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Thank you very much for your time David. Considering that I somewhat talked MP down initially, I appreciate your patience with my lack of truly understanding that MP was not one of those classic lagging indicators, so again, thanks!
I need to spend a little time trying to absorb this data so that I can possibly try to see if and how its worth any value to the way I trade. And it may very hold some supporting value to me. Is there any way for you to take my chart from 8/20 and extrapolate any useful correlations related to your MP chart? I'm sure this early in my understanding of MP that I won't be able to do it, yet.
As I stated earlier, there are some variations of how one can read the tape. Sure T&S is reading the tape, and so is watching price action on a ladder. Reading the T&S can't always tell one where the real excitement is. I find the price action way of reading the tape to be much more insightful. Although I have learned that closing the DOM (price ladder/order book) after I get in a trade is helpful because staying focused on my levels and the corresponding volume trumps all. Once I'm close to potential support or resistance that may mark the end of my ride, I then go back to the order ladder to place my order. Once there, I will then revert back to watching price action to try and decipher if my order to get out of my position at said level is right thing to do or will price momentarily squirt resulting in a much better fill. You gotta keep your greed in check though.
David, its not very complex, but there is alot that goes into how and why I do what I do when I do it. Of my two biggest faults in my trading I will say that conservative (brass-less) exits on the profitable side is one of them. This is mainly because, for example, I hate being in the green 30-40 ticks, just for it to turn into 20 two minutes later and the having to wait 45 minutes to possibly get back to up 40 ticks and possibly 60. I don't like to wait to get paid and I don't like being married to a trade. Get me in and get me the hell out! But as time goes by and the accounts grow I've noticed that the brass thickens. However, when the brass gets too thick you start to become a superstar in your own mind and open the door for catastrophic losses. Essentially I do my best to keep my greed and my head at bay. To make in a week what many comfortable people make in a year is something that needs to truly be taken into perspective and understanding that it can all get flushed down the toilet just as fast if you think you're a tuff guy; its critical to know that the trap door is there.
Its not you vs. the market in this game. Its you vs. you. You click the mouse, the market doesn't click it for you...
DeadCatBouncer, you speak as a VSA practitioner ? Is VSA at the core of your trading ? The few rare persons that master it all say the same things, ie, indicators are lagging, Fibonacci levels are nothing more than levels of demand/supply that can be easily deduced from price action, volume at key levels is the way to go as they show where smart money runs their business etc.
When i ask them OK, where do you enter and why, they can easily identify these areas on a previous day by hindsight but when i ask them to do it live i do not see much difference with those who use so called lagging indicators, ie, they win some they lose some. Volume is quite tricky to decipher even more so when you use the standard vertical histogram it can even be considered as a lagging indicator. I get more usefull information from areas that have low volume than high volume quite the opposite of what a VSA user would tell. Most of my winning trades are preceeded with low volume activity and indecisive bars.
Anyway, it would be interesting to show where and why you enter a trade using your volume and level analysis.
I'll get to my entry soon. I'm just trying to see if anyone can find roughly where and why I went short. So I'm going to hang tight on that for a bit.
there's alot I need to see take place to enter a trade. And for me to go heavy, I need to see exactly what I'm looking for in a manner that I say to myself, "There it is, that's precisely what I was waiting for." Its almost like being a gazelle in the African savannah (yes I know, a member of a herd) that senses things are going to change here in a moment, and then all of a sudden you, and only you, get a peek at a cheetah poking its head through a few think blades of grass. Right then and there David you know its time to act, you need to be ready and confirm that your criteria have all been met, and if so you just get in.
Yes I have rules, and yes I break them from time to time and its very dangerous to do so. But you also have to make your rules reasonable. Sometimes people place their stops too tight and get taken out all day long. If you're not willing to take some heat there's no reason to click the mouse in the first place. But you need to manage the heat properly and call a loss a loss, or bad trade just that: a bad trade.
Account management and size management is really outside the scope of this discussion. Its a whole different party talking about that. I might get into it sometime, but now's not the time.
As for me being some youtube trader who always wins, well I wish I were that guy. My style of trading isn't the most popular, if it was the where would smart money go to get their daily profits? Not from me with any relative consistency. But the methodology of trading based on volume and price levels isn't all too uncommon and I see it spoken about on a number of different forums. But I do believe that most people think that its too easy to be real. My account is real, that i do know.
