CL Crude-nalysis

September 30th, 2014, 06:45 PM

I just watched it go down... And down.

September 30th, 2014, 08:02 PM

indextrader7

Well I had stopped trading for the day before the real fireworks began! wow!

Anyone kill it today?

Went short @ 94.19 today. It was a good day

September 30th, 2014, 08:11 PM

well I didn't get much of it but the trade I planned worked like a charm.....I sold 94.62 I think.....very near the top.....

October 2nd, 2014, 09:31 PM

superpete

I just watched it go down... And down.

Anybody else find it interesting that prompt CL has dropped about $1.50 in the last 4 sessions, but the front spread has actually widened a 16c?
Bad Math Should be...
Anybody else find it interesting that prompt CL has dropped about $2.50 (9354 to 9101) in the last 4 sessions, but the front spread has actually widened a 21c (92 to 113)?

October 2nd, 2014, 09:49 PM

SMCJB

Anybody else find it interesting that prompt CL has dropped about $1.50 in the last 4 sessions, but the front spread has actually widened a 16c?

Interest rates have been going down, decreasing the cost of carry, increasing backwardation along the curve, and thus increasing the spreads.

October 2nd, 2014, 10:38 PM

SMCJB

Anybody else find it interesting that prompt CL has dropped about $1.50 in the last 4 sessions, but the front spread has actually widened a 16c?
Bad Math Should be...
Anybody else find it interesting that prompt CL has dropped about $2.50 (9354 to 9101) in the last 4 sessions, but the front spread has actually widened a 21c (92 to 113)?

Same answer applies.

Look at this: Treasuries, LIBOR and [AUTOLINK]Yield[/AUTOLINK] Curve

And this (eurodollar Dec14 futures):

Short rates going down. Wider front spreads.

October 2nd, 2014, 11:39 PM

I see the action today in crude as one big nasty stop hunt. I am even more confident in the market state being the beginning of a new bull phase than I was on those initial tags of 90.00

Again we have the highs up at 94.80 to get to, and if can break those we're looking at 98.50 area, and then the long term wedge highs are currently (dropping) at 102.40

Could be wrong of course, but just sharing my thoughts! I hear a lot about fundamentals that put bearish pressure on this market right now. I'll continue to just trade what I see.

Trade well!

October 3rd, 2014, 12:43 AM

@indextrader7

I agree with you that we may have seen the ending of the down move. I use volume rather than fundamentalism, so seeing the very large daily volumes this week, I think we may be in for a good up move, as I think we had a Selling Climax today.

Here are some screenshots

Regards,

Dudley