I agree Context is King, I think entry is of lesser importance I was just curious if there was something you looked for. Orderflow, in particular using the DOM can often be hard to quantify or mechanize for a mechanical entry trigger. I do use a lot of feel myself.
One more trade a late day shot at a scalp going into the close, but no follow thru so just ended up as a scratch.
Be careful with entering trades in the middle of such congestion, especially on a day like today where you clearly have both sides of the market in a tug-of-war type situation vying for control. If you were to have traded more of an extreme, you would have had much less heat and less/no losses.
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and the pic to help show how it's played out so far
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The reason for this post is not to be like so many on twitter that throw up all the time and then point out when 1/5 things was halfway right.
The point of this post I want to make is that sometimes your analysis is a day or two or three ahead of where the market is. That's ok, be patient and keep up with what you thought and saw yesterday and the day before.
COMING INTO THIS MORNING. If we could stop hunt just above these O/N highs of 95.15 I would love to get me some shorts on at that point. We'll see, we may blow right through it.
Reminder we're entering a holiday weekend. Could be light and tight.
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would the large or small move be relative to the size of the o/n range? or, would you be comparing the move to ADRs over a period of days? if you are just talking about a single day then it makes sense that moves are bigger on smaller o/n ranges.
dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see
Larger (relatively speaking to the 3 and 10 ADR) O/N ranges generally lead to smaller RTH ranges......of course there are exceptions to every general rule.....I can show you both.....but generally speaking I find large O/N ranges lead to smaller RTH ranges.....some would call this a spike and channel.....
The converse is often true as well....smaller O/N ranges often lead to larger RTH ranges.....all relative to the 3 and 10 ADR.....
These are just my general observations over time.....take with a grain of salt......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Great thread guys, I've been following and enjoying the discussions and examples of your crude analysis/trades.
If I may, do you guys find that Crude differs from other products such as FX/Indices/Equities etc in any particular ways? Does Crude have any quirks that newcomers should be aware of? All general information and reading material suggestions welcomed.
I'm new to crude market. Just three trades in the last days (the three winners ), and yes I've had the sense that it's special, different.
Why, how?. Well, it's a bit early for me to have a bit solid conclusions but the sensation is that it is too hard (weighted) to move it as expected, and suddenly it moves lighter and far away than expected.