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looking for spread traders
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Created: by crito Attachments:18

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looking for spread traders

  #31 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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hi guys,

to get back to that spread i mentioned before: sell NGH14 buy NGJ14
i closed it today.
Guess it was a very lucky trade (well you need that sometimse ;-)
sold at $2700 and bough back this morning at $700
i did not expect it to come down so fast, thought it would take till feb to get it down...

perhaps wait a while if the spread get again above $2500 to ride it again ;-)

happy new year with good trades.

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  #32 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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crito View Post
i did not expect it to come down so fast, thought it would take till feb to get it down...
perhaps wait a while if the spread get again above $2500 to ride it again ;-)

Market did drop 20c/MMBtu on Tuesday... back up 9c today, so you may get a chance to do it again.

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  #33 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Market did drop 20c/MMBtu on Tuesday... back up 9c today, so you may get a chance to do it again.

if it happens again, i guess i'll wait till i see it bend down again over the top this time
i still think the chances it will expire with a difference between $500 to $1000 (between the contracts) are higher than some guys playing the market... but i'll look at the historical years this weekend...


Last edited by crito; January 2nd, 2014 at 04:56 PM. Reason: typo
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  #34 (permalink)
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@josh: Gross is bullish on the front end of the curve, because the taper announcement combined with a drop in IOER could turn out to be very bullish for the bond market. And, this would persist until the Fed actually raises the funds rate, which wouldn't be until JY sees 6.5% unemployment and 2.0% inflation.

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  #35 (permalink)
One who has little to say
Cabo San Lucas & or Wichita Kansas
 
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crito View Post
hi,

I'm looking for spread traders to share ideas with.
i have been trading futures and future optinos for many years and am now looking into (future) spread trading.
i can find only a few threads about spreads so hopefully there are some people out there...

you can either reply on this therad or send me an inmail.

to make it a bit more concrete, i have been looking at the following spread:
sell NGH14 buy NGJ14
comment welcome,

have a good Xmas!

newbie to spreads here. I never really go to thinking about them much as late until i looked at SeasonalAlgo and saw NGM14-NGQ14 spread and it got me thinking. I was wondering if this could be done with options as well?

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  #36 (permalink)
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hi,

Here the NGh-NGj spreads of the last 9 years, and except 2009 all others ended negative (top left is current and still positive).
Even the 2006 year ended negative.
All curves are downwards
although the NG market changed a lot last few years, i guess there is a fair chance that if it gets high enough again it can be a nice ride down again.

@Nomad4x, i'm new to spreads too, and like you have the feeling money can be made. would love to share experiances to learn. Does seasonAlgo has stacked charts? so eg. the same contracts (or spreads) of various years on top of each other?

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  #37 (permalink)
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Where to learn to spread trade? Can anybody recommend resources to learn spread trading? Not looking for "guru" but simple resource that explains the mechanics. thanks.

the meanest bean of all,
MeanBean
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  #38 (permalink)
One who has little to say
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crito View Post
hi,

Here the NGh-NGj spreads of the last 9 years, and except 2009 all others ended negative (top left is current and still positive).
Even the 2006 year ended negative.
All curves are downwards
although the NG market changed a lot last few years, i guess there is a fair chance that if it gets high enough again it can be a nice ride down again.

@Nomad4x, i'm new to spreads too, and like you have the feeling money can be made. would love to share experiances to learn. Does seasonAlgo has stacked charts? so eg. the same contracts (or spreads) of various years on top of each other?

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Not that I'm aware of, however, if you have 50 twitter followers and do a tweet advertising Tweet about us and get full access for 14 days | SeasonAlgo.com - SA they will give you a 14 day trial. I was looking at this for my selling options and stumbled across your thread and thought this sort of fits in to selling options in a round about way. I get seasonal data in TNT Live, however, it is somewhat cumbersome and not logical.

I'll post here when I know a bit more about stacking charts. This should be a fun journey!

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  #39 (permalink)
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MeanBean View Post
Where to learn to spread trade? Can anybody recommend resources to learn spread trading? Not looking for "guru" but simple resource that explains the mechanics. thanks.

This site has some basic info to help you get started: What is Spread Trading?

Joe Ross also has a book "Trading Spreads And Seasonals", you may be able to find a pdf version somewhere like scribd.com.


Last edited by walker; January 3rd, 2014 at 10:37 AM.
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  #40 (permalink)
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nomad4x View Post
newbie to spreads here. I never really go to thinking about them much as late until i looked at SeasonalAlgo and saw NGM14-NGQ14 spread and it got me thinking. I was wondering if this could be done with options as well?

Do you mean buying or selling? (or buy one /sell other?)
Point is that with a spread, both contracts can go up but if one goes up faster the spread either goes up or down.
So if the spread goes up you don't know what the 2 future do.


what i like about spreads is that you have a complete different instrument (low correlation with others), also it (often) doesn't move as fast as the futures (so can be traded with smaller accounts or used to open more different spreads to diversify for the same money) and i have the idea they move more gradually (not as erratic/high vola as the futs)
and obviously the margin is lower but the gains too.

@MeanBean,
MRCI MRCI Products seasonal spread strategies and trading strategies for futures traders has some spreads & seasonal but I never made any money with those (when I had a membership)
Point is (in my opinion) they look back 5 or 10 years see that if you traded between date X and date Y you would have had 90% winners and made $$$. But if you have enough data you always find those periods and in statistics 5 or 10 samples is really nothing (which seems to be correct, seen their bad performing portfolio, once again when i was there a few years ago).
So either Iím not doing it right (using their info that is) orÖ

The basics are pretty simple, you buy one contract and sell the other and Iím a strong believer that you can learn a lot form books but nobody is going to tell you how to make $$$ (in that case they didnít write the book but used their own system).
Happy to share experiences with you, in a quest to finding a profitable way of trading spreads.

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