CL Market Profile Analysis - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


CL Market Profile Analysis
Updated: Views / Replies:47,419 / 280
Created: by David_R Attachments:133

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 133  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

CL Market Profile Analysis

  #71 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 61 given, 430 received

rassi. yes but thats after the fact.

in the moment of heat itīs more difficult. the delta is shifting and so on... one second it looks good the next not so... in a faster market i would buy the close on the first green bar. that one looks and looked then like a good oppertunity. because of the time of day and the more illiquid market i hessitated and then saw the weaknes so i tried to get in more closer to the vpoc with lower risk...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fiki for this post:
 
  #72 (permalink)
Sharpening mental edge
the congo
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: North sea oil rig
Favorite Futures: Cl
 
rassi's Avatar
 
Posts: 827 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,159 given, 926 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


fiki View Post
rassi. yes but thats after the fact.

in the moment of heat itīs more difficult. the delta is shifting and so on... one second it looks good the next not so... in a faster market i would buy the close on the first green bar. that one looks and looked then like a good oppertunity. because of the time of day and the more illiquid market i hessitated and then saw the weaknes so i tried to get in more closer to the vpoc with lower risk...

fiki, i wasn't criticizing just wondering out loud if my reading of the flow was correct! either way great entry, hardly any heat and great r:r thanks for your continued updates really helping me.

Reply With Quote
 
  #73 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 61 given, 430 received


rassi. critics are welcome. thats how we learn. the "after fact" comment was a "joke". the bar u refer to would be optimal but like i wrote to david. it "looked" like a buy until all those sellers started hitting the bid. and i again looked like my avatar swearing like a...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fiki for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Sharpening mental edge
the congo
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: North sea oil rig
Favorite Futures: Cl
 
rassi's Avatar
 
Posts: 827 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,159 given, 926 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


fiki View Post
rassi. critics are welcome. thats how we learn. the "after fact" comment was a "joke". the bar u refer to would be optimal but like i wrote to david. it "looked" like a buy until all those sellers started hitting the bid. and i again looked like my avatar swearing like a...

so out of interest what was your target on that trade? iirc your are scaling out?

Reply With Quote
 
  #75 (permalink)
Elite Member
Naperville IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NT broker
Favorite Futures: NQ ES 6E GC CL
 
Posts: 954 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 1,184 given, 650 received

Thank you David

Reply With Quote
 
  #76 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 61 given, 430 received

rassi i use 2 units for trades. 1st i exit 68 ahead of poc 68.5 (poc ont the chart i posted earlier today) and the next target was my value high 70 but price turned 69.75 missing my limit so i exit 68.5 on the close of the 5 range bar i look at.

really nice day today. lots of oppertunity...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fiki for this post:
 
  #77 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,510 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,267 given, 2,371 received


fiki View Post
david: looking at it after the fact the entry was not the best. in the previous bar there was some form of climax - 1000 contracts traded at the bottom 2 ticks - and after that buyers start to initiate. my tactic is to get in on the move as close as possible to the vpoc. usually it is not possible because it gets tested with a few contracts and u donīt get the fill. so i usually front it. in this case it tickted up and then down and test the vpoc. it stoped right in front of it and it just hangs there with just a few contracts traded at the bid. after that low buyers start to initiate and even though the delta was negative the pullback delta was positive. it starts to tick down again. not much action this time of the day. so i put a limit at the vpoc-level betting it will just tick down and fill it before buyers initiate again. then all of a sudden someone puts a +100 lot and causes it to go through the vpoc and fill my order.
now the entry was not good because i should have bought 1 tick above or not at all. if i get the fill where i put my limit the market will most likely trade trough it like it did. but even though sellers hit the bid hard the next bar trading more than 500 contracts i kept the position because they could not take it further down and the green bar with the 1000 in the bottom was evidence of responsive buyers.
So yes I view it as demand absorbing supply. Shure seller are aggressive hitting the bid but in this game with all the algos u have to be on the lookout for sneaky buyers. When I see bigger volume on the ladder than on the DOM I “know” something is up. To me size and on what side of the volume last price is trading is most important. I think orderflow is important for seeing a possible reversal but I belive levels are more important. Orderflow can change with 1 big lot… hope it makes some sense…


Fiki,

To be honest, I'm confused. I agree the level is important, but I thought that the thing to look for at a level if wanting to go long would be high volume at the ASK or lower volume at the BID. I then saw a recording on MarketDelta where they talked about the concept of high volume at a level where the demand is absorbing the supply, so even though there is a lot of selling at the bid in the bar it can be a sign of strength. If volume is high on the BID side at a level of support and it means they are hitting the bid hard, does it not also mean that someone is accumulating/buying at the level as well? I'm very new to reading orderflow and I'm wondering if I am looking for the right things. you say the entry was bad, but 2 tics of heat, seems minimal to me. Can you show some pics of what to look for a support and resistance in regards to orderflow? Also, was it more the Delta that gave you the clues? When you say pullback delta, do you mean the bar that you were filled on?

D

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
  #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 61 given, 430 received

David: I made this picture for u guys on the pullback data on Monday but for some reason i never got to post it. The second picture is from my journal on a entry i made that shows what i mean. The pullbackdata is the COT in OFA terms. But instead of a just the delta it shows a bar on the side of the developing bar. This is good because it gives u a glue on how the period will close. I trade from a 5tick rangebar chart and my trigger is usually the close of the bar. I define a momentumshift as a 5 tick reversal. By looking at the pullback i can hopefully get better trade location since iīm early.