I'm self taught, but without having met a couple of key people in the industry and learning just a few things from them I would have never known what I know now.
I must say though, that I've already said more in these posts than what was explained to me many years ago. I took the ball and ran with it because I wanted it more than almost anything else.
Look at those levels from my chart David, then look at the volume associated to those said levels, watch where price closes, then start to practice determining where price is going to go over the next 10-90 minutes based on that criterion. Then once you able to squeeze out 20-30 ticks at a time with relative ease, then go and do it live with one contract. Take it from there and don't sit around waiting to catch the 80 tick moves. There are usually about 3-4 good setups a day in the most heavily traded commodities.
I am just taking a educated guess based on what you have written here, and taking a quick look at a chart from Friday that you entered somewhere just under $74 a little after 10 CST. Now, I don't use volume in my trading, but I see a number of factors which would indicate a short opportunity here on multiple charts. I also got a signal close to the same price. And, last, I didn't see anyone else guess on your entry point, so here I am.
Oh most definitely VSA is at the core of what I do, but there's more to my style than just basic VSA. I analyze volume all day long, however, there's alot of shenanigans in VSA that I filter out. Wycoff, T. Williams, etc. are all smart traders who base everything they did on volume. However, that's always been the number one gripe of those who want to believe in VSA, but just don't because of what you stated: "they can easily identify these areas on a previous day by hindsight but when i ask them to do it live..." Well, let me say that once you've looked at the charts long enough (and only time can do this as you can't spend 40 hours in a week staring at VSA and expect to recognize the correct patterns.) you can definitely make better trades than those who use lagging indicators, and yes it can be done on the fly, live, realtime.
As for those who have heard of tradeguider, please pass, its a joke. just because they have their proprietary list of dozens and dozens of indicators doesn't mean that that program won't obliterate someone's account. F-that thing. <pass>
Anyway, back on topic. I will say that I whole heartedly disagree with your position that you take related to volume also being a lagging indicator. Yet I'm confused because I completely agree with your statement related to low volume. (whats going on here? you turn left, you turn right, you turn left again: I apologizecon, but I'm a tad confused) There's alot to be said about low volume, but not by itself! You need to combine it with price and levels.
Hang tight, I'll get onto where I entered my trade. I just want someone to tell me where they think I entered and why. Its right there in front of everyone and not that hard to see.
Hells yes Gary! SPOT ON! That was my first (not very confident) small lot short! Nice stuff. Yes, I was fooled and had a case of premature tradejaculation. I took some heat, but grabbed some cheaper cars not too much later on.
Now Gary (or anyone else) tell me where I scaled in a few more cars ( its obvious, yes, but a little risky).
Then I eventually went heavy and doubled my overall lot size, but where do you think i did it? What was I looking to see? What crietrion needed to be met for me to go balls-out? Please try and tell me where and why when you take a stab at it again.
PS: Thanks again for taking a shot, I'm glad the first person to try was correct, and I'm surprised you picked the bad leg of the trade because IMO that one was even harder to see!
*************Edit: Oh crap: I messed up Gary. 10AM CST was not right. Sorry for the f-up! I entered on the 10:10 bar EST! Shucks! My fault. The call you made was closer to my all-in trade, but not quite.
Okay, I took the MP charts and looked for correlations with the levels on your chart. It took me a few charts. I also added your chart for a refresh and put where I thought you added on.
@DeadCatBouncer, I'll guess you went short initially @ 10am and added @ 11:15am. It's what I would have done anyway, lol. I am looking at chart in post # 251.
Hey David, I'm going to be Frank with you, but your MP charts scare the crap out of me. Its like when your a kid and you're in your dimly lit bedroom and you hear weird noises coming from your closet and get up to go and open the closet door. That point where the door is just slightly cracked and you peer around to take a look with your flashlight waiting for something to jump on your face and kill ya. Yeah, well that's kinda how I feel looking at those MP charts!
HOWEVER, even though you were wrong about where I added a couple of contracts, you weren't far off from either of my scale-ins. I'll tell you why where you suggested that I added some contracts was not the best spot. But, I will say that if you can articulate to me why you chose that level that we may be onto something because it would have been nice to have added my heavy scale-in where you suggested that I may have.
I will say that one thing that isn't smart with going short in that neighborhood is doing so above the S1. Although I scaled in higher than that earlier, but that was in an effort to break even.
