO that is the -1X ETF short on crude.

This is offered by Powershares.

Just to understand the ETF offerers better, I know they have as major offerers.

1 Proshares
2 Direxion
3. Powershares is new to me

Are there any other major ETF offerers out there other than these three or are these the three major players.
And I don't see Proshares or Direxion offering a -1X short inverse on crude oil

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Old January 18th, 2015, 10:32 PM   #100 (permalink)
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SCO seems to be what you want.

Thanks for the link (I was able to find what I wanted through your link), However, actually you are wrong. SCO is -2X short. It is SZO that is the -1X ETF short on crude.

This is offered by Powershares.

Just to understand the ETF offerers better, I know they have as major offerers.

1 Proshares
2 Direxion
3. Powershares is new to me

Are there any other major ETF offerers out there other than these three or are these the three major players.
And I don't see Proshares or Direxion offering a -1X short inverse on crude oil

DNO is what I use.

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