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CP: i mostly use 24h data. i belive there are 3 markets: us, europe and asia. since i split/merge to find the balance it makes no difference what time i use. if i would be using just daily 24h profiles then from rht open to rht open would make sense.
i do occationly look at just the rht profiles to find the day structure.
concerning naked pocīs in my experience it depends on where the market is trading in relation to the poc. if time has passed or value is way off i might look for a quick fade. if today opens in yesterdays range/value i would be more careful since i would view ydays poc as a possible fair value today...
i just took a trade from the 2nd std.dev of bottom of value 1165.25 which also was the unfair low of yday. first target was poc 1168.50 but i just scaled ahead at 1168 to bank some profits. second VAH 1170 possibly the 2nd std.dev to the upside 1171.75.
Edit: A picture to go with that...
Edit Again: 1165.25 was NOT the unfair low of yday but the day before. I just forgot to update my HLC levels on the charts this morning. What a cluts i am...
Fiki - can you explain what you mean when you say you split the profiles so it doesn't make a difference? are you saying that if the overnight session overlaps with the previous day you split it and then merge the overnight with the previous day? That makes sense but sometimes there is a big gap up and so I'm not sure what to do with it.
well i have the profiles in 24 h. so i dont get gaps. then i just merge and split until i find a nice fit. im looking for e balanced distribution so as soon as it gets sqewed i look to se if i can split it. otherwise i split at the letter that brakes the bracket. so many times i get one long single print and then a distribution. i like those best since i like trading the single prints. and if its a big merge i mark not only the 70% standard VA but the 2nd std.dev 93% aswell. but this is my preference and my interpretation of mp.
On your entry bar the VPOC of the prior bar has a large number of contracts at the Bid vs. the Ask. How do you look at that? Is that just demand absorbing the selling at that level? I'm mainly asking from the order-flow perspective and what its telling you.
from an order flow perspective i actually though the bar that gave you 2 ticks of heat had a better setup for long, nice delta and imbalance of trapped sellers to buyers?
david: looking at it after the fact the entry was not the best. in the previous bar there was some form of climax - 1000 contracts traded at the bottom 2 ticks - and after that buyers start to initiate. my tactic is to get in on the move as close as possible to the vpoc. usually it is not possible because it gets tested with a few contracts and u donīt get the fill. so i usually front it. in this case it tickted up and then down and test the vpoc. it stoped right in front of it and it just hangs there with just a few contracts traded at the bid. after that low buyers start to initiate and even though the delta was negative the pullback delta was positive. it starts to tick down again. not much action this time of the day. so i put a limit at the vpoc-level betting it will just tick down and fill it before buyers initiate again. then all of a sudden someone puts a +100 lot and causes it to go through the vpoc and fill my order.
now the entry was not good because i should have bought 1 tick above or not at all. if i get the fill where i put my limit the market will most likely trade trough it like it did. but even though sellers hit the bid hard the next bar trading more than 500 contracts i kept the position because they could not take it further down and the green bar with the 1000 in the bottom was evidence of responsive buyers.
So yes I view it as demand absorbing supply. Shure seller are aggressive hitting the bid but in this game with all the algos u have to be on the lookout for sneaky buyers. When I see bigger volume on the ladder than on the DOM I “know” something is up. To me size and on what side of the volume last price is trading is most important. I think orderflow is important for seeing a possible reversal but I belive levels are more important. Orderflow can change with 1 big lot… hope it makes some sense…
