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CL Crude-nalysis
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CL Crude-nalysis

  #61 (permalink)
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ON-RTH range relationship


indextrader7 View Post
Who thinks the size of the O/N range has anything to do with the size of the resulting RTH range?

Some say small O/N ranges lead to larger RTH ranges. Some say vice versa.

What say you and what do you have to back up that statement?



Fwiw, coincidentally last week I did this little analysis for NQ. In the image my results.
Note that this for NQ, and datainput is ‘only’ the past 14-15 months, but these stats are always interesting to see. The numbers in the cells are occurences.

I defined for ON range:
0-15 small
15-25 medium
25- large

And for RTH range:
0-20 small
20-40 medium
40- large
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One of my worst enemies are my own false assumptions
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  #62 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
If I may, do you guys find that Crude differs from other products such as FX/Indices/Equities etc in any particular ways? Does Crude have any quirks that newcomers should be aware of? All general information and reading material suggestions welcomed.Cheers.

Picked up CL a year ago after many years trading FX and gold spot. Given my limited CL experience, don't want to say much to influence any new CL traders.

All I'll say is compared to FX and ES, CL is wild. Yesterday's action was a good example. Compared to gold, I've observed CL respects much more often and more accurately psychological (round levels) and prior highs/lows. My half cent.

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Oysteryx View Post
Picked up CL a year ago after many years trading FX and gold spot. Given my limited CL experience, don't want to say much to influence any new CL traders.

All I'll say is compared to FX and ES, CL is wild. Yesterday's action was a good example. Compared to gold, I've observed CL respects much more often and more accurately psychological (round levels) and prior highs/lows. My half cent.

Thanks for the observations. Funnily enough I used to trade the exact same products (spot). Moved to futures to refine my strategy and learn to read order flow and use volume as an indicator. Difficult process starting from scratch (almost) but so far happy with the decision. I like CL so far, Still trying a variety of products but this one speaks to me the most.

Anyone else?

 
  #64 (permalink)
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In my case I had become dependent on an edge I lost. Used to work on FX & Commodities Inst Sales for a big bank and had access to privileged info (such as flow, market maker's views, etc ... pls do not confuse with insider trading, the only illegal trading that can happen in FX is front-running clients and manipulating prices around the fixes). Thus the switch to futures.


Last edited by Oysteryx; September 3rd, 2014 at 12:28 PM.
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  #65 (permalink)
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Oysteryx View Post
I find today's cumulative delta divergence quite odd. See the attached CLV14 60minute chart. Not an expert on the field.

What is interesting to note is that you mentioned the disconnect between the complete dump yesterday in the price of CL as it came off over $2, yet the rise in cumulative delta.

Perhaps this was an intentional move? Larger players bidding it down yesterday to build a more profitable position for the long term? I have never used CD, but I can see why many people use it in their trading!


Last edited by CobblersAwls; September 3rd, 2014 at 02:47 PM. Reason: don't know how to include your chart in quote
 
  #66 (permalink)
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About to fade this move up depending on how it gets to the 95.4-95.5 area.

Edit: too much strength. Staying put.

 
  #67 (permalink)
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I have no clue what CL is doing today. I honestly haven't been this lost as to what the market is trying to accomplish in months.

It's ok though, things will shake out, and I'll "see something" at some point. Recent movement seems odd though. Maybe it's just an end to summer doldrums and things are shaking out a bit.

I'll remain longer term bearish and still looking for that 90ish area as long as we remain below 96.60 area.

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  #68 (permalink)
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So shorted at 95.8 (previous close) for a 25 pip gain on a 1:1 RR trade. Not great. That said, its the first time I comment about a trade, and don't think an intraday trade of this sort adds value to the community, so will refrain from doing so. Sry for the noise.

Long term I'm with @indextrader: bearish. No long term trades from the long side for me before 90 or some significant geopolitical event in the Middle East.

Why bearish? I believe the USD bull run has just started, and I expect anchored inflation expectations, rising real rates, sluggish growth around the world, and a continued buildup of US oil capacity.

Attached chart is a volume based continuous contract chart starting in sep 2011 - timescale got cutoff somehow.

Attached Thumbnails
CL Crude-nalysis-clv14-weekly-trendlines.png  
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  #69 (permalink)
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I forgot to mention... @BTR411 yesterday we took out that poor low that we discussed at length last week.

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Yep!

Great back to back "set it and forget it" type trend days on oil. Days like this make the month for us!!

Hard to ask for anything more!

5000 volume chart diverged on all ends.

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indextrader7 View Post
I forgot to mention... @BTR411 yesterday we took out that poor low that we discussed at length last week.

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Last edited by BTR411; September 3rd, 2014 at 10:09 PM. Reason: added chart
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