my point is, you have a market that has gone almost straight down from 107.68-44.20; and could arguably be classified as a once-in-a-lifetime move, that may never be repeated again in your lifetime, and you are happy with a little bit here and little bit there? you can't take markets like these for granted. you have to take the greatest advantage of them as possible, because they are golden opportunities, that don't come along too often. when cl is going sideways for 9 months and is choppy as hell and whipping everybody around, and it will revert to this kind of trade again, you will wish you took greater advantage of this market. just something to consider....
Last edited by tigertrader; January 18th, 2015 at 03:48 PM.
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For the record I agree for the most part. There are times when I expect a better (re)entry the next day on a continuing move but of course the risk is having it take off without you, ergo you will not get an argument from me.
I was being a bit of a wiseguy.
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I've been reading this thread here & there, and, though it's really been all over the place, just thought I'd jump in due to that footprint snippet of Friday morning. Footprint charts are a huge component of my trading, and, that 47.16 bid print was a gift, and sign. The one you mentioned occurred 50min before pit open. Prior to that there were viable textbook signs from the overnight (London) session that buying was the true intention.
That 540 x 0 print and the clear price directional push up after that (along with a big and ask gap created above it) are typically a sign of a specific price defence and intent.
Expecting those pre-pit bid x ask prints to be revisited/retested/refilled is often reasonable, as is even more reasonable to watch and expect further determined and size-based bidding to occur at that level, which, is exactly what the big boys did on pit open, printing 382 x 0 and then 252 x 0 across the 2 5min bars on my chart. Their willingness to soak up every last seller with a zero-ask side print is often a sign of their determination. These types of prints used to occur a bit more frequently, when CL had smaller week ranges, and, had not basically one-wayed from that $95 range, to where we are; the last time I remember a similar such print was Dec 1, where the bottom printed with a massive seller exhaustion down into the $60 area, right at London open, and then uplifted $7 that day. (Yes, that ~$67 price then marked the peak, and, it of course hasn't been back there since.)
Apologies if this is perhaps too detailed for the thread, but that chart snippet I thought deserved more of a follow-up write-up. Given that the next pit open test about 90 minutes later held, there were very good odds that CL would make some deserved price recovery; buying ensued through the CL day, with a lifting of the offer, and decent buy flows. IMHO CL(March) was further helped along due to the post-February contract roll, and general indexes recovery that ensued into Friday afternoon.
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