First Iīm no expert but Iīve watched a lot of stuff concerning orderflow and I’ve been very actively trading it for a while now starting with pure DOM-trading and now with the breakdown indicator/ladder. Many are very sure of their technique - at least in their material. I have a different opinion. I think thereīs a lot of noise in the orderflow. Large trades are executed through algorithms and other size is based on calendar or inter-product spreads and so on. The markets purpose it to facilitate trade but the buyers/sellers are in the market for many different reasons, not just profiting from speculation. So for me value is the most important part of my trades. At least the successful ones. Intrabar orderflow comes second to me. I use the orderflow to help me handicap the odds in my trades.

Now concerning the bid/ask side. I think both ways u described are correct. If I go long I like to se a lot of trading at the ask because this evidence for buyers initiating trade. But there are 2 types of reversals: 1) sellers stops initiating/selling drys up. You se this in weak prints. Only a few contracts are traded at the bid at the pricelevel you are watching or if it is a retest less then on the previous test. 2)buyers start to respond (climax). This is the most common. Buyers start to accumulate and sellers over commit. You se this as a large volume node in the bar. If I se “big” volume at the bid after a rotation down and price reverses the sellers probably entered late and are wrong. So as long as price is over I view this as bullish. Many times the next bar makes a retest but its hard to get a fill at the vpoc since there is a lot of competition for contracts. A lot of short sellers will try to get out breakeven or with 1-2 tick loss. But if price goes under the node it the opposite. The knifecatchers, buyers, picked the wrong bottom and odds are itīs a continuation pattern. Now if your looking for long and price is over you don’t want to se a lot of volume at the levels above, especially at the bid because this shows that sellers are responding and initiating. U want to see just low volume and green flow when it clears the node. So it 2 different patterns: responsive and initiating.

Concerning the “bad” entry: it bad from a orderflow perspective. I got “lucky”. Now I would argue I made a good valuation and that’s why I made profit. Its bad out of orderflow perspective since price went under the high volume node and large traders wanted it to go down since they initiated large trades at the bid. So at the time of my fill I was opposite to the large orders. If I just went with the flow I should of sold. But probably other traders using algos made the same call as I since all that selling was absorbed in 2 ticks. The really bad call was entering on a limit at the vpoc. When u enter with a limit more often then not price will go through your order. The principle is most traders are wrong. So if you se a big number at the bid I DOM, they will be wrong either by not getting the fill and missing a great trade or by getting a fill and having price go against them. So if I believed I would get a fill at the vpoc using a limit order then logic dictates that I would get a print under vpoc witch would be bearish. Then it would be better to wait for the next bar to see what happens. Or if I belive this was the reversal I should have entered market 1 tick above the vpoc.

Don’t know if this clarifies it a bit. The thing is, itīs never easy or a sure bet. Like Steidlmayer expressed it : try to make the hardest trade rather than the easiest trade; if it's easier to sell, it's usually the wrong way to go, and vice versa.

This post was edited something like 5 times. Donīt know whats worong with me but i confused the words ask and bid all over. Sorry for this. Hopefully nobody read it yet.

Attached Thumbnails
CL Market Profile Analysis-footprint-price-statistics.png   CL Market Profile Analysis-entry.jpg  

Last edited by fiki; April 1st, 2010 at 05:23 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to fiki for this post:
 
  #79 (permalink)
Sharpening mental edge
the congo
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: North sea oil rig
Favorite Futures: Cl
 
rassi's Avatar
 
Posts: 827 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,159 given, 926 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Great posts david and fikki, my understanding is say you are looking for a long in a specific area, the senario of many sellers hitting the bid and then crucially getting trapped as price moves against them often results in a sharper impulse move as they get stopped out.

Whereas accumulation at that level can take longer to play out.

I would be interested to see some others comments on the vol divergance that benbrooke uses on his 500v chart, I have been following that and it gives some great signals combined with the profile and order flow.

Thanks!

Reply With Quote
 
  #80 (permalink)
Elite Member
sweden
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
fiki's Avatar
 
Posts: 212 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 61 given, 430 received


rassi. i think benbrookes vol divergency plays are great and i study them closely. its basicly the same thing as i wrote in the previous post. the volume bars shows u how much a constant volume factor drives price. with the delta momentum u look for a divergency where price moves in one direction but buying/selling drops off or moves into the opposite direction. compare to what i wrote on the intrabar analasys. the weak print. i get a retest with less initiating action. the vwap shows you objectively vertical movement. that is when price has moved away from the ”fair price” that much that warrents you attention.

there are many ways of looking at a chart. the chartsetup i show works for me. i use rangebar and iīm profitable with that so i don’t feel the need to try the volume bar chart approach. but i also look at divergences and have my way of measuring vertical movement.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fiki for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > CL Market Profile Analysis

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market analysis with SQL shodson Platforms and Indicators 8 March 28th, 2015 12:45 AM
Day Time TJ for CL starting 2/22 with pre mkt & post-mortem analysis spartacus Trading Journals 53 April 28th, 2011 01:05 AM
market profile? jrs659 Traders Hideout 6 September 24th, 2010 09:45 PM
CL rollover adjustment & volume profile charts neko333 Commodities Futures Trading 19 September 13th, 2010 04:02 PM
ES/YM Market Profile Analysis David_R Emini Index Futures Trading 37 August 24th, 2010 05:50 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:41 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.93.187