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CL Crude-nalysis
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CL Crude-nalysis

  #51 (permalink)
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Context is KEY


indextrader7 View Post
Well, I wish I had a better answer for you but... When your context is for balance/range-bound trading, and the market gets up to high end of the range, it really doesn't matter to me what my exact entry is as long as R:R is there. There's nothing special about .46 what so ever. Orderflow started to change up there, at an area I was interested in doing business, boom, pull the trigger.

The way I enter trades there is no setup or exact trigger, it's a pure culmination of past screen time, discretion, and subconscious free flow of imagination.

Thanks IT7,

I agree Context is King, I think entry is of lesser importance I was just curious if there was something you looked for. Orderflow, in particular using the DOM can often be hard to quantify or mechanize for a mechanical entry trigger. I do use a lot of feel myself.

One more trade a late day shot at a scalp going into the close, but no follow thru so just ended up as a scratch.

http://www.tradervue.com/shared/trades/1283539

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LoneWolfTrader View Post
Thanks IT7,

One more trade a late day shot at a scalp going into the close, but no follow thru so just ended up as a scratch.

Tradervue | CLV4 Trade Detail

Be careful with entering trades in the middle of such congestion, especially on a day like today where you clearly have both sides of the market in a tug-of-war type situation vying for control. If you were to have traded more of an extreme, you would have had much less heat and less/no losses.

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[My post from 8/27 7:13AM CST]

indextrader7 View Post
Will be interesting to see if CL can push up to 95.15 today or not. Seems like it needs to rally a bit to find sellers to finish this down move to 90-92 area. 94.70 also an area that may stop the rally/find sellers.

and the pic to help show how it's played out so far

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The reason for this post is not to be like so many on twitter that throw up all the time and then point out when 1/5 things was halfway right.

The point of this post I want to make is that sometimes your analysis is a day or two or three ahead of where the market is. That's ok, be patient and keep up with what you thought and saw yesterday and the day before.


COMING INTO THIS MORNING. If we could stop hunt just above these O/N highs of 95.15 I would love to get me some shorts on at that point. We'll see, we may blow right through it.

Reminder we're entering a holiday weekend. Could be light and tight.

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Execute the plan. NEXT!

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Who thinks the size of the O/N range has anything to do with the size of the resulting RTH range?

Some say small O/N ranges lead to larger RTH ranges. Some say vice versa.

What say you and what do you have to back up that statement?

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  #56 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Who thinks the size of the O/N range has anything to do with the size of the resulting RTH range?

Some say small O/N ranges lead to larger RTH ranges. Some say vice versa.

What say you and what do you have to back up that statement?

would the large or small move be relative to the size of the o/n range? or, would you be comparing the move to ADRs over a period of days? if you are just talking about a single day then it makes sense that moves are bigger on smaller o/n ranges.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  #57 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post
Who thinks the size of the O/N range has anything to do with the size of the resulting RTH range?

Some say small O/N ranges lead to larger RTH ranges. Some say vice versa.

What say you and what do you have to back up that statement?

My informal and non tested opinion is this;

Larger (relatively speaking to the 3 and 10 ADR) O/N ranges generally lead to smaller RTH ranges......of course there are exceptions to every general rule.....I can show you both.....but generally speaking I find large O/N ranges lead to smaller RTH ranges.....some would call this a spike and channel.....

The converse is often true as well....smaller O/N ranges often lead to larger RTH ranges.....all relative to the 3 and 10 ADR.....

These are just my general observations over time.....take with a grain of salt......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #58 (permalink)
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Great thread guys, I've been following and enjoying the discussions and examples of your crude analysis/trades.

If I may, do you guys find that Crude differs from other products such as FX/Indices/Equities etc in any particular ways? Does Crude have any quirks that newcomers should be aware of? All general information and reading material suggestions welcomed.

Cheers.

 
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CobblersAwls View Post
Great thread guys, I've been following and enjoying the discussions and examples of your crude analysis/trades.

If I may, do you guys find that Crude differs from other products such as FX/Indices/Equities etc in any particular ways? Does Crude have any quirks that newcomers should be aware of? All general information and reading material suggestions welcomed.

Cheers.

I'm new to crude market. Just three trades in the last days (the three winners ), and yes I've had the sense that it's special, different.

Why, how?. Well, it's a bit early for me to have a bit solid conclusions but the sensation is that it is too hard (weighted) to move it as expected, and suddenly it moves lighter and far away than expected.

Home people force
 
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CD divergence


I find today's cumulative delta divergence quite odd. See the attached CLV14 60minute chart. Not an expert on the field.

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CL Crude-nalysis-cl-cd-divergence.png  
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