By way of introducing myself, I have no trading experience but am currently working on a business plan and cash flow forecasts to setup a commercial gas supply company here in the United Kingdom. The market is a very closed run thing and I am struggling to get the information required. The main part of the plan requires knowledge of trading physical gas. This is such a complex industry with huge profit but not without its risk. I am appealing for anyone with the knowledge of how this market works in terms of trading gas futures and how to get statistics on historical data for trading futures. Currently I am trying to compare like for like gas spot prices with gas futures prices for the previous year to date, working on the basis that I would be hedging a month at a time. So for example I would like to get the average futures price for August 2012 if buying during the previous month of July 2012 and the same for each month thereafter. Ideally I would also like to do this with longer hedges of 2/3 months to compare.
I already have the daily spot price information but I seem to have no way of getting the futures information and wondered if anyone could help.
I am aware that the trading is done through ICE and APXENDEX here in the UK.
Even if you can't help with my particular current predicament, I am most certainly in need of any help that is on offer as I have to create a sound business plan very soon as I have some large companies interested.
I hope to hear for anyone you thinks they can help.
This post has been selected as an answer to the original posters question
I have never traded RBOB, but have trade WTI crude oil exclusively and have stayed somewhat aware of the relationship between the two, and therefore to some extent the motion. If you do not find someone, I would be willing to share what I know about it.
Thank you all for your help and steer in the right direction.
With regards to fat tails and the links you have provided this all looks very promising.
The image for the TradingView Chart looks like the exact market I am looking at getting the historical data from.
The only problem I have is that as I am not a trader I cannot easily read these charts.
If I find the right place for the historical data and get taught how to extract the data I need in layman's terms then I could go through and retrieve it all and produce my business plan and cash flow forecasts from that data.
If I give one example of what I need, then perhaps one of you helpful people can help me further. I hope.
So for instance I would like to know an average price for Physical Natural Gas to be delivered into the UK system, for say July 2012 if purchased during the month prior (June 2012) I would be buying a whole month of days at a time. This way I can work out and plot the average prices for hedging one month in advance, I would then follow this example and plot up until July 2013. I would then hope to plot the same for 2/3 month hedges and then plot buying quarter blocks of 3 months and annual blocks of days.
This all seems rather complicated with no trading background and am hopeful that someone takes pity on me.