Fwiw, coincidentally last week I did this little analysis for NQ. In the image my results.
Note that this for NQ, and datainput is ‘only’ the past 14-15 months, but these stats are always interesting to see. The numbers in the cells are occurences.
I defined for ON range:
And for RTH range:
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One of my worst enemies are my own false assumptions
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Picked up CL a year ago after many years trading FX and gold spot. Given my limited CL experience, don't want to say much to influence any new CL traders.
All I'll say is compared to FX and ES, CL is wild. Yesterday's action was a good example. Compared to gold, I've observed CL respects much more often and more accurately psychological (round levels) and prior highs/lows. My half cent.
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Thanks for the observations. Funnily enough I used to trade the exact same products (spot). Moved to futures to refine my strategy and learn to read order flow and use volume as an indicator. Difficult process starting from scratch (almost) but so far happy with the decision. I like CL so far, Still trying a variety of products but this one speaks to me the most.
In my case I had become dependent on an edge I lost. Used to work on FX & Commodities Inst Sales for a big bank and had access to privileged info (such as flow, market maker's views, etc ... pls do not confuse with insider trading, the only illegal trading that can happen in FX is front-running clients and manipulating prices around the fixes). Thus the switch to futures.
Last edited by Oysteryx; September 3rd, 2014 at 11:28 AM.
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What is interesting to note is that you mentioned the disconnect between the complete dump yesterday in the price of CL as it came off over $2, yet the rise in cumulative delta.
Perhaps this was an intentional move? Larger players bidding it down yesterday to build a more profitable position for the long term? I have never used CD, but I can see why many people use it in their trading!
Last edited by CobblersAwls; September 3rd, 2014 at 01:47 PM.
Reason: don't know how to include your chart in quote
So shorted at 95.8 (previous close) for a 25 pip gain on a 1:1 RR trade. Not great. That said, its the first time I comment about a trade, and don't think an intraday trade of this sort adds value to the community, so will refrain from doing so. Sry for the noise.